General equilibrium with information sales

Consider a general equilibrium model in which information is an indivisible differentiated commodity for which satiation occurs at one unit. Suppose that uncountably many types of information are possible which can be costlessly combined by agents who desire information only because it helps them to maximize state dependent utilities under uncertainty. Similarity of information is expressed by a metric which reflects substitution possibilities among different information structures. Such a large pure exchange economy in which prices for (differentiated) information structures and (finitely many) ordinary commodities are determined simultaneously is consistent - equilibrium distributions exist.     

The Effects of the Registration System on the Seasonality of Births: The Case of the Soviet Union

Scientists study seasonality in order to understand the effect of environmental, biological, and social factors on demographic events. Poor data quality can also affect seasonal variation in mortality and fertility statistics. The influence of error on seasonal data becomes crucial as researchers analyze timing and spacing of events in time-series analyses. In this study we examine the reported number of births by month in the Soviet Union for 1950, 1955, and 1958–85. The lowest number of births has typically occurred in December, and the highest in January. This seasonal pattern is not consistent with any plausible biological or behavioural explanation. It is probably an artifact of attributing births that actually occurred during the preceding December or earlier, to January. This implies that Soviet statistical practice has not followed the stated policy of attributing births to the period (day, month, year) in which they occur. A substantial reduction between the 1950s and 1985 in the December-January peak in reported births implies marked improvement in Soviet vital registration statistics. The Soviet case shows that characteristics of the registration system can impart a particular seasonal pattern to demographic data. It also shows that officially prescribed procedures are not always followed in data generation, even in centrally planned economies. Researchers should carefully examine the quality of seasonal data before concluding that the data reflect real variations in demographic behaviour.     

Pragmatics of Self- and Other-Reference in Young Children

During the first years of life, children come to understand and talk about a self separate from others. This study examined self- and other-reference and communicative intents expressed by children and parents in dyadic interaction at 14, 20 and 32 months. Research questions included whether children's early use of self- and other-reference pronouns occurred for expression of particular communicative intents, how use changed with age, and whether parent and child pragmatic expressions of self and other were similar. Results showed that children's early explicit reference to self tended to take the form of I rather than me/my/mine, and was used primarily in making statements about their intended actions, in making requests or proposals to their parents and in stating propositions about the world around them. Children during this developmental period were only beginning to refer to the present other with the pronoun you and these instances occurred primarily in making requests or proposals. Despite age-related increases in pronominal forms and intents, a small set of intents continued to provide the context for most self- and other-reference pronouns. In the communicative contexts in which they explicitly refer to self and other, children did not appear to exclusively mirror those which were observed in parental speech.     

Conceptual frameworks and the philosophical foundations of general living systems theory

The continued expansion and fragmentation of biological disciplines impede education, communication, and efficient advance of biological research. Reversing these trends may require a unification of theories and concepts from all levels of biological organization. One form of this unification is the statement of generalizations that apply to all living systems. We explore the philosophical foundations of general theories of living systems by analyzing conceptual frameworks as they apply to biology. This analysis examines the relation of empirical observation, theories, and conceptual frameworks within the context of an individual scientist's conceptual continuum. Also presented are a small set of translevel generalizations that articulate our conceptual framework of living systems in terms of organismic system organization, the environmental system-organismic system dyad, system capacity, and system incorporation. A set of procedural rules are stated which suggest minimum criteria for the evaluation of the explanatory adequacy of biological theories. The relation of this work to other similar analyses and syntheses of biological knowledge is discussed.     

“Just a Typical Teenager”: The Social Ecology of “Normal Adolescence”—Insights from Diabetes Care

In Western society “normal adolescence” is understood to be a biologically driven phase characterized by emotional turmoil and irrational behavior. Despite being discredited within academic literature this discourse persists both in formal theory and everyday use. Drawing on the case of diabetes care, I argue that the discourse of “normal adolescence” derives its power from its value as a vocabulary of motive through which to navigate the contradictions inherent in the social order at this stage of the life‐course. While helping us to comprehend sociologically the ecological niche in which “normal adolescence” is sustained, this analysis raises questions about the persistence of this discourse for social action.     

Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size

This article proposes new methodologies for evaluating economic models’ out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. The study shows that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the power to detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across different window sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of the methodologies for evaluating exchange rate models’ forecasting ability.     

Keeping a Home: Changing Mortgage Markets and Regional Economic Distress

Abstract

In the relatively affluent post World War II period, homeownership in the United States has risen steadily to include an increasing segment of the working class. Although the extension of homeownership has helped to attenuate some of the inequalities of class and to integrate the more affluent segments of the working class into the social and political mainstream, economic and political events are threatening this historic trend. Dependent upon long term financing, homeownership has two components: keeping as well as buying a home. High and persistent rates of unemployment in old industrial areas have meant the loss of stable incomes for skilled workers, and with it, rising rates of home mortgage delinquency and foreclosure. To examine the threat to continued homeownership, this paper locates homeownership in its structural context, at the intersection of major changes in financial institutions (deregulation) as well as local economic and industrial change.

Our research suggests that regional economic difficulties are being exaccerbated by national deregulatory trends. We found that deregulation has facilitated a general movement from a local to a nonlocal mortgage market. This includes the growth and privatization of the secondary mortgage market and the repositioning of lenders in the local market. We found that delinquent homeowners with locally held and serviced mortgages were better able to negotiate forebearance with their lenders for reasons ranging from the ability to exert public pressure to the economic self-interest of local lenders. Except for FHA mortgages, delinquent homeowners with nonlocal mortgages were penalized. For blue collar workers, the loss of a home more than the loss of a job removes an important class buffer thus reversing a post World War II trend.