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51.
Wändi Bruine de Bruin Ümit Güvenç Baruch Fischhoff Christopher M. Armstrong Denise Caruso 《Risk analysis》2009,29(8):1105-1115
Xenotransplantation entails using organs from genetically modified animals as a way to solve the shortage of human organs for transplantation. As with other novel technologies, if xenotransplantation is to be judged fairly, proponents must explain its complex, uncertain, and unfamiliar risks and benefits. Xenotransplantation's risks include the possibility of a recombinant virus infecting human transplant recipients, potentially causing an epidemic of an unfamiliar disease. Using materials vetted by scientific experts, we communicated the variables and relationships determining this risk in three formally equivalent formats: (a) a graphic model, (b) scenarios structured by the graphic model, and (c) both the model and the scenarios. Participants were randomly assigned to receiving one set of materials. They rated them as equally clear and studied them equally long, suggesting similar ease of cognitive processing. Compared to participants receiving the scenarios, those who received the graphic model better identified causes and effects of the risk, and saw less risk of xenotransplantation. Participants who received both the model and the scenarios generally showed intermediate responses. The study demonstrates a general procedure for developing and evaluating formally equivalent graphic and scenario communications regarding highly uncertain risks. In this application to xenotransplantation, presenting a graphic representation improved people's understanding of the risk. 相似文献
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Charles Auerbach Nancy L. Beckerman Irene Blanco 《Journal of social service research》2013,39(5):606-615
ABSTRACT The purpose of this cross-sectional study (n = 92) was the further identification of the unique psychosocial challenges facing those living with lupus. Specifically, the study aim was to clarify which particular lupus symptomatology may result in which emotional states. The authors review relevant literature, discuss findings, and provide evidence-based recommendations for social workers providing services to patients with lupus. Key findings include the following: Frequent flare-ups resulted in the highest need for assistance with feelings of depression, anxiety, and socioeconomic challenges. Hair loss had the most significant impact on depression, anxiety, and socioeconomic coping. Being hospitalized in the past year for lupus also significantly impacted depression, anxiety, and socioeconomic coping. And, finally, the participants reported that having friends to rely on reduced their reported depression and anxiety. Fatigue from lupus was seen as the highest correlate of anxiety. 相似文献
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Baruch Fischhoff 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》1993,7(1):53-69
Creating or interpreting people's choices requires attention to a great many details. A framework initially presented in this journal (Fischhoff and Furby, 1988) specifies those details. It is applied here to several insurance-related choices appearing in Johnson et al. (1993) and elsewhere. These specific applications suggest alternative explanations for the results of these studies. The approach as a whole provides an alternative perspective regarding reliance on experiments and markets to study people's preferences. 相似文献
55.
What Number is “Fifty‐Fifty”?: Redistributing Excessive 50% Responses in Elicited Probabilities 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Wändi Bruine de Bruin Paul S. Fischbeck Neil A. Stiber Baruch Fischhoff 《Risk analysis》2002,22(4):713-723
Studies using open-ended response modes to elicit probabilistic beliefs have sometimes found an elevated frequency (or blip) at 50 in their response distributions. Our previous research suggests that this is caused by intrusion of the phrase "fifty-fifty," which represents epistemic uncertainty, rather than a true numeric probability of 50%. Such inappropriate responses pose a problem for decision analysts and others relying on probabilistic judgments. Using an explicit numeric probability scale (ranging from 0-100%) reduces thinking about uncertain events in verbal terms like "fifty-fifty," and, with it, exaggerated use of the 50 response. Here, we present two procedures for adjusting response distributions for data already collected with open-ended response modes and hence vulnerable to an exaggerated presence of 50%. Each procedure infers the prevalence of 50s had a numeric probability scale been used, then redistributes the excess. The two procedures are validated on some of our own existing data and then applied to judgments elicited from experts in groundwater pollution and bioremediation. 相似文献
56.
Baruch Fischhoff 《Risk analysis》1995,15(2):137-145
Over the past twenty years, risk communication researchers and practitioners have learned some lessons, often at considerable personal price. For the most part, the mistakes that they have made have been natural, even intelligent ones. As a result, the same pitfalls may tempt newcomers to the field. This essay offers a personal (even confessional) history of the field over this period. It identifies a series of developmental stages. Progress through the stages involves consolidating the skills needed to execute it and learning its limitations. Knowing about their existence might speed the learning process and alert one to how much there still is to learn. 相似文献
57.
The single-period inventory problem: Extension to random yield from the perspective of the supply chain 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Baruch Keren 《Omega》2009
A special form of the single-period inventory problem (newsvendor problem) with a known demand and stochastic supply (yield) is studied. A general analytic solution for two types of yield risks, additive and multiplicative, is described. Numerical examples demonstrate the solutions for special cases of uniform distribution yield risks. An analysis of a two-tier supply chain of customer and producer reveals that the customer may find it optimal to order more than is needed, since a larger order increases the producer's optimal production quantity. 相似文献
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Henry H. Willis Michael L. DeKay Baruch Fischhoff M. Granger Morgan 《Risk analysis》2005,25(2):405-428
Laypeople's perceptions of health and safety risks have been widely studied, but only a few studies have addressed perceptions of ecological hazards. We assembled a list of 39 attributes of ecological hazards from the literatures on comparative risk assessment, ecological health, environmental conservation and management, environmental psychology, and risk perception. In Study 1, 125 laypeople evaluated 83 hazards on subsets of this attribute set. Factor analysis of attribute ratings (averaged over participants) revealed six oblique factors: ecological impacts, human impacts, human benefits, aesthetic impacts, scientific understanding, and controllability. These factors predicted mean judgments of overall riskiness, ecological riskiness, acceptability, and regulatory strictness. In Study 2, 30 laypeople each evaluated 34 hazards on 17 attributes and 3 dependent variables. Aggregate-level factor analysis of these data replicated the appropriate portion of the factor solution and yielded similar regression results. Parallel analyses at the individual-participant level yielded factors that explained less variance in judgments of overall riskiness, ecological riskiness, and acceptability. However, the decrease in explanatory power was much less than is often reported for disaggregate-level analyses of psychometric data. This discrepancy illustrates the importance of distinguishing between the level of analysis (aggregate versus disaggregate) and the focus of analysis (distinctions among hazards versus distinctions among participants). In a hybrid analysis, aggregate-level factor scores predicted individual participants' riskiness judgments reasonably well. Psychometric studies such as these provide a sound empirical basis for selecting attributes of ecological hazards for use in comparative risk assessment. 相似文献