How Visual is Visual Prediction?

Infants are readily able to use their recent experience to shape their future behavior. Recent work has confirmed that infants generate neural predictions based on their recent experience (Emberson, Richards, & Aslin, 2015) and that neural predictions trigger visual system activity similar to that elicited by visual stimulation. This study uses behavioral methods to ask, how visual is visual prediction? In Experiment 1, we confirmed that when additional trials provide additional visual experience with the experimental shape, infants exhibit a robust novelty preference. In Experiment 2, we removed the visual stimulus from some trials and presented the predictive auditory cue alone, allowing the effects of neural prediction to be assessed. We found no evidence of looking preferences at test, suggesting that visual prediction does not contribute to the computation of visual familiarity. In Experiment 3, we provided infants with a degraded visual stimulus to test whether visual prediction could bias visual perception under ambiguous conditions. Again, we found no evidence of looking preferences at test, suggesting that visual prediction is not biasing perception of an uncertain stimulus. Overall, our results suggest that visual prediction is not visual, in the strictest sense, despite the presence of visual system activation.     

A Mixed-Methods Inquiry Into Trans* Environmental Microaggressions on College Campuses: Experiences and Outcomes

ABSTRACT

The experiences, including with environmental microaggressions, and well-being of trans* collegians remain an under-researched topic. In this mixed-methods study of a survey sample of 152 trans* collegians, multivariable regression findings suggest that the frequency of experiencing select trans* environmental microaggressions (e.g., not having access to comfortable bathrooms as a trans* person) are associated with increased risk for poorer academic outcomes (e.g., developmental challenges) but are not associated with mental health outcomes. Furthermore, interviews with 18 trans* collegians suggest that students face several systemic microaggressions, including difficulties advancing trans* inclusion. Various reactions, including paths of resistance, were identified. Implications are discussed.     

Differences in Experiences of Discrimination in Accessing Social Services Among Transgender/Gender Nonconforming Individuals by (Dis)Ability

Transgender and gender nonconforming (GNC) individuals frequently experience discrimination and potentially a lack of respect from service providers, suggesting they have decreased access to professionals with cultural competency. Similarly, people with disabilities experience higher levels of discrimination in social services than their nondisabled counterparts. From an intersectional perspective, this study examines rates of discrimination in accessing social services faced by transgender and GNC people, comparing across ability. Data indicate that although transgender and GNC individuals of all abilities experience gender-based discrimination when accessing social services, those with disabilities experience higher levels of antitransgender discrimination in mental health centers, rape crisis centers, and domestic violence shelters.     

The expected and unexpected media effects on youth’s (mis)perceptions of peer norms: Chinese college students’ overestimation of peer smoking prevalence

Youth’s perceptions of peer norms have profound effects on their attitudes and behaviors. Unfortunately, their perceptions of peers tend to be biased. To investigate the role of media in the formation of misperceived peer norms, the current study tested and compared two media-effect mechanisms: the direct exemplar mechanism and the indirect influence of presumed influence (IPI) mechanism. The two mechanisms were tested in a sample (n = 1746) that is representative of college students in one large university in China, based on which the actual and perceived campus smoking rates were examined. The individual-level perceived peer smoking prevalence was then analyzed in comparison with the campus-level actual smoking prevalence. The results revealed serious overestimations of peer smoking prevalence. As predicted, pro-smoking media content significantly heightened smoking prevalence estimates through both exemplar and IPI mechanisms. In contrast, anti-smoking messages did not elicit any intended effect through the IPI mechanism, but showed a boomerang effect through the exemplar mechanism. These findings suggest that both pro- and anti-smoking media content may be responsible for inflated perceptions of peer smoking among youth.     

Comparison of dichotomized and distributional approaches in rare event clinical trial design: a fixed Bayesian design

This research was motivated by our goal to design an efficient clinical trial to compare two doses of docosahexaenoic acid supplementation for reducing the rate of earliest preterm births (ePTB) and/or preterm births (PTB). Dichotomizing continuous gestational age (GA) data using a classic binomial distribution will result in a loss of information and reduced power. A distributional approach is an improved strategy to retain statistical power from the continuous distribution. However, appropriate distributions that fit the data properly, particularly in the tails, must be chosen, especially when the data are skewed. A recent study proposed a skew-normal method. We propose a three-component normal mixture model and introduce separate treatment effects at different components of GA. We evaluate operating characteristics of mixture model, beta-binomial model, and skew-normal model through simulation. We also apply these three methods to data from two completed clinical trials from the USA and Australia. Finite mixture models are shown to have favorable properties in PTB analysis but minimal benefit for ePTB analysis. Normal models on log-transformed data have the largest bias. Therefore we recommend finite mixture model for PTB study. Either finite mixture model or beta-binomial model is acceptable for ePTB study.     

