A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL

In the 1967 Harvard-Cornell football game, Harvard was ahead 14–0 late in the game when Cornell scored two touchdowns. On both occasions, Cornell tried and failed on the two-point conversion attempt and lost the game 14–12. Postgame arguments were divided on the merits of Cornell's strategy. For this frequently occurring scenario in college football, we derive a maximum expected utility decision rule for the decision of kicking versus running/passing based on the relative utility of a win, a tie, or a loss and the probabilities of success with a kick as opposed to a run/pass.     

DEVIL'S ADVOCACY AND DIALECTICAL INQUIRY EFFECTS ON PREDICTION PERFORMANCE: TASK INVOLVEMENT AS A MEDIATING VARIABLE

Critics of previous laboratory experiments comparing devil's advocacy (DA) to dialectical inquiry (DI) have suggested that these experiments produced misleading results because (1) they used subjects who had low levels of task involvement and (2) the DI treatment used was confusing to subjects and required further explanation to be useful. The present study examines the effects of four inquiry methods—expert (E), DA, DI, and DI with explanatory statement (DI+)—on subjects' performance at a financial prediction task. Results show that DA, DI, and DI + were superior to E when the state of the world differed significantly from assumptions underlying the expert's plan. For subjects with high task involvement, DI and DI + were more effective than E and DA. The results support some of the criticisms of previous laboratory research and suggest that future research on these decision aids should include task involvement as a factor.     

AN ANALYSIS OF CAPACITY PLANNING PROCEDURES FOR A MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING SYSTEM*

This paper is concerned with planning work-center capacity levels in manufacturing firms that employ a material requirements planning (MRP) system. It presents four procedures for developing work-center capacity plans designed to insure the production of components and assemblies as specified by the MRP plan and the master production schedule (MPS). These procedures (capacity planning using overall factors, capacity bills, resource profiles, and capacity requirements planning) are compared using simulation analysis. The results indicate that the performance of a procedure when measured against the MPS depends on the operating conditions of the manufacturing system. The results also indicate that the choice of a particular procedure often represents a compromise among the benefits of improved MPS performance, the costs of preparing and processing data, and the premium expenses required for more frequent adjustments in work-center capacity levels.     

关于幼儿双语教学可行性的探讨

文章主要从幼儿的语言学习能力角度分析幼儿双语教学的可行性,运用乔姆斯基的语言天生说和语言学习临界期的观点,得出儿童学习语言具有成人所不具备的优势,并引用国外学者的研究成果来进一步证实此结论.在此基础上分析了外语学习对幼儿语言、认知及社会性方面发展的促进作用以及在幼儿双语教学中应注意的问题.旨在让读者更加了解幼儿双语教学,并结合本地区在师资等教育资源方面的具体情况来实施双语教学,以促进我国幼儿双语教学的发展.     

THE EFFECT AND COST OF FORECAST ERROR BIAS FOR MULTIPLE-STAGE PRODUCTION-INVENTORY SYSTEMS

This paper examines forecast error with an intention not to minimize forecast error so much as to bias the resultant error in order to achieve better managerial results. Much work has been accomplished by other researchers toward the goal of minimizing forecast error—sometimes by the use of sophisticated forecasting techniques. The results of this paper indicate that manipulating forecast error bias may be the better managerial strategy as opposed to going to great lengths to minimize forecast error. Subject Areas: Forecasting, Aggregate Planning, Capacity Planning, and Production/Operations Management.     

A CANONICAL ANALYSIS OF MANAGERIAL-ENVIRONMENTAL RELATIONSHIPS: IMPLICATIONS FOR METHODOLOGY AND POLICY*

The present study uses canonical analysis to examine the contingency model of organizations in the nursing home field. Data on environmental pressures and managerial practices relevant to the decision-making process are analyzed. Results support the theory that managerial practices are contingent on environmental pressures. The implications of these results for health-care decision makers and for future assessments of managerial-environmental relationships are discussed.     

A NOTE ON THE USE OF SELECTED NONFINANCIAL RATIO VARIABLES TO PREDICT SMALL-BUSINESS LOAN PERFORMANCE*

Small business loan applications have not been evaluated successfully by traditional methods. This paper explores the possibility of using three types of nonfinancial ratio variables (owner, firm, and loan characteristics) to predict whether a small business will pay off or default its loan. The owner and loan variables were better predictors of loan success than the firm variables.     

DEGENERACY AND THE (MIS)INTERPRETATION OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN LINEAR PROGRAMMING

Under conditions of degeneracy, sensitivity analysis information such as cost and right-hand-side ranges, which are produced by standard linear programming procedures used in commercial codes, can be misleading. From a managerial perspective, the interpretation of such information can be erroneous. In this paper we present these problems, explain their occurence with elementary examples, and discuss procedures for their resolution.     

适于大视场空间相机应用的高性能ADV212控制器

针对现有基于ADV212压缩系统的ADV212控制器难以满足空间TDICCD相机的应用,提出了一种适于大视场空间TDICCD相机的高性能ADV212控制器。首先,分析了ADV212工作原理,结合CCD数据特点,提出了Custom-specific模式工作机制,在该机制下,使用乒乓操作的SDRAM构造图像帧,并以流水线作业的方式实现单片ADV212处理5通道CCD数据。最后,使用地面检测设备对ADV212控制器进行了试验验证。结果表明,ADV212控制器能快速稳定地工作,压缩一帧图像仅需7.68 ms。在压缩比指标2:1~32:1内,PSNR均在30 dB以上,在正常工作压缩比为1 bpp时平均PSNR提高了2.49 dB。该控制器满足了空间相机压缩系统的应用。     

A MINIMUM-COST AUDIT SAMPLING METHODOLOGY UNDER CONDITIONS OF PREDETERMINED BETA RISK

This paper presents a minimum-cost methodology for determining a statistical sampling plan in substantive audit tests. In this model, the auditor specifies β, the risk of accepting an account balance as correct when it is not, according to audit evidence requirements. Using β as a constraint, the auditor then selects a sampling plan to optimize the trade-off between sampling costs and the costs of follow-up audit procedures. Tables to aid in this process and an illustration are provided.