Dealing with uncertainty: statistics for an aging population

"Uncertainty in statistics and demographic projections for aging and other policy purposes comes from four sources: differences in definitions, sampling error, nonsampling error, and scientific uncertainty. Some of these uncertainties can be reduced by proper planning and coordination, but most often decisions have to be made in the face of some remaining uncertainty. Although decision makers have a tendency to ignore uncertainty, doing so does not lead to good policy-making. Techniques for estimating and reporting on uncertainty include sampling theory, assessment of experts' subjective distributions, sensitivity analysis, and multiple independent estimates." The primary geographical focus is on the United States.     

Eastern European countries in the context of a demographic transition typology

An attempt is made to develop a typology of the demographic transition based on the experience of 23 European countries. The typology is then used to examine the characteristics of the demographic transition in the socialist countries of Eastern Europe.     

Fertility in Poland during the 1980s: analysis of a maternity questionnaire

Recent fertility trends in Poland are analyzed using data from a mail survey conducted in 1984. The demographic, social, and economic characteristics of women who gave birth in 1984, their husbands, and their parents are examined. The results show an increase in fertility in the early 1980s, particularly in urban areas.     

Spatial differentiation of the socioeconomic composition of the population

Differences in population characteristics among the administrative districts of Poland are analyzed. The characteristics examined include density, place of employment, urban population growth, population employed in agriculture, and migration.     

Fertility decline in Bangladesh: an emerging family planning success story

Bangladesh has a population of 115 million people, and the economic growth rate of 3.7% during the 1980s was undermined by rapid population growth. The annual population growth rate was 3% in the 1960s and early 1970s, 2.5% between 1981-91 decreasing to 2.3% in 1991. The average of number of children is 4.6/woman compared with 7 in the 1960s. Infant mortality dropped from 150/1000 births in 1976 to 118/1000 in 1991. Life expectancy rose from 47 to 54 years. The 1991 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey showed that 39.9% of married women under 50 use contraceptives in 1991 vs. 18.6% in 1981. The use of modern methods increased from 10.9% in 1981 to 31.2% in 1991, while traditional methods rose from 7.7% to 8.7%. Sterilization was most prevalent in 1981. 29,000 female family planning (FP) workers were aggressively engaged in dispensing FP services in 1990. The Social Marketing Company sells pills, condoms, and oral rehydration salts through 130,000 retail outlets. The 1989 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey showed that 40% of pill and condom users obtained them from this network, and 95.4% of women knew about 4 methods of contraception. In 1990 there were 120 private organizations providing contraceptive services. Some of the components of the government FP program include field worker distribution door-to-door of injectable contraceptives (50% injectable usage rate in the Matlab project); recordkeeping activities; a satellite clinic network with access to contraceptive services; and decentralization through the Upazila (subdistrict) approach. The logistics system of FP has improved the warehousing, transportation, and management information system. Foreign aid (mainly USAID) financing of contraceptives helped avert 14.4 million births between 1974-90. The increase of contraceptive prevalence to 50% by 1997 would avert another 21.9 million births during 1991-96 (replacement fertility requires 70% prevalence.     

The timing of maternity in the Netherlands

In this paper the timing of maternity is estimated by a hazard model. The novel aspect of this paper is that it is shown that wages and total household labor income have a significant effect on the timing of maternity. Both the wage rate of the woman and the wage rate of the husband have a negative effect on the timing of maternity. Total household labor income increases the probability of having a child at an earlier age. Calculated elasticities show that the timing of maternity is relatively elastic with respect to wage rates. However, the elasticities of the decision whether or not to have children altogether are much smaller. Women working in the labor market delay the timing of maternity compared to non-participating women. Attending school has the same effect. Until the age of 28 the maternity hazard increases with age, after that it decreases.We benefited from comments on previous drafts by Siv Gustafsson, Joop Hartog, Peter Kee, Herriette Maassen van den Brink, Eddie Mekkelholt, Joop Odink, Hessel Oosterbeek, Hans van Ophem, Gusta Renes, Andre Voskamp, two anonymous referees, and the Managing Editor of this Journal. This paper is a revised version of a paper presented at the third annual meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, Paris, June 1989. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Effective boards: how executive directors define and develop them

There is growing recognition in the nonprofit field that the executive director has a key role in determining whether the board of directors will function effectively. To aid executives in this vital role, two recent studies defined a "good board" from the point of view of two samples of executive directors of community agencies, then sought factors related to board performance as measured by this definition. In interviews, executives whose boards scored higher than their peers on this performance measurement related how they work with their boards in such areas as recruitment of new members, financial management, fundraising, and leadership development.     

Saving and consumption patterns of the elderly

The paper provides an empirical analysis of saving and consumption choices of the elderly in Germany, based on the German income and expenditure surveys 1978 and 1983. Main feature of these data is the large sample size making it possible to analyze saving and consumption patterns of the very old (aged 75 and above).The observed age-consumption profiles are very different from those predicted by the pure life-cycle theory. Although wealth is declining between age 60 and 70, it increases again after 70, such that the very old have the highest savings rates among all age groups and accumulate wealth rather than decumulate it. These profiles are not confounded by cohort effects and mortality differences. The corresponding expenditure data suggest the following explanation: due to the generous German pension system and the almost complete coverage of health expenses by the mandatory health insurance in Germany, the declining consumption n very old age cannot exhaust the annuity income of the elderly such that wealth is being accumulated in old age.Research in this paper was supported by the National Institute on Aging, grant no. 3 PO1 AG05842-01. I appreciate the helpful comments by Doug Bernheim, Angus Deaton, Daniel McFadden, Jonathan Skinner, Konrad 'Stahl and David Wise, and two anonymous referees. I am indebted to Hermann Buslei and Johannes Velling who provided most valuable and able assistance.