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71.
丁邦新 《北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2005,42(5):137-138
本文讨论如何利用方言词汇结合汉语词汇史的研究给方言分区,一共举了三个例子,闽语的“鼎”字和“拍”(打)字以及粤语的“睇”字,指出词汇溯源的困难以及单用词汇作方言分区的局限。 相似文献
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弗朗茨&#;里伏特 《盐城师范学院学报》2007,27(2):105-109
怀特海的循环学习理论认为,每一个循环学习周期都包含了三个阶段:浪漫阶段、精确阶段和综合运用阶段。这一理论得到了实证研究的确认,对学校教育具有积极的启示作用。 相似文献
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Multiple testing procedures defined by directed, weighted graphs have recently been proposed as an intuitive visual tool for constructing multiple testing strategies that reflect the often complex contextual relations between hypotheses in clinical trials. Many well‐known sequentially rejective tests, such as (parallel) gatekeeping tests or hierarchical testing procedures are special cases of the graph based tests. We generalize these graph‐based multiple testing procedures to adaptive trial designs with an interim analysis. These designs permit mid‐trial design modifications based on unblinded interim data as well as external information, while providing strong family wise error rate control. To maintain the familywise error rate, it is not required to prespecify the adaption rule in detail. Because the adaptive test does not require knowledge of the multivariate distribution of test statistics, it is applicable in a wide range of scenarios including trials with multiple treatment comparisons, endpoints or subgroups, or combinations thereof. Examples of adaptations are dropping of treatment arms, selection of subpopulations, and sample size reassessment. If, in the interim analysis, it is decided to continue the trial as planned, the adaptive test reduces to the originally planned multiple testing procedure. Only if adaptations are actually implemented, an adjusted test needs to be applied. The procedure is illustrated with a case study and its operating characteristics are investigated by simulations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
76.
Franz Pfuff 《Statistics》2013,47(2):195-209
In this paper, problems of sequential decision theory are taken into consideration by extending the definition of the BAYES rule and treating BAYES rules. This generalisation is quite useful for practice. In many cases only BAYES rules can be calculated. The conditions under which such sequential decision procedures exist are demonstrated, as well as how to construct them on a scheme of backward induction resulting in the conclusion that the existence of BAYES rules needs essentially weaker assumptions than the existence of BAYES rules.Futhermore, methods are searched to simplify the construction of optimal stopping rules. Some illustrative examples are given. 相似文献
77.
We reconsider the signal-extraction approach to measuring premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange, put forward by Wolff, in which the difference between the forward rate and the associated future spot rate is modeled as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for the risk premium buried in a white-noise forecast error. We point out that an ARMA model for the risk premium is not always identifiable from information on the difference between the forward rate and the future spot rate only. We present solutions to the problem of identification and show how the model for the risk premium can be estimated in a direct way, provided that the identification problem is solved. For reason of comparison, we use the series analyzed by Wolff to estimate the models for risk premia. The results confirm the earlier finding that premia in forward exchange exhibit a certain degree of persistence over time. 相似文献
78.
Prof. Dr. Franz Urban Pappi Susumu Shikano Evelyn Bytzek 《KZfSS K?lner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie》2004,56(1):51-70
Political events, entering the political system as external shocks, can have a sizable impact on the popularity of political parties and politicians. We investigate this impact using as examples the unregistered campaign donations to chancellor Kohl (CDU-Spendenaffäre) and the political handling of the flash flood in the Elbe region shortly before the last federal election. Our special contribution to the literature is the combined analysis of event impacts on the valence dimension of the German party system and the inertia of the ideological dimension. By using a principal component analysis we extract a two-dimensional political configuration containing the position of parties and politicians and voters’ ideal points. We show that the basic ideological structure of the party system remains nearly unaltered even by such prominent events as the Spendenaffäre (donations scandal). The main changes affect the valence dimension. Focusing on voters we show that the greatest change of evaluation of parties takes place within the group of independents while the partisans remain rather stable in their assessments. 相似文献
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Franz Urban Pappi Jens Brandenburg 《KZfSS K?lner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie》2008,60(3):457-472
Social influences on the class vote result in a higher SPD-vote of workers who live in class homogeneous environments. These environments can be operationalized as ego-centric networks. In West Germany, these social influences are restricted to older cohorts and earlier Bundestag elections. This result gets corroborated by applying a more sophisticated dynamic version of an influence model, which analyses the relationship between party identification and the vote intention. It is shown that workers who do not identify with a party get mobilized as SPD-voters during election campaigns if they have contacts with other workers. This effect cannot be observed with ALLBUS-data from 1980, 1990 and 2000 for which interviewing did not take place during election campaigns. What has not changed in the last decades is the recruitment of friends and acquaintances from the same social class and subjective class identification under the impact of class homogeneous networks. What has changed is the politisation of these class homogeneous networks. 相似文献