New High-Speed Computing Devices

“One method of error analysis (not the one we will use) is based upon the principles of mathematical statistics. Unfortunately, statistical methods can only be meaningfully applied when one has large amounts of data for a given system. In many cases … these large quantities of data are not available … then statistical methods are not applicable, and some other methods must be devised.”     

Judgment aggregation without full rationality

Several recent results on the aggregation of judgments over logically connected propositions show that, under certain conditions, dictatorships are the only propositionwise aggregation functions generating fully rational (i.e., complete and consistent) collective judgments. A frequently mentioned route to avoid dictatorships is to allow incomplete collective judgments. We show that this route does not lead very far: we obtain oligarchies rather than dictatorships if instead of full rationality we merely require that collective judgments be deductively closed, arguably a minimal condition of rationality, compatible even with empty judgment sets. We derive several characterizations of oligarchies and provide illustrative applications to Arrowian preference aggregation and Kasher and Rubinstein’s group identification problem. This paper was circulated in August 2006 and presented at the Yale workshop on Aggregation of Opinions, September 2006, at the Centre interuniversitaire de rechere en économie quantitative, Montreal, October 2006, and at the 1st International Workshop on Computational Social Choice, Amsterdam, December 2006. We are grateful to the participants at these occasions and the anonymous referees for comments. We also thank Ton Storcken for discussion. Elad Dokow and Ron Holzman have independently proved closely related results, which were also presented at the Yale workshop in September 2006, and circulated in the December 2006 paper (Dokow and Holzman 2006).     

Comparison of the Historic Recycling Risk for BSE in Three European Countries by Calculating the Basic Reproduction Ratio R0

A deterministic model of BSE transmission is used to calculate the R(0) values for specific years of the BSE epidemics in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands (NL), and Switzerland (CH). In all three countries, the R(0) values decreased below 1 after the introduction of a ban on feeding meat and bone meal (MBM) to ruminants around the 1990s. A variety of additional measures against BSE led to further decrease of R(0) to about 0.06 in the years around 1998. The calculated R(0) values were consistent with the observations made on the surveillance results for UK, but were partially conflicting with the surveillance results for NL and CH. There was evidence for a dependency of the BSE epidemic in NL and CH from an infection source not considered in the deterministic transmission model. Imports of MBM and feed components can be an explanation for this discrepancy, and the importance of imports for these observations is discussed.     

Increasing inter‐generational social mobility: is educational expansion the answer?

Reforms which increase the stock of education in a society have long been held by policy‐makers as key to improving rates of intergenerational social mobility. Yet, despite the intuitive plausibility of this idea, the empirical evidence in support of an effect of educational expansion on social fluidity is both indirect and weak. In this paper we use the raising of the minimum school leaving age from 15 to 16 years in England and Wales in 1972 to estimate the effect of educational participation and qualification attainment on rates of intergenerational social class mobility. Because, in expectation, children born immediately before and after the policy was implemented are statistically exchangeable, the difference in the amount of education they received may be treated as exogenously determined. The exogenous nature of the additional education gain means that differences in rates of social mobility between cohorts affected by the reform can be treated as having been caused by the additional education. The data for the analysis come from the ONS Longitudinal Study, which links individual records from successive decennial censuses between 1971 and 2001. Our findings show that, although the reform resulted in an increase in educational attainment in the population as a whole and a weakening of the association between attainment and class origin, there was no reliably discernible increase in the rate of intergenerational social mobility.     

Latino Phenotypic Discrimination Revisited: The Impact of Skin Color on Occupational Status

Objective . We reexamine the issue of phenotypic discrimination against Mexicans in the U.S. labor market, originally studied by Telles and Murguia (1990) and later by Bohara and Davila (1992). We also seek to explain this topic with respect to the Puerto Rican and Cuban populations in the United States. Methods . Instead of using household income as a dependent variable, we use occupational ranking scores computed by Hauser and Warren (1996) in combination with data from the 1990 Latino National Political Survey (LNPS). The occupational rankings more accurately reflect the level of labor market discrimination faced by individuals. Furthermore, the use of the more recent LNPS allows us to update the work of previous scholars and extend the analysis to two previously unexamined Latino groups—Puerto Ricans and Cubans. Results . Our findings indicate that darker-skinned Mexicans and Cubans face significantly lower occupational prestige scores than their lighter-skinned counterparts even when controlling for factors that influence performance in the labor market. However, we find no conclusive evidence that skin-color differences impact occupational prestige scores for Puerto Ricans. Conclusions . Using earlier data, some scholars found evidence for difference in labor market performance among Mexican Americans as a function of phenotypic variations among Mexican Americans. Today, dark-skinned Mexican Americans and Cuban Americans continue to face higher levels of discrimination in the labor market, whereas dark-skinned Puerto Ricans do not, which may indicate regional differences across the three groups that need to be controlled for.     

