CATASTROPHE AND RATIONAL POLICY: CASE OF NATIONAL SECURITY

Predicting catastrophes involves heavy‐tailed distributions with no mean, eluding proactive policy as expected cost‐benefit analysis fails. We study US government counterterrorism policy, given heightened risk of terrorism. But terrorism also involves human behavior. We synthesize the behavioral and statistical aspects in an adversary‐defender game. Calibration to extensive data shows that where a Weibull distribution is the best predictor, US counterterrorism policy is rational (and optimal). Here, we estimate the adversary's unobserved variables, e.g., difficulty of an attack. We also find cases where the best predictor is a Generalized‐Pareto with no finite mean and rational policy fails. Here, we offer “work‐arounds”. (JEL H56, D81, C46)     

Patients' Evaluations of the Mental Health Service at a Health Sciences Campus

Abstract

Health science students, along with the health professionals they hope to become, are at increased risk for certain occupational injuries and illnesses. One of these risks is occupational exposure to blood-borne pathogens, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis, which may result in severe illnesses or even death. Two case studies demonstrate postexposure care of exposed individuals at the University of Texas Medical Branch Student Health Services before and after policy changes and prevention strategies were strengthened in response to exposure incidents.     

Verbetrieblichung und betrieblicher Konflikt

Since the 1990s there is an ongoing process of decentralisation and ??Verbetrieblichung?? in German labour regulation. The opening of regional sector-level collective agreements for additional specific bargaining at the plant level is evaluated and discussed by practitioners and scholars very controversially. Critics of the decentralisation trends expect an increase of distributive conflicts inside plants and companies. The article analyses whether there are actually signs for an increase of conflicts in firm-level industrial relations in this context, and if so, under which conditions conflicts are likely to occur. Based in theoretical considerations, the article analyses the influence of different patterns of collective agreements on the incidence of conflicts and the relationship between employers and employees at firm level. Empirical data stems from a representative survey that includes interviews with management and employee representatives from German private sector companies. The data suggest some evidence on the conflict reducing function of industry-level collective agreements. Changes in a firm??s regulation structure appear to increase conflicts.     

Percentile Related Bounds and Estimator for the Mean of the Negative Binomial Distribution

Upper and lower bounds are obtained for the mean of the negative binomial distribution. These bounds are simple functions of a percentile determined by the shape parameter. The result is then used to obtain a robust estimate of the mean when the shape parameter is known.     

Codependent VAR models and the pseudo-structural form

This paper investigates whether codependence restrictions can be uniquely imposed on VAR models via the so-called pseudo-structural form used in the literature. Codependence of order q is given if a linear combination of autocorrelated variables eliminates the serial correlation after q lags. Importantly, maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood ratio testing are only possible if the codependence restrictions can be uniquely imposed. Applying the pseudo-structural form, our study reveals that this is not generally the case, but that unique imposition is guaranteed in several important special cases.     

Disabled Persons Support: The Serial Literature

Abstract

The authors anticipate that the primary use of this analysis will be to demonstrate journal price fluctuations by discipline and country of origin to department heads, university and hospital administrators, and others concerned (or who should be concerned) with the costs of health information. The authors expect to repeat this study on an annual basis and would welcome any comments.     

EARLY EVIDENCE ON RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION AND TRAFFIC FATALITIES

Over the last few years, marijuana has become legally available for recreational use to roughly a quarter of Americans. Policy makers have long expressed concerns about the substantial external costs of alcohol, and similar costs could come with the liberalization of marijuana policy. Indeed, the fraction of fatal accidents in which at least one driver tested positive for tetrahydrocannabinol has increased nationwide by an average of 10% from 2013 to 2016. For Colorado and Washington, both of which legalized marijuana in 2014, these increases were 92% and 28%, respectively. However, identifying a causal effect is difficult due to the presence of significant confounding factors. We test for a causal effect of marijuana legalization on traffic fatalities in Colorado and Washington with a synthetic control approach using records on fatal traffic accidents from 2000 to 2016. We find the synthetic control groups saw similar changes in marijuana-related, alcohol-related, and overall traffic fatality rates despite not legalizing recreational marijuana. (JEL K42, I12, I18)     

LOG-LINEAR MODELS FOR MEAN AND DISPERSION IN MIXED POISSON REGRESSION MODELS

This paper is concerned with the analysis of repeated measures count data overdispersed relative to a Poisson distribution, with the overdispersion possibly heterogeneous. To accommodate the overdispersion, the Poisson random variable is compounded with a gamma random variable, and both the mean of the Poisson and the variance of the gamma are modelled using log linear models. Maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) are then obtained. The paper also gives extended quasi-likelihood estimates for a more general class of compounding distributions which are shown to be approximations to the MLEs obtained for the gamma case. The theory is illustrated by modelling the determination of asbestos fibre intensity on membrane filters mounted on microscope slides.