Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Experiential Avoidance Mediates the Association Between Thought Suppression and Mindfulness with Problem Gambling

Experiential avoidance (EA) has been shown to be an important etiological and maintenance factor in a wide range psychopathology that includes addictive, anxiety, depressive and impulse control disorders. One common form of EA is thought suppression. Problem gambling causes enormous problems for afflicted individuals and has major social costs for their families and the community. Despite increasing interest in the contribution of EA to a broad range of psychological problems, its association with problem gambling has not previously been empirically investigated. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to investigate the relationship between EA, thought suppression, and mindfulness among a group of 103 treatment seeking problem gamblers. Of particular interest was the extent to which EA accounted for the relationships between problem gambling and the two theoretically opposing constructs: thought suppression and mindfulness. Results showed EA was predictive of problem gambling. Thought suppression was positively associated and mindfulness negatively associated with problem gambling, and these relationships were mediated by EA. Directions for future research are suggested which include the application of treatments for problem gambling that undermine EA, such as acceptance and mindfulness based therapies.     

文化的多元性与少数民族双语教学

现代化是每个民族繁荣昌盛的必由之路,丧失现代化意味着民族的贫困;每个民族又应保在自己的优秀文化传统,丧失文化传统意味着民族的消亡。民族教育中正确处理好现代化与传统文化的关系,就要做到民族教育的现代化和现代教育的现代化。文章结合两个藏汉双语教学的典型实践,从文化的多元性角度,引发了对民族教育中双语教学问题的思考。     

The Impact of Lean Management Practices and Sustainably‐Oriented Innovation on Sustainability Performance of Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprises: Empirical Evidence from the UK

While lean management practices (LMP) help small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) to be efficient, sustainability‐oriented innovation (SOI) facilitates adopting environmental and social practices. Although prior research looks into the effect of LMP on the economic performance (EP) of SMEs, less is known about the effect of LMP on sustainability (economic, environmental and social) performance. Studies on the effect of SOI on sustainability and economic performance are also scant. Additionally, examining the mediating effect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices (environmental and social practices) on both LMP and SOI achieving sustainability performance (SP) is rare. This research bridges these knowledge gaps by answering the question of how LMP, SOI, CSR practices, sustainability and economic performance are correlated. Through hypothesis testing using structural equation modelling, this study reveals the impact of LMP, SOI, CSR (environmental and social) practices on sustainability and economic performance. The study uses data from 119 SMEs within manufacturing industries in the Midlands, UK. The analysis reveals that LMP and SOI facilitate achieving both sustainability and economic performance, and SOI mediates LMP to achieve sustainability performance. Additionally, although CSR practices mediate LMP to achieve sustainability performance, they only borderline mediate SOI to achieve sustainability performance.     

Open Dialogue: Frequently Asked Questions

Open Dialogue is an approach to working with people and their families experiencing psychosocial distress. Interest in Open Dialogue in Australia has been growing recently, raising questions about its adaption and implementation to local contexts. This article is an attempt to answer some of the frequently asked questions we have encountered in training and discussions about Open Dialogue. We attempt to provide responses to questions of how Open Dialogue is different to what is done already, how it fits with current approaches, how you know if you are doing it, whether it is passive or just about doing reflections, issues about including the social network, and concerns about the evidence base. This article aims to present a variety of viewpoints in relation to these questions and to hopefully further discussions on how Open Dialogue can be implemented and adapted to Australian health care and social care contexts.     

What ‘works’ when retracing sample members in a qualitative longitudinal study?

Attrition represents a significant obstacle to overcome in any longitudinal research project. It is, perhaps, most keenly felt when the data collected are from a qualitative study, since, unlike quantitative longitudinal research, weighting factors cannot be applied to ‘correct’ for any biases in the achieved sample and even a small number of ‘lost’ respondents can equate to a large percentage of the original sample. It is perhaps because of qualitative longitudinal research’s (QLR) reliance on, generally speaking, smaller samples that few have been able to shed much light on which re-contacting procedures are associated with achieving higher rates of retention. In this article, using data from a fifth sweep of a larger but particularly challenging cohort of 199 former probationers, we explore the strategies which helped us maintain high levels of retention in a QLR study. The article contains many practical suggestions which others planning or undertaking similar studies may find useful.     

北流白话的介词及其用法

文章通过与现代汉语普通话介词的比较,确定了北流白话介词的数量和类型,并且比较全面地描写了北流白话的17个介词。     

DURATION MODELS FOR CREDIT RATING MIGRATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

We introduce a specific duration model to analyze the prediction of the credit rating migration. We consider hazard rate processes based on multi‐state autoregressive conditional duration models. To take account of the economic context, we model the conditional mean of the duration between two ratings by means of a latent process. To this purpose, a dynamic‐ordered probit model is developed to describe the directions taken by the ratings in the presence of multiple states. As an illustration, we study the migration of credit rating during periods before and after the financial crisis. (JEL C14, C41, G24)     

ACADEMIC PROBATION,STUDENT PERFORMANCE,AND STRATEGIC COURSE‐TAKING

We use a regression discontinuity design to study how academic probation affects outcomes and course‐taking behaviors at a large public university in the United States. Consistent with past work, students placed on probation improve their grade point average (GPA) in the subsequent semester. We document that part of this GPA improvement is attributable to strategic course‐taking, and there is significant heterogeneity in these behaviors across race. Non‐minority students placed on probation attempt fewer credits, easier courses, and are more likely to withdraw from courses in the following term. In contrast, underrepresented minorities exhibit few of these behaviors, consistent with past work that suggests black and Hispanic students are less likely to possess helpful institutional knowledge and use available support systems such as academic counseling. (JEL I20, I23)