TMR: An Automated System for Managing Revenue

Abstract

The Total Medical Record (TMR) system used by the Division of University Health Services at Duke University is an integrated medical and management information system. One module supports the financial needs of the division. To facilitate managerial performance, TMR automatically prints insurance claims, refund statements, revenue summary data, service utilization, itemized visit statements, monthly patient bills, dunning letters, and has a host of unique features that aid management with controlling the private fees generated by the University Health Services. In addition, the servicing of prepaid programs is accommodated, and the splitting of charges between prepaid and fee-for-service programs occurs automatically.     

A Model for Setting Performance Objectives for Salmonella in the Broiler Supply Chain

A stochastic model for setting performance objectives for Salmonella in the broiler supply chain was developed. The goal of this study was to develop a model by which performance objectives for Salmonella prevalence at various points in the production chain can be determined, based on a preset final performance objective at the end of the processing line. The transmission of Salmonella through the broiler production chain was modeled. The prevalence at flock level was calculated from the measured prevalence at sample level. The transmission model is based on data on the occurrence of Salmonella collected in the Dutch broiler production chain during several years. The developed model can be used by policymakers and industry to determine economically and politically acceptable performance objectives for various points of the production chain and to draw conclusions about which interventions are most appropriate.     

Arbeitsmarktforschung und Arbeitsmarktstatistik aus der Sicht der wirtschaftspolitischen Beratung: Erfahrungen und Perspektiven

Zusammenfassung: Dieser Beitrag beleuchtet aus der Sicht der wirtschaftspolitischen Beratung einige Anforderungen an die Arbeitsmarkt?konomik und Arbeitsmarktstatistik. Drei Bereiche werden angesprochen: die Arbeitslosenstatistik, die Tariflohnpolitik und die aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik. Dabei werden zun?chst die Bemühungen hinsichtlich einer realistischeren Erfassung der Unterbesch?ftigung gewürdigt, zugleich aber Hinweise auf Verbesserungsm?glichkeiten gegeben. Anforderungen an die amtliche Statistik ergeben sich des Weiteren hinsichtlich der Tarifentgelte. In diesem Zusammenhang wird die Umsetzung der Erkenntnisse der Arbeitsmarkt?konomik in eine lohnpolitische Orientierungshilfe skizziert. Schlie?lich erfolgt eine kritische Einsch?tzung des Erfolgs der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik, wobei eine zunehmende Willigkeit zur Bereitstellung der für die Evaluation erforderlichen Daten konstatiert werden kann.

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Summary: This paper deals with three demands on labor economics and labor statistics put forward from the point of view of an advisor to economic policy. Despite several improvements of unemployment statistics, a lot of work remains to be done. With respect to wage policy attempts by the German Council of Economic Experts are discussed how to formulate a guidance for wage policy both on scientific grounds and understandable by the public. Finally, a critical assessment of active labor market policies is presented together with a plea for adequate individual data in order to carry out a sound evaluation of these policies.

* Vortrag für die „Statistische Woche“, die Jahrestagung der Deutschen Statistischen Gesellschaft am 20. September 2004 in Frankfurt/Main. Der Vortragsstil wurde beibehalten. Die hier vorgetragenen Auffassungen liegen allein in der Verantwortung des Autors und stellen nicht notwendigerweise die Auffassungen anderer Institutionen dar. Ich danke Bernd Fitzenberger (Universit?t Frankfurt/Main und ZEW), Joachim M?ller (Universit?t Regensburg), Bernhard Boockmann und Tobias Hagen (ZEW), Irmtraud Beuerlein und Dirk Heinlein (Statistisches Bundesamt) für hilfreiche Kommentare und Anregungen. Verbleibende M?ngel gehen—leider—zu meinen Lasten.     

Economics of (oil) price politics: Penalizing price changes

This article studies intertemporal monopolistic pricing strategies when demand is dynamic and when price volatility may harm other producer objectives, e.g. the political good will for an international cartel. The major implications from this framework are that the introduction of a penalty for price changes may actually change an otherwise (at least locally) monotonic policy into a (transiently) oscillatory strategy; on the other hand, penalizing price changes smooths the price policy when demand is convex and the optimal strategy would otherwise be extremely volatile. But, then, all various types of solutions—cyclical and even unstable solutions—may occur.