Nonparametric predictive inference for stock returns

In finance, inferences about future asset returns are typically quantified with the use of parametric distributions and single-valued probabilities. It is attractive to use less restrictive inferential methods, including nonparametric methods which do not require distributional assumptions about variables, and imprecise probability methods which generalize the classical concept of probability to set-valued quantities. Main attractions include the flexibility of the inferences to adapt to the available data and that the level of imprecision in inferences can reflect the amount of data on which these are based. This paper introduces nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for stock returns. NPI is a statistical approach based on few assumptions, with inferences strongly based on data and with uncertainty quantified via lower and upper probabilities. NPI is presented for inference about future stock returns, as a measure for risk and uncertainty, and for pairwise comparison of two stocks based on their future aggregate returns. The proposed NPI methods are illustrated using historical stock market data.     

The great antagonism that never was: unexpected affinities between religion and education in post-secular society

A persistent sociological thesis posits that the spread of formal education causes an inevitable decline in religion as a social institution and diminishes adherence to religious beliefs in postindustrial society. Now that worldwide advanced education is a central agent in developing and disseminating Western rationality emphasizing science as the ultimate truth claim about a humanly constructed society and the natural world this seems an ever more relevant thesis. Yet in the face of a robust “education revolution,” religion and spirituality endure, and in certain respects thrive, thus creating a sociological paradox: How can both expanding education and mass religion coexist? The solution proposed here is that instead of educational development setting the conditions for the decline and eventual death of religion, the two institutions have been, and continue to be, more compatible and even surprisingly symbiotic than is often assumed. This contributes to a culture of mass education and mass religion that is unique in the history of human society, exemplified by the heavily educated and churched United States. After a brief review of the empirical trends behind the paradox, a new confluence of streams of research on compatible worldviews, overlapping ideologies, and their enactments in educational and religious social movements illustrates the plausibility of an affinity argument and its impact on theory about post-secular society.

     

The Economic Payout Model for Service Guarantees

Service guarantees consist of a promise to a customer (marketing), the delivery of a service to the customer (operations), and actions to appease the customer when service failures happen (recovery). A part of recovery involves offering the customer an economic and/or noneconomic payout when things go wrong. When the economic payout is too high or low, the impact on the organization and the customer is usually negative. Therefore, determining the size of the economic payout is of critical strategic and tactical importance in businesses. Yet, no systematic quantitative methods are found in the literature to help managers determine the economic payout for service failures. The current ways an economic payout is determined are management judgment, the consensus of customer focus groups, competitive benchmarking, and the use of simple expected value methods. In this article, we define the Economic Payout Model for Service Guarantees (EPMSG) that provides an optimal service guarantee economic payout under certain conditions. The EPMSG and its objective function considers customer revenue over the short‐ and long‐term, the cost of creating and providing the service, the cost of recovery, the probability of a service failure, and the probability of customer retention as a function of economic payout. A numerical example is provided of how EPMSG works. Customer retention probability distributions are examined assuming normal and gamma distributions. We end the article by describing the theoretical contributions, model limitations, managerial implications, and opportunities for future research.     

Women's provisioning work: counting the cost for women living on low income

This paper reports on a research project that uses the concept of provisioning as a starting place in understanding the activities women in marginalized communities undertake to provide for themselves and members of their households and neighborhoods. This project explores the household and collective provisioning undertaken by women who are all part of formal community organizations in Canada. The work women do is explored from the dimension of women's relationships of responsibility. This vantage point uncovers a complex web of activity including paid employment, voluntary work, care work, exchanges of goods and services, community work, and self-provisioning. In addition, the provisioning strategies that women use when public resources are scarce are explored. In the face of significant cutbacks in public provision of goods and services, women are engaging in a complex network of activities in order to compensate through private provisioning for resources that are no longer available through public provisioning. The policy context in which these strategies are pursued is explored as well as the way in which risky policies produce risky coping strategies.     

Exploring Contrasting Formulations of Expectancy Theory*

The explanatory potential of four forms of expectancy theory with additive and multiplicative expectancy terms and linear and nonlinear valence functions were contrasted. A behavioral decision-making theory approach was used when 101 subjects were asked to make 128 hypothetical job-choice decisions. More than 25,800 decisions under a within-subjects framework were analyzed. Results indicate that the majority (83 percent) of subjects employed additive or multiplicative expectancy models with linear valence functions. However, the predictive efficacy of the expectancy theory model was improved for 17 percent of the subjects when nonlinear valence terms were introduced. The findings imply that different functional forms of expectancy theory may be needed to model individuals' decision-making processes.     

Issue definition in rights‐based policy focused on the experiences of individuals with disabilities: an examination of Canadian parliamentary discourse

In issue definition in rights‐based policy Canada stereotypically embraces a more positive, human rights‐centered approach as compared with the American stereotype associated with the USA’s more presumptively negative, civil rights‐based tack. Since exclusionary infrastructures violate the core values of democratic governance, a failure to address unnecessarily exclusive infrastructures presents a rights‐based public challenge surrounding disability akin to those experienced by other non‐elite groups. Analysis of disability policy serves to clarify positive versus negative tendencies in rights‐based policy, including whether the expectation of a primarily positive basis in Canada is confirmed. This article examines the definition of public dimensions of the experiences of individuals with autism as a case reflecting the basis of construction of rights in Canada.     

Professionalization of evaluative research: Conflict as a sign of health

Morell and Flaherty (1978) present arguments about the current status of evaluative research as a profession. This paper contains a critique, using a process model of professional development, of the perspectives employed by Morell and Flaherty. Issues discussed are the nature and substance of conflicts in evaluative research, including conflicts over methodological perspectives, the role of the evaluator in program planning, and the appropriate uses and users of evaluative information. The paper concludes with a discussion of the needs within the profession of evaluative research if it is to remain viable and responsive to change.     

Urbanization and warming of Phoenix (Arizona,USA): Impacts,feedbacks and mitigation

This paper examines the impacts, feedbacks, and mitigation of the urban heat island in Phoenix, Arizona (USA). At Sky Harbor Airport, urbanization has increased the nighttime minimum temperature by 5°C and the average daily temperatures by 3.1°C. Urban warming has increased the number of misery hours per day for humans, which may have important social consequences. Other impacts include (1) increased energy consumption for heating and cooling of buildings, (2) increased heat stress (but decreased cold stress) for plants, (3) reduced quality of cotton fiber and reduced dairy production on the urban fringe, and (4) a broadening of the seasonal thermal window for arthropods. Climate feedback loops associated with evapotranspiration, energy production and consumption associated with increased air conditioning demand, and land conversion are discussed. Urban planning and design policy could be redesigned to mitigate urban warming, and several cities in the region are incorporating concerns regarding urban warming into planning codes and practices. The issue is timely and important, because most of the world's human population growth over the next 30 years will occur in cities in warm climates.