Forecasting mortality rates via density ratio modeling

The authors propose a semiparametric approach to modeling and forecasting age‐specific mortality in the United States. Their method is based on an extension of a class of semiparametric models to time series. It combines information from several time series and estimates the predictive distribution conditional on past data. The conditional expectation, which is the most commonly used predictor in practice, is the first moment of this distribution. The authors compare their method to that of Lee and Carter.     

The importance of preservation of the ethical principle of equipoise in the design of clinical trials: relative impact of the methodological quality domains on the treatment effect in randomized controlled trials

Previous research has identified methodological problems in the design and conduct of randomized trials that could, if left unaddressed, lead to biased results. In this report we discuss one such problem, inadequate control intervention, and argue that it can be by far the most important design characteristic of randomized trials in overestimating the effect of new treatments. Current guidelines for the design and reporting of randomized trials, such as the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) statement, do not address the choice of the comparator intervention. We argue that an adequate control intervention can be selected if people designing a trial explicitly take into consideration the ethical principle of equipoise, also known as "the uncertainty principle."     

An Empirical Investigation of Terrorism-induced Stress on Expatriate Attitudes and Performance

Despite international terrorism's increasing relevance for international business, the effects of terrorism that confront employees during assignments abroad have hardly been investigated. Applying a stress perspective, this article analyzes the impact of terrorism-induced stress on attitudes and the performance of expatriates. Employing data from 143 expatriate managers in high-risk countries, the study shows that several terrorism-related stressors create a significant stress level for the individual, causing negative work attitudes and attitudes towards host country nationals (disaffection). This eventually leads to worse performance. We applied partial least squares (PLS) structural equation modeling (SEM) to analyze the entire impact path and found substantial support for our hypotheses. Of all the relevant stressors, intra-family conflicts due to terrorism have the greatest impact.     

An Australian Paperbound-Books Library Shelf for Social Work Students

This article explores the links between two areas of practice—working with families involved in divorce or with children in care. There are many parallels between such apparently different kinds of work. Children and parents in both situations experience a sense of grief and loss. The children become part of two families: how well they manage this reflects how the adults involved cope. Some strategies can help in both areas such as encouraging shared decision-making, using written agreements and having a neutral person to negotiate with.     

Intercounty Variability of Net Migration at Older Ages as a Path‐Dependent Process

This article seeks to identify factors associated with the formation and development of nonmetropolitan destinations for older in‐migration, thereby explaining why some U.S. counties are more likely than others to be nonmetro retirement destinations. We contend that most nonmetro retirement destinations are established and developed over time through a path‐dependent process. When amenities are commodified as recreation and tourism, migration streams tend to be established that ultimately produce sustained in‐migration of older persons to selected destination communities. We use data from a variety of official sources and a spatial statistics methodology to examine intercounty variability in net migration rates at ages 60–74. Our findings are consistent with the aforementioned path‐dependent development framework. Counties with a long history of population growth, previous experience attracting older in‐migrants, attractive natural amenities, and a developed recreation and tourism industry are those most likely to be retirement‐age migration destinations. In contrast, agricultural heartland and relatively large population size are associated with lower rates of older in‐migration. Older in‐migration should be seen as neither a panacea for strapped rural communities nor a “pensions and care issue.” Older migrants can be “gray gold,” but they can also pose challenges, such as possibly increased demand for public services as they age in place.     

A lofistic rlgression analysis of response-time data where the hazard function is time dependent

A logistic-exponential model for analyzing response-time data involving regressor variables is modified to allow for non-consrarey of the hazard function. For the discrete observation case illustrated the logit of the probability of responding in a time interval cf arbitrary length is taken as the sum of a function of resressor variables and a function of the time variable. The particular functions chosen in the two medical examples analyzed are linear in the parameters involved. A polynomial function of time is employed in the absence of knowledge as to a more appropriate form. Various issues arising in the analysis made are discussed.     

ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND THE EXCESS VOLATILITY OF STOCK PRICES

Evidence suggests the volatility of stock prices cannot be accounted for by information about future dividends. We argue that some of the volatility of stock prices in excess of fundamentals results from fluctuations in the amount of public information over time. Our model assumes that dividends and consumption are constant in the aggregate but that there are good firms and bad firms whose identity may be unknown to the public, as in Akerlof's "lemons" problem. In that case, the collective valuation of the constant dividend stream depends on the degree of informational asymmetry.