Analysing partial ranks by using smoothed paired comparison methods: an investigation of value orientation in Europe

Summary. This paper introduces the paired comparison model as a suitable approach for the analysis of partially ranked data. For example, the Inglehart index, collected in international social surveys to examine shifts in post-materialistic values, generates such data on a set of attitude items. However, current analysis methods have failed to account for the complex shifts in individual item values, or to incorporate subject covariates. The paired comparison model is thus developed to allow for covariate subject effects at the individual level, and a reparameterization allows the inclusion of smooth non-linear effects of continuous covariates. The Inglehart index collected in the 1993 International Social Science Programme survey is analysed, and complex non-linear changes of item values with age, level of education and religion are identified. The model proposed provides a powerful tool for social scientists.     

Protecting children in Scotland: examining the impact of the Children (Scotland) Act 1995

This paper discusses findings from a small‐scale study of the impact on child protection practice following implementation of the Children (Scotland) Act 1995. The Act introduced three new measures to allow the state to intervene in families to protect a child where there is a risk of significant harm. These include the child protection order, the child assessment order and the exclusion order. The child protection order provides for the removal of a child to (or his or her retention in) a place of safety. In the first two years of the operation of the 1995 Act fewer applications were made for this order compared with similar provisions under the previous legislation. This reduction in applications appears to be related to unfamiliarity with new legislation; greater scrutiny resulting from the more formal application to the sheriff court; and the introduction of a new legal criterion for intervention, the presence or likelihood of ‘significant harm’. The introduction of the ‘no order’ principle into Scottish child care law is also likely to be a factor.     

How useful are recoveries of North American passerines for survival analyses?

Of 17 000 000 passerines ringed in North America from 1955 to 1984, only 0.4% were ever recovered. Only 62 species had more than 100 recoveries, of which only 26 had more than 500 recoveries. Preliminary analyses using stochastic recovery models for four of the species with more than 500 recoveries suggest estimates of mean annual adult survival can be fairly precise (CV < 4%), but estimates of immature survival are much less precise (CV > 8%). Comparable estimates may be possible for other species with more than 100 recoveries, depending on the temporal and geographic distribution of ringings and recoveries. Further analyses are required to determine whether these estimates may be biased by heterogeneity in survival or recovery rates.     

Leverage and evaluation effectiveness

Weaknesses in evaluations often can be traced to structural limitations in the positions of evaluation researchers. Conventional human relations techniques often are an insufficient basis for securing strong support for evaluation research. Strategies for increasing evaluation research leverage are reviewed. Alignment of evaluation research with regulatory bodies with authority to suspend public program expenditures is advocated. Several likely obstacles in the development of the regulatory evaluation model are anticipated and addressed.