A Proposed Hybrid Effect Size Plus p-Value Criterion: Empirical Evidence Supporting its Use

ABSTRACT

When the editors of Basic and Applied Social Psychology effectively banned the use of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) from articles published in their journal, it set off a fire-storm of discussions both supporting the decision and defending the utility of NHST in scientific research. At the heart of NHST is the p-value which is the probability of obtaining an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed in the sample data, given the null hypothesis and other model assumptions. Although this is conceptually different from the probability of the null hypothesis being true, given the sample, p-values nonetheless can provide evidential information, toward making an inference about a parameter. Applying a 10,000-case simulation described in this article, the authors found that p-values’ inferential signals to either reject or not reject a null hypothesis about the mean (α?=?0.05) were consistent for almost 70% of the cases with the parameter’s true location for the sampled-from population. Success increases if a hybrid decision criterion, minimum effect size plus p-value (MESP), is used. Here, rejecting the null also requires the difference of the observed statistic from the exact null to be meaningfully large or practically significant, in the researcher’s judgment and experience. The simulation compares performances of several methods: from p-value and/or effect size-based, to confidence-interval based, under various conditions of true location of the mean, test power, and comparative sizes of the meaningful distance and population variability. For any inference procedure that outputs a binary indicator, like flagging whether a p-value is significant, the output of one single experiment is not sufficient evidence for a definitive conclusion. Yet, if a tool like MESP generates a relatively reliable signal and is used knowledgeably as part of a research process, it can provide useful information.     

Politics of Hospitality: African Students at the Hebrew University Medical School in the 1960s

From 1961-1965, the Medical School of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem taught four cohorts of medical students from developing countries, mostly African. This article explores the program through the theory of hospitality. First, we find that hospitality is constructed and enabled by international interests. Second, those interests build a status which has unexpected consequences that reveal sorts of hosts, welcoming and xenophobic. Third, as an outcome of the international structure of student exchange, the guests' response to the terms of hospitality was mitigated by their privileged status as international medical students. On the one hand, they appreciated Israel as a model of post-colonial state-building; on the other, they criticized the racist reactions to their presence.     

A FEW GOODMEN: SURNAME‐SHARING ECONOMIST COAUTHORS

We explore the phenomenon of coauthorship by economists who share a surname. Prior research has included at most three economist coauthors who share a surname. Ours is the first paper to have four economist coauthors who share a surname, as well as the first where such coauthors are unrelated by marriage, blood, or current campus. (JEL Y9)     

The origins of agriculture: Population growth during a period of declining health

The increase in the Neolithic human population following the development of agriculture has been assumed to result from improvements in health and nutrition. Recent research demonstrates that this assumption is incorrect. With the development of sedentism and the intensification of agriculture, there is an increase in infectious disease and nutritional deficiencies particularly affecting infants and children.Declining health probably increased mortality among infants, children and oldest adults. However, the productive and reproductive core would have been able to respond to this increase in mortality by reducing birth spacing. That is, agricultural populations increased in size, despite higher mortality, because intervals between births became shorter.     

Understanding contextual effects on externalizing behaviors in children in out-of-home care: Influence of workers and foster families

The expression of externalizing behaviors of children in-care can be influenced by a multitude of factors. The current study examined the simultaneous levels of influence of workers and foster families on children's externalizing behaviors in those receiving out-of-home care. A cross-classified multilevel model was used to partition variance in children in-care's externalizing scores into worker, foster family and child-specific levels of influence. The extent to which processes are explained by worker and foster-family level predictors was examined. Assessment and Action Record (AAR) data from the Ontario Looking after Children (OnLAC) project were analyzed. The sample included data from 1063 children between 10 and 17 years of age (M age = 13 years, 6 months, SD = 2.08 years). While individual differences in children's externalizing behaviors were primarily attributable to child-specific effects (72%), 10% and 18% of the variance can be explained by worker and foster family influences respectively. Worker education accounted for substantial differences seen between workers where more difficult children were monitored by workers with less educational attainment. Furthermore, foster-family level predictors also explained variance in children's externalizing behaviors. Relative to children in foster care, those in kinship care displayed significantly lower levels of problem behaviors while children in group care displayed significantly higher levels. Higher levels of parental negativity within the foster family and the experience of more differential parental negativity relative to siblings were significantly associated with more externalizing behaviors. Lastly, children who were more satisfied with their placement displayed significantly lower levels of problematic behaviors. These results suggest that children in-care can be conceptualized within a multilevel framework.     

PARTY CUES IN ELECTIONS UNDER MULTILEVEL GOVERNANCE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM US STATES

In federal countries, voters’ ability to evaluate the performance of their leaders might be reduced when different levels of government shape policy outcomes. This can blur political accountability. In this article, we analyze how party cues (i.e., politicians’ party membership acting as a cue towards their characteristics) affect voters’ incomplete information in a federal setting. We theoretically show that party cues allow indirect inference regarding politicians using observed policy outcomes, and can alleviate the accountability problem. Empirical evidence from US presidential election results across all 50 US states over the period 1972–2008 supports this proposition. However, party cues also have a downside in that they may reduce politicians’ effort, particularly when politicians at different levels of government are from different parties.     

Why is Getting Rid of P-Values So Hard? Musings on Science and Statistics

ABSTRACT

The current concerns about reproducibility have focused attention on proper use of statistics across the sciences. This gives statisticians an extraordinary opportunity to change what are widely regarded as statistical practices detrimental to the cause of good science. However, how that should be done is enormously complex, made more difficult by the balkanization of research methods and statistical traditions across scientific subdisciplines. Working within those sciences while also allying with science reform movements—operating simultaneously on the micro and macro levels—are the key to making lasting change in applied science.     

Fodor's Impasse – a Converse Perspective and a Way Out

In recent publications, Fodor points out a basic impasse that the representational-computational view of mind confronts. Mental representations have to serve two functions—to be the substrate of mental computations and to be the carriers of meaning. Fodor points out that these two functions cannot be brought together and concludes that semantics is not part of psychology. On the basis of similar observations, I suggest drawing another conclusion, namely, that the premises of the representational-computational view are wrong, and that psychology is not mentalistic. The discussion presents a fundamental contrast between two notions of the key term semantics. These, in turn, define two different perspectives for cognitive research. A third perspective for the study of meaning and cognition is suggested. With it, it is argued, the Fodorian impasse is avoided.