Parental marital disruption and intergenerational transfers: An analysis of lone elderly parents and their children

Although one of the most marked demographic trends observed over the twentieth century is the increased rate of divorce, relatively little research has explored the effects of these changing marital patterns in the context of an aging society. Using a sample of lone elderly parents and their adult children, we analyze the direct and indirect effects of marital disruption on four important dimensions of intergenerational transfers: coresidence, financial assistance, adult children's provision of informal care, and parental purchase of paid care. Our findings suggest that divorce has deleterious effects on intergenerational transfers, particularly for elderly fathers. Remarriage further reduces exchange. Our results reveal that parents engage in lower levels of transfers with stepchildren relative to biological children. Moreover, intergenerational transfers are sensitive to characteristics of biological children but not to those of stepchildren. Taken together, these results suggest that exchange at the end of the life course continues to be adversely affected by marital disruption.     

Marriage and childbirth as factors in dropping out from school: an analysis of DHS data from sub-Saharan Africa

Leaving school prematurely is often claimed to be among the most negative consequences of early marriage and pregnancy for girls in less developed countries. However, an analysis of the relative frequency with which these events actually occur or are named as reasons for leaving school reveals that, at least in the case of francophone Africa, they explain no more than 20 per cent of dropouts. To the extent that demographic events trump school or family factors as determinants of school-leaving, our data indicate that it is union formation--defined by the DHS as first marriage or cohabitation--rather than childbirth that is more likely to have this effect. 'Schoolgirl pregnancy' typically accounts for only between 5 and 10 per cent of girls' departures from school. Furthermore, the risks of leaving school because of pregnancy or marriage have declined over time with the decline in rates of early marriage and childbearing.     

2008 North American Serials Interest Group Conference: Taking the Sting out of Serials!

Abstract

The twelfth annual MOBIUS Conference was held June 7–9, 2011, at the Holiday Inn Executive Center in Columbia, Missouri. The MOBIUS consortium of Missouri is currently composed of fifty-nine academic libraries, two public libraries, and the Missouri State Library. The conference offered various opportunities, including a keynote address by Meredith Farkas and a networking dessert session on the first night. The second day featured six concurrent sessions, each having six different presentations, along with delicious food, generous door prizes, and the chance to meet with vendors. The third day consisted of four different four-hour post-conference training sessions. Presentations are available for download from the conference Web site.¹     

Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size

This article proposes new methodologies for evaluating economic models’ out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. The study shows that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the power to detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across different window sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of the methodologies for evaluating exchange rate models’ forecasting ability.     

In-Sample Inference and Forecasting in Misspecified Factor Models

This article considers in-sample prediction and out-of-sample forecasting in regressions with many exogenous predictors. We consider four dimension-reduction devices: principal components, ridge, Landweber Fridman, and partial least squares. We derive rates of convergence for two representative models: an ill-posed model and an approximate factor model. The theory is developed for a large cross-section and a large time-series. As all these methods depend on a tuning parameter to be selected, we also propose data-driven selection methods based on cross-validation and establish their optimality. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application to forecasting inflation and output growth in the U.S. show that data-reduction methods outperform conventional methods in several relevant settings, and might effectively guard against instabilities in predictors’ forecasting ability.     

Modelling Wage Growth Dynamics in Italy, 1960-90

ABSTRACT: In this work we analyse the common dynamic properties of wage inflation, price inflation, unemployment and labour productivity using Italian annual data (1960-90, source: Prometeia). Applying multivariate cointegration technique we test for the presence of a wage equation and a price mark-up equation. The preferred identification suggests that it is possible to build up an error correction representation for the wage inflation, in which the rate of acceleration in wages depends on the contemporaneous rate of acceleration in prices and on the adjustment to long-run disequilibrium as represented by a Phillips type relation. This representation is rejected for the price inflation which turns out to be weakly exogenous within the system. Furthermore, there is evidence that wage inflation does not Granger-cause price inflation. The overall conclusion is that wage inflation does not contribute in explaining the price inflation process and the traditional mark-up view of inflation is not supported by data. The policy implication is that monetary policy need not respond to wage data because they do not contain additional information about the future path of inflation.