Voting cycles and the structure of individual preferences

Empirical studies have shown that cyclical preferences are infrequent, but they have been less clear about why. Using thermometer ratings from nationally-representative samples of the U.S., we examine preferences for presidential candidates in order to determine what it is about them that leads to few cycles. Single-peaked preferences as usually construed (meaning that all of a set of preferences satisfy single-peakedness criteria) are, of course, rare. Yet we find a high degree of unidimensionality in the sense that for any given set of preferences, a relatively high proportion of the preference orders are consistent with single-peakedness. We also find that the highest amounts of unidimensionality often do not occur along partisan or left/right lines. Strong feelings for or against candidates, often not derived from an issue base, form the basis for the dimensionality discovered.We would like to thank Daniel Severance for programming the random model calculations and three anonymous referees, whose comments were very helpful in clarifying the presentation in this paper.     

WHY THE DEMOCRAT-REPUBLICAN PARTISANSHIP GAP VARIES FROM POLL TO POLL

Polls taken in late 1980 and 1984 varied by up to 20 pointsin the spread they reported between Democratic and Republicanidentifiers. We found three systematic and sizable differencesacross polls: polls that sample only voters, polls that emphasize"today" or the present in their question wording, and pollsthat are taken close to election day (at least in circumstanceslike those of 1984) tend to favor the party currently advantagedin the presidential race.     

Marriage and conjugal roles in Swaziland: persistence and change

"This paper examines one set of relationships central to the Swazi household--marriage and conjugal roles--and how those relationships have changed over the last half century. Information has been analyzed on such topics as types of marriages contracted, the age at marriage, choice of spouse, attitudes towards and participation in polygyny, the nature of conjugal roles, and the question of divorce. This study has drawn upon a wide range of sources including (1) an analysis of civil records from the office of the District Commissioner in Manzini, Swaziland; (2) data collected previously by other social scientists; and (3) survey data gathered especially for this study. The study concludes that while changes have occurred, many traditional patterns of marriage and family continue to be important in contemporary Swazi society."     

The seasons of a CEO's tenure

This article proposes a model of the dynamics of the CEO's tenure in office. The central argument is that there are discernible phases, or seasons, within an executive's tenure in a position, and that these seasons give rise to distinct patterns of executive attention, behavior, and, ultimately, organizational performance. The five delineated seasons are (a) response to mandate, (b) experimentation, (c) selection of an enduring theme, (d) convergence, and (e) dysfunction. The theoretical and practical implications of the model are discussed.     

Migration,race and ethnicity, 1960-1980

"This article compares racial and ethnic patterns in interstate and interregional migration in the years 1960 to 1980.... This research looks at geographical assimilation--the extent to which patterns of migration and regional distribution of minority groups resemble those of whites. Attention is directed to United States-born Asian Americans, blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans and whites, and attempts to answer the following questions: 1) To what extent do the patterns of interstate migration of these groups resemble one another? 2) To what extent do the regional distributions and patterns of net regional migration of these groups resemble one another?" This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 495).     

Problems in measuring role strains and social functioning in relation to psychological symptoms

The problems that people experience in social roles can be regarded as either causes or consequences of psychological symptoms. To reflect one of these possibilities, Pearlin et al. (1981) developed measures of "role strains" which are considered sources of psychopathology. To reflect the other position, Dohrenwend et al. (1981) constructed measures of "role functioning" which are seen as consequences of psychopathology. We show that the measures developed by these two teams of investigators are similar in content and show substantial empirical overlap despite the different meanings attributed to them. In an effort to understand whether these highly correlated measures assess, "role strain" or "role functioning," we conduct an exploratory analysis of marital and housework role problems, using a small panel sample of New York City residents. Specifically, we use instrumental variables to identify reciprocal effects between psychological distress and each role area. We find that the relationship between housework role problems and distress is more consistent with Pearlin et al.'s interpretation, whereas the relationship between marital problems and distress is more consistent with that of Dohrenwend et al. Investigators interested in measuring either role strain or role functioning must bear in mind the strong possibility of contamination from the other construct.     

Bringing baby home: a comprehensive case management program for obstetrical services

Originally presented to the Society of Home Health Care Management of the American College of Physician Executives at its November 16, 1993, meeting in Tucson, Ariz., the program described in this article was the winner of the College's 1994 Innovations Award in Medical Quality Management, sponsored by Merck Sharp & Dohme. The program shows the potential of case management for both improvement in the quality of care and containment of costs for a managed care population with a substantial Medicaid segment. This article is part of a continuing series on innovative programs in home health care.