曹植诗歌中的泰山情结

由于生活环境和政治方面的原因,曹植的诗歌,尤其是游仙诗中出现了不少与泰山有关的内容。本文试从曹植诗歌中这一特点的原因及现实意义来进行探讨。     

上海人口城市化和再分布发展态势

本文主要通过对历次人口普查数据的分析,指出城市人口郊区化与农村人口城市化共同加快推进,是上海人口再分布的主旋律;上海人口城市化仍相对滞后于经济发展和非农化水平;外来人口对上海人口城市化和再分布有着重要影响;人口城市化和再分布实质上是一个深刻的社会重构过程。     

民间与经典的整合——论京剧三国戏的艺术特征

罗贯中《三国演义》书成,便产生了广泛的社会影响,后通过清初毛伦、毛宗岗父子的整理和评点,这部长篇历史小说中的故事和人物可谓家喻户晓,妇孺皆知。剧作者将其改编成各种戏曲,在宫廷、城市和乡村的舞台上频繁演出。京剧中的三国戏蔚为大观,这与《三国演义》的广泛传播密不可分,同时京剧三国戏又深受民间文学的影响,可以说,京剧三国戏的艺术特征是在经典名著《三国演义》与民间文学的双重影响下而形成的。     

多元文化背景下增强高职思政课教学实效性路径探析

多元文化的发展潮流,给高职院校思想政治教育主渠道建设提出了严重的挑战。只有更新教育理念、优化教学内容、创新教学方法、大力推进实践教学,才能提升高职思想政治理论课教学的针对性和实效性,引导高职学生树立正确的世界观、人生观和价值观。     

A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR MODELLING WILDLIFE POPULATION DYNAMICS†

This paper proposes a unified framework for defining and fitting stochastic, discrete‐time, discrete‐stage population dynamics models. The biological system is described by a state‐space model, where the true but unknown state of the population is modelled by a state process, and this is linked to survey data by an observation process. All sources of uncertainty in the inputs, including uncertainty about model specification, are readily incorporated. The paper shows how the state process can be represented as a generalization of the standard Leslie or Lefkovitch matrix. By dividing the state process into subprocesses, complex models can be constructed from manageable building blocks. The paper illustrates the approach with a model of the British grey seal metapopulation, using sequential importance sampling with kernel smoothing to fit the model.     

大学英语体验式教学探讨

体验式教学是“‘以学生为中心＇、‘以任务为基础＇,让学生通过‘具体体验＇来‘发现＇语言使用原则并能够应用到实际交流中的大学英语教学方法”.体验式教学的关键在于体验情境的设计.只有创设合适的情境,才能体现交际教学的原则.     

冲突处理模式的维度划分与测量

作为在组织日常生活中无法避免的现象之一,冲突之于团队及其成员的影响作用存在极大的不确定性,这不仅取决于冲突的内容和强度,更重要的是如何应对.冲突处理模式的选择不仅直接影响到个人与其他团队成员的关系,也在一定程度上决定了个人与团队的绩效和产出.冲突处理模式是一个多维度的概念,主流的二维模型将常见的冲突应对方式分为竞争、协作、妥协、回避和顺从五类,并在此基础上开发了五大经典测量量表--CMS、MODE、OCCI、CMMS和ROCI-Ⅱ.这些测量工具在后续经验研究过程中得到了不同程度的验证和支持,在对其各自的条款内容、心理测量属性和优缺点进行一番比较之后,可以发现其中普遍存在的问题,如信度偏低、效度检验方法单一、社会称许性偏差影响显著等.基础理论模型的完善与测量工具的修正将成为日后研究的重点之一.     

Social class and workers’ rent, 1983–2001

Sociologists and economists continue to seek explanations for the growth of earnings inequality since the late 1970s. In this article, we draw upon the structural tradition of labor market analysis in sociology in order evaluate the conjecture that selective rent destruction is a source of the recent increase in earnings inequality. In empirical analysis of the Outgoing Rotation Groups of the Current Population Surveys from 1983 to 2001, we demonstrate that (1) the earnings of workers at the bottom of the class distribution have declined relative to the earnings of those at the top and (2) the variance of wage premia associated with employment in alternative industries has declined relatively more for those at the bottom of the class distribution. Adopting the position from both the sociology and labor economics literatures that these industry wage premia are reasonable measures of industry rents, we conclude that the results support the rent destruction conjecture and, by implication, that structural models of labor markets can explain some of the increase in earnings inequality.     

Uncertainty and the Value of Information with Stochastic Losses from Global Warming

We present an uncertainty analysis conducted using CETA-R, a model in which the costs of climate change are specified as Risks of large losses. In this analysis, we assume that three key parameters may each take on "high" or "low" values, leading to eight possible states of the world. We then explore optimal policies when the state of the world is known, and under uncertainty. Also, we estimate the benefits of resolving uncertainty earlier. We find that the optimal policy under uncertainty is similar to the policy that is optimal when each of the key parameters is at its low value. We also find that the value of immediate uncertainty resolution rises sharply as the alternative to immediate resolution is increasingly delayed resolution.     

Probability Distributions for Showering and Bathing Water-Use Behavior for Various U.S. Subpopulations

It has been shown that bathroom-type water uses dominate personal exposure to water-borne contaminants in the home. Therefore, in assessing exposure of specific population groups to the contaminants in the water, understanding population water-use behavior for bathroom activities as a function of demographic characteristics is vital to realistic exposure estimates. In this article, shower and bath frequencies and durations are analyzed, presented, and compared for various demographic groups derived from analyses of the National Human Activities Pattern Survey (NHAPS) database and the Residential End Uses of Water Study (REUWS) database as well as from a review of current literature. Analysis showed that age and level of education significantly influenced shower and bath frequency and duration. The frequency of showering and bathing reported in NHAPS agreed reasonably well with previous studies; however, durations of these events were found to be significantly longer. Showering frequency reported in REUWS was slightly less than that reported for NHAPS; however, durations of showers reported in REUWS are consistent with other studies. After considering the strengths and weaknesses of each data set and comparing their results to previous studies, it is concluded that NHAPS provides more reliable frequency data, while REUWS provides more reliable duration data. The shower- and bath-use behavior parameters recommended in this article can aid modelers in appropriately specifying water-use behavior as a function of demographic group in order to conduct reasonable assessments of exposure to contaminants that enter the home via the water supply.