Bivariate deconvolution with SIMEX: an application to mapping Alaska earthquake density

Constructing spatial density maps of seismic events, such as earthquake hypocentres, is complicated by the fact that events are not located precisely. In this paper, we present a method for estimating density maps from event locations that are measured with error. The estimator is based on the simulation–extrapolation method of estimation and is appropriate for location errors that are either homoscedastic or heteroscedastic. A simulation study shows that the estimator outperforms the standard estimator of density that ignores location errors in the data, even when location errors are spatially dependent. We apply our method to construct an estimated density map of earthquake hypocenters using data from the Alaska earthquake catalogue.     

畜牧业改变气候——澳洲打响同牲畜的减排战斗

有许多众所周知的方法可以减少二氧化碳的排放,例如:减少石化燃料的使用、使用太阳能或风力等再生能源、开省油的车子或替代能源车、使用省电的电子产品,并切实做到减量、重复使用和回收等。然而,当前有关全球变暖的辩论几乎都集中在能源及交通运输方面。     

Causes of Disaster: Sloppy Management

The loss of control associated with accidents and disasters can have severe negative consequences for the organizations involved. Some disasters are caused by inadequacies of management, or by unprofessional behaviour but others arise when disaster preconditions are generated as a result of the normal functioning of larger managerial and technical systems. During the incubation period preceding a major incident, therefore, two levels of correction need to be considered to avoid disasters. ‘Sloppy management’ of various kinds can be tackled by establishing, strengthening and asserting appropriate forms of management control. The system properties which constitute disaster preconditions are less immediately accessible to management control. At both levels managers in pursuit of high reliability should expect to have to make a range of trade-offs.     

The Internet's impact on policy evaluation: information compression and credibility

As with all media, the Internet structures and frames information, rewarding some information search and decision behaviors while punishing others and, thereby, strongly influences evaluation research results and possibilities. Now that the Internet is for many evaluators the information medium of choice, the impacts of the medium on evaluation deserve careful attention. The objective of this article is to lay groundwork for a theory of the impact of the Internet on evaluation and policy analysis. Questions addressed include the following: (a) What is the impact of the Internet on the evaluator's professional role, work norms, and work habits? (b) Does the use of the Internet affect who is an evaluator or the meaning of professional evaluation? and (c) How does evaluation via Internet affect the technical quality and credibility of evaluation? A key thesis is that the Internet compresses information in the sense that it is not always easy to distinguish among information resources and, especially, the authority of the information provider and the nature of the knowledge warrant. On one hand, the Internet's information compression seems to hold potential for the democratization of evaluation. On the other hand, the diminished ability to make quality distinctions about evaluation-relevant information may undercut the legitimacy of evaluation.     

Eating dysfunctions in college women: the roles of depression and attachment to fathers

The authors examined the roles of depression and attachment to fathers in college women's eating dysfunctions. Three-hundred six undergraduate women completed (1) a diagnostic measure of eating dysfunctions that categorized them as asymptomatic, symptomatic but not eating disordered, or eating disordered; (2) 3 dimensional measures of attachment to fathers; and (3) a dimensional measure of depression. Depression was directly related to severity of participants' eating dysfunction; the eating-disordered group had scores consistent with clinical depression. After controlling for depression, 3 facets of attachment to fathers significantly differentiated the 3 groups.     

Jacob Mincer,Experience and the Distribution of Earnings

This paper reviews Jacob Mincer's contributions to the analyses of earnings and the distribution of earnings through his pioneering focus on labor market experience or on-the-job training. It begins with a brief discussion of the theoretical literature on the distribution of earnings in the pre-Mincer period, and then discusses his analysis of human capital and earnings developed in his 1957 doctoral dissertation and 1958 Journal of Political Economy (JPE) article. Further analyses of on-the-job training, and in particular estimates of the rate of return from on-the-job training, are presented in his 1962 JPE paper. The synergy between Mincer and Becker during the 1960s is discussed, as is the development of the schooling-earnings function by Gary S. Becker and Barry R. Chiswick (1966). Jacob Mincer extended this relationship by incorporating experience to form the human capital earnings function in his Schooling, Experience and Earnings (1974). Subsequent modifications, extensions, tests of robustness and the wide applicability of the human capital earnings function are presented.     

Adjusted estimates for time-to-event endpoints

In the analysis of retrospective data or when interpreting results from a single-arm phase II clinical trial relative to historical data, it is often of interest to show plots summarizing time-to-event outcomes comparing treatment groups. If the groups being compared are imbalanced with respect to factors known to influence outcome, these plots can be misleading and seemingly incompatible with results obtained from a regression model that accounts for these imbalances. We consider ways in which covariate information can be used to obtain adjusted curves for time-to-event outcomes. We first review a common model-based method and then suggest another model-based approach that is not as reliant on model assumptions. Finally, an approach that is partially model free is suggested. Each method is applied to an example from hematopoietic cell transplantation.