Re-instating the vague

From medicine and military warfare to the practices of modern management, we have come to pursue the ideal of precision in order to generate the knowledge necessary to organise our social, cultural and economic lives. Underpinning this valorisation of the ideal of precision is a repulsion for its opposite –vagueness– which is habitually treated as a synonym for chaos, uncertainty and uselessness. Yet vagueness, understood here as a condition of radical uncertainty or open possibility, is inescapably imbricated in the triumphs of precision. This paper challenges this neglect by arguing that, once stripped of its pejorative connotations, vagueness can be understood as the silent but often salient partner in a marriage of opposites. Tracing the conceptual pairing of these contrasting terms, the paper goes on to suggest that instead of prising them apart we need to recognise their mutual reciprocity. By holding vagueness and precision in dynamic tension, it is suggested, we can develop a critical exploration of contemporary thinking in public policy formulation with its predilection for ‘joined‐up thinking’ and a general ‘blurring of boundaries’.     

Approximating probability density functions in hybrid Bayesian networks with mixtures of truncated exponentials

Mixtures of truncated exponentials (MTE) potentials are an alternative to discretization and Monte Carlo methods for solving hybrid Bayesian networks. Any probability density function (PDF) can be approximated by an MTE potential, which can always be marginalized in closed form. This allows propagation to be done exactly using the Shenoy-Shafer architecture for computing marginals, with no restrictions on the construction of a join tree. This paper presents MTE potentials that approximate standard PDF’s and applications of these potentials for solving inference problems in hybrid Bayesian networks. These approximations will extend the types of inference problems that can be modelled with Bayesian networks, as demonstrated using three examples.     

Fathers-The Secondary Partners: Professional Perceptions and Fathers' Reflections

SUMMARY. The following is an account of a research project exploring the recollections of seven fathers at the time of the birth of their children with Down's Syndrome. It discusses the disclosure of diagnosis and subsequent contacts the fathers made both professionally and socially during the period following both in the hospital and at home. This is combined with the personal recollections of one father, not part of the original study, whose child was born with special needs. The implications for both professional practice and fathers are highlighted. Whilst there is an acknowledgement that the project was small scale, the conclusions will raise challenging issues for further discussion both among professionals and individual members of families.     

The spatial structure of epidemic emergence: geographical aspects of poliomyelitis in north-eastern USA, July-October 1916

Summary.  The great epidemic of poliomyelitis which swept New York City and surrounding territory in the summer of 1916 eclipsed all previous global experience of the disease. We draw on epidemiological information that is included in the seminal US Public Health Bulletin 91, 'Epidemiologic studies of poliomyelitis in New York City and the northeastern United States during the year 1916' (Washington DC, 1918), to re-examine the spatial structure of the epidemic. For the main phase of transmission of the epidemic, July–October 1916, it is shown that the maximum concentration of activity of poliomyelitis occurred within a 128-km radius of New York City. Although the integrity of the poliomyelitis cluster was maintained up to approximately 500 km from the metropolitan focus, the level and rate of propagation of disease declined with distance from the origin of the epidemic. Finally, it is shown that the geographical transmission of the epidemic in north-eastern USA probably followed a process of mixed contagious–hierarchical diffusion.     

Sexual orientation and body weight: Evidence from multiple surveys

Previous research on sexual orientation and body weight has relied primarily on small convenience samples. I use data from two large representative public health surveys to examine the relationships between sexual orientation and body weight. First, I present new estimates of obesity rates by sexual orientation from the 2001 California Health Interview Survey (which contains information on self-reported sexual orientation) and the 1996–2002 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (which contains information on intra-household same-sex unmarried partnerships). I find evidence in both surveys that gay men are much less likely to be obese relative to their heterosexual counterparts, while lesbians are much more likely to be obese. These differences cannot be easily explained by other demographic characteristics, and there is no evidence that the differences are related to differences in physical activity or muscle strengthening activities. Moreover, I find that obese gay men are less likely to be in a partnership relative to their obese heterosexual male counterparts, even after controlling for the overall lower likelihood of partnership among gay men. This suggests that minority sexual orientation may exacerbate the barriers associated with obesity. Christopher Carpenter ia an assistant professor of Economics/Public Policy at the Graduate School of Management at the University of California at Irvine. His research focuses on health policy evaluation and the relationships between sexual orientation and economic well-being. He has recently published a methodological paper on the measurement of sexual orientation (Contemporary Economic Policy, 2004).     

Immigrants' Language Skills: The Australian Experience in a Longitudinal Survey

This article is concerned with the determinants of English language proficiency (speaking, reading and writing) among immigrants. It presents a model of immigrant destination language proficiency based on economic incentives, exposure to the destination language, and efficiency in second language acquisition. A unique data set, the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia, is used to test the model. This survey had three waves, at about six months, eighteen months and three‐and‐a‐half years after immigration. The analyses are performed by wave, type of language skill and gender using probit analysis. Bivariate probit analysis is used across waves. The hypotheses are supported by the data. The bivariate probit analysis indicates a positive correlation in the unexplained component that declines with time between waves, suggesting a “regression to the mean” in the unobserved components of English language proficiency.     

Monsters in cyberspace cyberphobia and cultural panic in the information age

This paper explores popular attitudes toward the Internet (and computer-mediated communication more generally) by mapping some of the more threatening, transgressive and 'monstrous' images associated with cyberspace. An account of risk consciousness is developed in three parts: (1) comparisons with earlier information technologies reveals similarities and differences with regard to public attitudes toward cyberspace and its risks; (2) the development of a model of contemporary teratological space derived from images of boundary-dissolving threats, intrusive alterities and existential ambivalences created by the erosion of binary distinctions and hierarchies; and (3) possible historical and sociological explanations of cyberpanic drawing on recent theorizations of globalization (capitalism/information society theory, risk society theory, reflexive modernization theory, and alterity theory).     

COLLECTIVE MEMORY AND HISTORY:

Abraham Lincoln's changing relation to the African American community of memory is a means of addressing unresolved problems in the work of Maurice Halbwachs. Many sociologists, beginning with Halbwachs, have recognized that commemorative symbolism creates new images of the past, but the process by which this occurs has never been closely studied. I draw on a variety of sources, including Lincoln Day observances, press commentary, oratory, cartoons, and prints, in my effort to understand how commemorative symbolism works. During the past century, no new information about Lincoln's racial attitudes has appeared; yet commemorative pairing and coupling mechanisms and their resulting commemorative networks have transformed him from a conservative symbol of the status quo during the Jim Crow era into the personification of racial justice and equality during the New Deal and the civil rights movement. Since the symbolic devices employed to depict Lincoln are shaped by the very historical record they transcend, however, Halbwachs's distinction between fact-based history and symbol-based commemoration must be modified.