“Modest doubt is called the beacon of the wise”—Incorporating uncertainty in risk analysis from Shakespeare to today

“Modest doubt is call'd the beacon of the wise.”—William Shakespeare, Troilus and Cressida. Although the character Hector warns his fellow Trojans with this line not to engage in war against the Greeks, Shakespeare's works are replete with characters who do not incorporate modest doubt, or any consideration of uncertainty, in their risk decisions. Perhaps Shakespeare was simply a keen observer of human nature. Although risk science has developed tremendously over the last five decades (and scientific inquiry over five centuries), the human mind still frequently defaults to conviction about certain beliefs, absent sufficient scientific evidence—which has effects not just on individual lives, but on policy decisions that affect many. This perspective provides background on the Shakespearean quote in its literary and historical context. Then, as this quote is the theme of the 2023 Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, we describe how “modest doubt”—incorporating the notion of uncertainty into risk analysis for individual and policy decisions—is still the “beacon of the wise” today.     

Documents in a Field of Action: Using Documents to Address Research Questions About Nonprofit and Voluntary Organizations

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - In this article we show the potential of using documents to answer research questions pertinent to nonprofit and voluntary...     

A Mixed-Methods Approach to Refining and Measuring the Construct of Positive Risk-Taking in Adolescence

Adolescence is a peak period for risk-taking, but research has largely overlooked positive manifestations of adolescent risk-taking due to ambiguity regarding operationalization and measurement of positive risk-taking. We address this limitation using a mixed-methods approach. We elicited free responses from contemporary college students (N = 74, M_age = 20.1 years) describing a time they took a risk. Qualitative analysis informed the construction of a self-report positive risk-taking scale, which was administered to a population-based sample of adolescents (N = 1,249, M_age = 16 years) for quantitative validation and examination of associations with normative and impulsive personality. Sensation seeking predicted negative and positive risk-taking, whereas extraversion and openness were predominantly related to positive risk-taking. Results provide promising evidence for a valid measure of adolescents' engagement in positive risks.     

The Role of Operational Interdependence and Supervisory Experience on Management Assessments of Resource Planning Systems

Greater interdependence among workers and activities not only increases the need for internal communication, but it also imposes complications and barriers to effective information exchange. Intraorganizational communication capabilities of certain information systems can help overcome these barriers. However, the extent to which certain systems are promoted as communication tools depends largely on management's interpretation of their usefulness, which in turn may be largely dependent on operational context and managerial experience. We use a controlled experimental approach to study how these issues interact to impact managerial assessments of resource planning systems. Results show that managers value the communication capabilities of resource planning systems more so in highly task‐interdependent contexts and that these assessments are still more positive among managers with greater supervisory experience. As a result, these findings pose direct implications regarding the management support of technology use.     

Short-term impacts of urban landscape conversion on surface runoff quality

Urban Ecosystems - Given the rapid pace of urbanization and resulting pressures on water supplies in many regions, landscape water conservation has become increasingly important for many...     

The Dynamics of Inequality

The past forty years have seen a rapid rise in top income inequality in the United States. While there is a large number of existing theories of the Pareto tail of the long‐run income distributions, almost none of these address the fast rise in top inequality observed in the data. We show that standard theories, which build on a random growth mechanism, generate transition dynamics that are too slow relative to those observed in the data. We then suggest two parsimonious deviations from the canonical model that can explain such changes: “scale dependence” that may arise from changes in skill prices, and “type dependence,” that is, the presence of some “high‐growth types.” These deviations are consistent with theories in which the increase in top income inequality is driven by the rise of “superstar” entrepreneurs or managers.