In-Sample Inference and Forecasting in Misspecified Factor Models

This article considers in-sample prediction and out-of-sample forecasting in regressions with many exogenous predictors. We consider four dimension-reduction devices: principal components, ridge, Landweber Fridman, and partial least squares. We derive rates of convergence for two representative models: an ill-posed model and an approximate factor model. The theory is developed for a large cross-section and a large time-series. As all these methods depend on a tuning parameter to be selected, we also propose data-driven selection methods based on cross-validation and establish their optimality. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application to forecasting inflation and output growth in the U.S. show that data-reduction methods outperform conventional methods in several relevant settings, and might effectively guard against instabilities in predictors’ forecasting ability.     

Modelling Wage Growth Dynamics in Italy, 1960-90

ABSTRACT: In this work we analyse the common dynamic properties of wage inflation, price inflation, unemployment and labour productivity using Italian annual data (1960-90, source: Prometeia). Applying multivariate cointegration technique we test for the presence of a wage equation and a price mark-up equation. The preferred identification suggests that it is possible to build up an error correction representation for the wage inflation, in which the rate of acceleration in wages depends on the contemporaneous rate of acceleration in prices and on the adjustment to long-run disequilibrium as represented by a Phillips type relation. This representation is rejected for the price inflation which turns out to be weakly exogenous within the system. Furthermore, there is evidence that wage inflation does not Granger-cause price inflation. The overall conclusion is that wage inflation does not contribute in explaining the price inflation process and the traditional mark-up view of inflation is not supported by data. The policy implication is that monetary policy need not respond to wage data because they do not contain additional information about the future path of inflation.     

Migration and fuel use in rural Zambia

Population and Environment - What is the effect of migration on fuel use in rural Zambia? Opportunities to increase income can be scarce in this setting; in response, households may pursue a...     

Determinants of the heavily right-tailed residential housing price in Tianjin

The housing price in Tianjin, one of the typical monocentric cities of China, exhibits a heavily right-tailed distribution even after the logarithm transformation of the price, which might lead to a biased estimation of the parameters under normal distribution assumption. Therefore, the extended Cox proportional hazards regression model and the generalized concept of relative risk are used to identify factors associated with the housing price. The analysis shows that the implementation dates of the macro regulation policies were related to the price changing trends. Qualities of public elementary and secondary schools were significantly associated with the housing price, and the associations between the structure and neighborhood characteristics and the housing price were influenced by the distance of the residential property to downtown Tianjin.KEYWORDS: Cox proportional hazards model, cumulative opportunity method, housing price, restricted cubic splines, relative risk     

The Mediating Effect of Resilience Between Social Support for Exercise and Resident Satisfaction in Assisted Living

This study examined whether residents' level of resilience mediated the relationship between social support for exercise from staff and resident satisfaction in assisted living. This was a secondary data analysis using baseline data from a function-focused care intervention study including 171 residents from four assisted living facilities. Using structural equation modeling, we found that mood and social support for exercise from staff were the only variables associated with resilience. Mood, gender, cognition, and social support for exercise from staff directly influenced resident satisfaction and explained 31% of the variance in the model. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.     

Albinism,spiritual and cultural practices,and implications for health,healthcare, and human rights: a scoping review

Persons with albinism – a disability found worldwide – are particularly at risk for human rights violations in Africa. The purpose of this scoping review was to establish the current state of knowledge on albinism, spiritual and cultural practices, and implications for health and health services. Electronic searches of nine databases were conducted. After screening, 40 articles were reviewed. Four themes emerged: health implications of albinism; health-related cultural and spiritual meanings attached to albinism; health-related experiences of persons with albinism; and human rights and albinism. The findings reveal that African ontologies, including witchcraft beliefs and practices, are implicated by their construction of the person with albinism as an ontologically different entity, although few studies explicated this relationship. How broader social structures influence persons with albinism disproportionately, resulting in health and social inequities, is another under-researched area. This scoping review lays the groundwork for intersectoral, interdisciplinary research.     

Open Dialogue: Frequently Asked Questions

Open Dialogue is an approach to working with people and their families experiencing psychosocial distress. Interest in Open Dialogue in Australia has been growing recently, raising questions about its adaption and implementation to local contexts. This article is an attempt to answer some of the frequently asked questions we have encountered in training and discussions about Open Dialogue. We attempt to provide responses to questions of how Open Dialogue is different to what is done already, how it fits with current approaches, how you know if you are doing it, whether it is passive or just about doing reflections, issues about including the social network, and concerns about the evidence base. This article aims to present a variety of viewpoints in relation to these questions and to hopefully further discussions on how Open Dialogue can be implemented and adapted to Australian health care and social care contexts.