Estimating function method for product autoregressive models

The first-order product autoregressive (PAR(1)) model introduced by McKenzie in 1982 McKenzie, E. D. (1982). Product autoregression: A time series characterization of the gamma distribution. Journal of Applied Probability 19:463–468. [Google Scholar] did not attract the attention of practitioners due to the unavailability of a proper estimation method. This article proposes an estimating function (EF) method to fill the gap. In particular, we suggest an optimal combination of linear and quadratic EFs to overcome the problem of parameter identification. The procedure is applied to Weibull and Gamma PAR(1) models. Simulation and data analysis show that the proposed method performs better than the existing methods.     

Bayesian prediction of order statistics with fixed and random sample sizes based on k-record values from Pareto distribution

In this paper, the two-parameter Pareto distribution is considered and the problem of prediction of order statistics from a future sample and that of its geometric mean are discussed. The Bayesian approach is applied to construct predictors based on observed k-record values for the cases when the future sample size is fixed and when it is random. Several Bayesian prediction intervals are derived. Finally, the results of a simulation study and a numerical example are presented for illustrating all the inferential procedures developed here.     

On fiducial generators

Fiducial inference has been gaining presence recently and it is the intention of the present article to look at the notion of fiducial generators; meaning procedures to simulate parameter values that in some sense correspond to simulations from some implicit fiducial distribution. It is well known that when the distribution has group structure, stemming from the natural pivotal associated, a fiducial may be obtained. It is in the non group distributions that there appears to be still room for finding a fiducial distribution. Recently some general procedures have been proposed for dealing with generalized fiducials, but these depend on certain choices for a structural equation or a fiducial equation, as in Hannig (2009 Hannig, J. (2009). On generalized fiducial inference. Stat. Sin. 19:491–544.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) or Taraldsen and Lindqvist (2013 Taraldsen, G., Lindqvist, B.H. (2013). Fiducial theory and optimal inference. Ann. Stat. 41(1):323–341.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), respectively. A brief presentation is made of an earlier approach to fiducial inference for multivariate parameters, as in Brillinger (1962 Brillinger, D.R. (1962). Examples bearing on the definition of fiducial probability with a bibliography. Ann. Math. Stat. 33(4):1349–1355.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), and the implied fiducial generator introduced in Engen and Lillegård (1997 Engen, S., Lillegård, M. (1997). Stochastic simulation conditioned on sufficient statistics. Biometrika 84(1):235–240.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), trying to connect them. Three interesting non group distributions are seen; two of them, the truncated exponential and the two-parameter gamma, already reported in literature. A third non group distribution is analyzed; the inverse Gaussian, connecting the fiducial that results following Brillinger (1962 Brillinger, D.R. (1962). Examples bearing on the definition of fiducial probability with a bibliography. Ann. Math. Stat. 33(4):1349–1355.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), with a result pertaining confidence limits for the shape parameter in Hsieh (1990 Hsieh, H.K. (1990). Inferences on the coefficient of variation of an inverse-Gaussian distribution. Commun. Stat. - Theory Methods 19(5):1589–1605.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). In the three cases, comparisons are made with the Bayesian posteriors that have been known to be close numerically. Some discussion is made on the issue of singularities of the fiducial density and its connection with densities that do not integrate to unity. As to the case of discrete observables, some comments are made for the Bernoulli distribution, only.     

International Migrant Remittances and Labour Supply in Nigeria

The study analyses how remittances to Nigeria affect the labour supply of recipients using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and a Log‐Linear regression model, with data from the 2013 Nigerian General Household Survey. The PSM results show that for the entire sample, the difference between the average amount of labour supplied per week by those that receive remittances and the amount they would have supplied without remittances is insignificant. The marginal impact analysis also shows that, ceteris paribus, the average labour supply for all recipients is inelastic to remittances. The results from the sub‐group analysis, however, show that receiving remittances negatively affects the labour supply of the self‐employed in agriculture, teenagers and the elderly. These results led us to the recommendation that policies to increase the inflow of remittances should be encouraged but in tandem with programmes to educate farmers on the benefit of investing remittances received in their farming business.     

Residential Remittances and Food Security in the Upper West Region of Ghana

In recent years, out migration from the Upper West Region to the southern belt of Ghana for farming has become commonplace. The natural question that has arisen is: what is the potential impact of remittances from this migration pattern on food security in the region? Using multivariate ordered logistic regression this study assesses the linkage between remittances and household food security (derived using the HFIAS) among urban and rural households (n=1,438) in the region. The findings show that urban remittance‐receiving households and rural remittance and non‐remittance receiving households were more likely (OR=2.44, p<0.05; OR=2.46, p<0.001; and OR=1.49, p<0.1, respectively) to report being more severely food‐insecure than urban non‐remittance receiving households. The findings demonstrate that household strategies such as migration and remittances on their own are not sufficient to ameliorate the precarious food insecurity situation of the region. The study calls for development of alternative livelihoods in the region.