Decision problems under uncertainty based on entropy functionals

This essay intends to define the role of entropy, in particular, the role of the maximum entropy criterion with respect to decision analysis and information economics. By considering the average opportunity loss interpretation, the basic hypothesis for Shannon's derivation can be derived from properties of decision problems. Using the representation Bayes Boundary it is possible to show that selecting a single probability from a set by the Maximum Entropy Criterion corresponds to a minimax criterion for decision-making. Since problems of randomly accessing and storing information as well as communicating information can often be stated in terms of coding problems, this result might be used to develop strategies for minimizing retrieval time or communication costs.     

Sources of growth and cyclical stability for Nevada counties: Transfer payments and property income

The growing relative number, the improved economic well-being, and the migration of elderly retirees is not only reshaping the social and economic structure of many areas, it is also modifying both long-term and short-run patterns of economic growth. Transfer payments and property incomes, two of the most important source of elderly income, have been among the leading sources of national income growth over the past several decades. Unlike most labor-related industry sources of earnings, the level of transfer payments and property incomes received by the residents of the region is not directly dependent upon local economic activity. Consequently, as transfer payments and property incomes of elderly retirees become increasingly important sources of income and purchasing power within a region, they also can alter regional short-run cyclical patterns of income growth. This article examines the pattern of growth of transfer payments and property incomes in the context of national economic cycles, and explores the implication of those findings on metropolitan and nonmetropolitan Nevada economies.     

A note on Marshallian and von Neumann-Morgenstern utility

The curvature of a decision maker's utility function is often used to measure his risk preference. In order to comprehensively describe an individual's decision making behaviour, however, it would also seem desirable to measure the gain in utility from an increase in wealth or income before accounting for risk. If a small increase in wealth leads to a large utility gain, then it could be said that the individual's aspiration to achieve the wealth increase would be high. This aspiration, however, may be more than offset by the risk involved in obtaining this extra wealth and the individual's attitude towards risk. In the following paper it is shown how the marginal utility of Marshall can be used in a measure of aspiration with this measure then combined with the usual measure of risk preference to explain the shape of any individuals utility curve. Using these measures, a general utility curve for all income or wealth classes is postulated.The author would like to thank Professor I. Horowitz for providing the inspiration that led to his note. Any errors are the responsibility of the author.     

Constructs and empirical basis in theories of economic behavior

Theories of economic behavior often use as-if-languages: for example, analytical sentences or definitions are used as if they were synthetic and factual-normative theoretical constructs are used as if they were empirical concepts. Such as-if-languages impede the acquisition of knowledge and are apt to encourage the wrong assessment of actual research strategies. The author's criticism is first leveled at revealed-preference theory. In this theory observed behavior is often understood in an empirical sense although it is a pure theoretical construct. Another example can be found in von Mises' representations on marketing behavior: here theoretical valuations are used to achieve a spurious streamlining of reality. Result: Scientists should not ogle with reality if they have nothing to say about it.     

Milford Redefined: A Model of Initial and Advanced Generalist Social Work

Abstract

Social work has long sought a conceptual framework to describe its most basic approach to service delivery: generalist social work practice. A milestone in that process was the series of Milford conferences in the 1920s during which the elements of “generic casework” were first identified. This article presents a model that advances and clarifies the concepts of generalist social work as viewed at the beginning of the 1990s. Generalist social work at both the initial and advanced levels involves a way of viewing practice. It is a perspective that focuses on the interface between systems, on a client-centered and problem-focused philosophy, and on an openness to multiple theories and approaches for improving people's well-being. Practice at the initial level requires a set of competencies necessary to provide services consistent with the understanding derived from the perspective. Advanced generalist social work represents increased complexity in the learning process and greater breadth and depth of exploration in a generalist perspective rather than a uniquely different perspective from the generalist approach.     

Manpower Planning in Social Welfare

The discipline of history has been much neglected in curriculum planning in schools of social work at every level—undergraduate, MSW and Ph.D. The study of history may recover lost experiments in social service; it may provide the student with methods relevant to social analysis; it may provide models for apprentice social workers; and it may provide insights into social process.     

Recent European fertility patterns: Fitting curves to ‘distorted’ distributions

Recent patterns of fertility in Europe show marked differences between countries. Recent United Kingdom and Irish fertility curves show ‘distortions’ in terms of a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility, distinct from the smoother curves of other European countries. These patterns may not be adequately described by mathematical functions used by previous studies to model fertility curves. A mixture model with two component distributions may be more appropriate. The suitability of the simple and mixture Hadwiger functions is examined in relation to the fertility curves of a number of European countries. While the simple Hadwiger model fits recent period age-specific fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility require a mixture Hadwiger model. Some of the parameters of the Hadwiger models appear to be related to familiar demographic indices. The simple and mixture Hadwiger models appear useful in describing and comparing fertility patterns across European countries.