法学方法新论

法学方法除了已有的价值评判、实证分析和社会实践以及法律解释、法律推理和逻辑分析等方法之外,还有其他法学方法,如从"事"(事物、事情)到"理"(道理),再从"理"到"法"(法律、法学),最后又从"法"到"事"。较之已有的法学方法,这些方法不仅是创新和发展,而且更为基础和根本。     

Hawkes过程分支比估计——一种简单的非参数方法

Hawkes自激发过程是近年来被广泛用于金融建模的一个良好模型。本文提出了一种Hawkes自激发过程的分支比的简单估计方法,该方法是对Hardiman和Bouchaud提出的均值-方差估计量的改进。在继承均值-方差估计量形式简便的优点的同时,克服其参数难以选择的缺陷,减小了估计的系统性偏差。模拟结果验证了改进的效果,同时我们将该估计方法用于我国股市内生性水平的分析之中。     

蓝田华胥陵--中华民族的始祖陵

根据古代神话传说 ,盘古开天辟地之后乃有三皇。三皇的说法不一 ,笔者认为从时间早晚上当以燧人氏、伏羲氏和女娲氏为宜。伏羲和女娲皆是神性和人性相结合的人类始祖 ,是东方的“亚当和夏娃”。伏羲和女娲乃华胥氏所生的儿女 ,因此华胥氏是中华民族最早的始祖。蓝田县华胥镇之羲母陵是独一无二的华胥陵 ,华胥陵及与华胥陵相关的三皇故居等遗迹遗址具有重大的历史价值和开发价值     

Dominance and Efficiency in Multicriteria Decision under Uncertainty

This paper proposes several concepts of efficient solutions for multicriteria decision problems under uncertainty. We show how alternative notions of efficiency may be grounded on different decision contexts, depending on what is known about the Decision Maker's (DM) preference structure and probabilistic anticipations. We define efficient sets arising naturally from polar decision contexts. We investigate these sets from the points of view of their relative inclusions and point out some particular subsets which may be especially relevant to some decision situations.     

关于“先进文化”的传播与高师教育的思考

先进文化作为较高层次的历史现象,理应对整个社会的发展作出应有的贡献.要充分发挥先进文化的先进作用,必须让民众深入了解先进文化.高师教育在教学过程中,应充分重视这一点,并把它当作自己的主要任务之一.     

试论周恩来新中国体育外交实践

体育既是竞技项目,又具有群众性,更是国民素质和综合国力的体现,在曾担任26年国务院总理的周恩来看来,体育还是外交的组成部分。因此,他十分关心体育事业,不仅推动了新中国体育事业的大发展,而且,通过体育又推动了外交的大发展。     

Robustness of Risk Maps and Survey Networks to Knowledge Gaps About a New Invasive Pest

In pest risk assessment it is frequently necessary to make management decisions regarding emerging threats under severe uncertainty. Although risk maps provide useful decision support for invasive alien species, they rarely address knowledge gaps associated with the underlying risk model or how they may change the risk estimates. Failure to recognize uncertainty leads to risk‐ignorant decisions and miscalculation of expected impacts as well as the costs required to minimize these impacts. Here we use the information gap concept to evaluate the robustness of risk maps to uncertainties in key assumptions about an invading organism. We generate risk maps with a spatial model of invasion that simulates potential entries of an invasive pest via international marine shipments, their spread through a landscape, and establishment on a susceptible host. In particular, we focus on the question of how much uncertainty in risk model assumptions can be tolerated before the risk map loses its value. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. The results provide a spatial representation of the robustness of predictions of S. noctilio invasion risk to uncertainty and show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of uncertainty in model parameters may change management decisions about a new invasive pest. We then illustrate how the dependency between the extent of uncertainties and the degree of robustness of a risk map can be used to select a surveillance network design that is most robust to knowledge gaps about the pest.     

Measurement error in the generalised linear model

This paper considers the problem of estimating the linear parameters of a Generalised Linear Model (GLM) when the explanatory variable is subject to measurement error. In this situation the induced model for dependence on the approximate explanatory variable is not usually of GLM form. However, when the distribution of measurement error is known or estimated from replicated measurements, application of the GLIM iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm with transformed data and weighting is shown to produce maximum quasi likelihood estimates in many cases. Details of this approach are given for two particular generalized linear models; simulation results illustrate the usefulness of the theory for these models.     

失业与就业:一个世界性的难题

在世界经济日益一体化的今天，综观全球，人们会惊奇地发现，失业———这一伴随资本主义生产方式和市场经济的产生而出现的社会现象，已经成为一个困扰许多国家经济和社会发展的严重问题。从西欧到东欧，从北美到南美，从发达国家到发展中国家，失业与就业成为人们关注的焦点，“创造就业机会”、“制定反失业对策”成为各国经济政策的首要目标。可以毫不夸张地说，当今世界几乎所有的国家，都不得不面对失业与就业这一世界性的难题。本文试图从宏观的角度，对世界各国不同类型的失业，以及主要资本主义国家治理失业与贫困问题的社会政策，进行分析与考察，从中总结出一些带有普遍性规律性的问题，为我国实施再就业工程提供决策思路和有益借鉴