The use of large-group role-play techniques in social work education

The social work student's dilemma of how to link theory to practice is explored and developed by the use of a 'large-group role play' as part of a university-based DipSW programme. This project, although challenging to deliver, has met with an enthusiastic response from DipSW students.     

Assessment and intervention in cases of suspected ritual child sexual abuse

Agency workers have been heavily criticized over their handling of alleged ritual child sexual abuse cases, particularly in respect of their assessments and interventions. However, a study of referrals to police and social service departments revealed that agency workers raised suspicions of ritual abuse in respect of both child ‘victims’ and adult ‘survivors’ very rarely. Furthermore, they did this only after an assessment which showed the cases to possess a number of ‘troubling’ features. While agency workers believed that all the child ‘victims’ had been subject to serious sexual abuse, virtually all of them were circumspect as to whether this had occurred in a ‘ritual’ context. Initially, agency workers were generally open-minded as to the experiences of adult ‘survivors’, but by the end of their assessments, they tended to be more concerned about their mental health and less concerned about issues of ritual abuse. Finally, agency workers appeared to act appropriately in terms of the types of intervention they used and the way in which they applied these. These results suggest that there should be more confidence in the ability of agency workers to respond to cases of alleged ritual abuse. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sleeping Beauty and the absent-minded driver

The Sleeping Beauty problem is presented in a formalized framework which summarizes the underlying probability structure. The two rival solutions proposed by Elga (Analysis 60:143–147, 2000) and Lewis (Analysis 61:171–176, 2001) differ by a single parameter concerning her prior probability. They can be supported by considering, respectively, that Sleeping Beauty is “fuzzy-minded” and “blank-minded”, the first interpretation being more natural than the second. The traditional absent-minded driver problem is reinterpreted in this framework and sustains Elga’s solution.     

Is Workers' Compensation a Substitute for Unemployment Insurance?

This paper examines how the Workers' Compensation (WC) and Unemployment Insurance (UI) programs interact to influence the duration of claims due to workplace accidents. We use longitudinal WC administrative micro-data on more than 30,000 workers in the Canadian construction industry for the period 1976–1986. For the estimations, we use the Meyer (1990) semi-parametric proportional hazard model. Our results show, in particular, that a reduction in the UI replacement ratio is associated with an increase in the duration of claims due to severe accidents that are difficult to diagnose. Moreover, the duration of spells on WC is much higher when an accident occurs in December, a month which corresponds to the beginning of the lay-off season in the construction sector. This result is consistent with the fact that WC benefits are more generous than UI benefits in Canada.     

A Markov chain model used in analyzing disease history applied to a stroke study

In clinical research, study subjects may experience multiple events that are observed and recorded periodically. To analyze transition patterns of disease processes, it is desirable to use those multiple events over time in the analysis. This study proposes a multi-state Markov model with piecewise transition probability, which is able to accommodate periodically observed clinical data without a time homogeneity assumption. Models with ordinal outcomes that incorporate covariates are also discussed. The proposed models are illustrated by an analysis of the severity of morbidity in a monthly follow-up study for patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.     

The Future of Sociology

The variety of efforts that have constituted the twentieth-century sociological project are to be celebrated. Although I am somewhat ambivalent about sociology's future, I am confident of its substantial continuation. Yet I worry about its future as an identifiable scholarly craft on U.S. campuses. Contemporary working sociologists must protect their craft's legacy by making a nurturing place for young scholars in the US. academy.     

Alcohol Education Project: Preliminary Answers

Abstract

The goal of the five year University of Massachusetts (UMass) Demonstration Alcohol Education Project has been to promote responsible decision making about alcohol use. The UMass/Amherst campus has 25,000 students, of which there is an approximate one third turnover every academic year. Educational methods used to achieve the goal have included community development, mass media, and such intensive approaches as workshops, courses, and guest lectures. Mass media reaches up to 70% of the student body, while intensive interventions reach about 5%.

Data has been gathered from a large number of sources in order to evaluate the following objectives: 1) University students will demonstrate decreased inappropriate alcohol consumption patterns. 2) University students will demonstrate an increased level of planning, conducting, and participation in responsible social activities. 3) University students will demonstrate an increased number of interventions with peers around alcohol issues. 4) University students will demonstrate a decrease in peer pressures which contribute to inappropriate alcohol use among their peers. 5) Key people within the university community will demonstrate an increase in behavior which encourages responsible decisions about alcohol.

Analysis of the program model indicates the initial assumptions were generally valid. For example, predisposing factors such as attitudes toward drinking, and certain demographics are in fact predictors of contexts and quantity and frequency of drinking, which are in turn predictors of negative consequences. Preliminary results from the data collected indicate significant changes in knowledge, but no significant change in individual behavior for the parameters measured. There are indications of trends toward changes in party giving behaviors and heightened alcohol awareness in certain dormitories. Additionally, the university community designed and adopted a set of guidelines for interpretation of the trustees' policy on consumption of alcoholic beverages on campus. The guidelines were designed to be social and educational in nature; their impact was confounded when the minimum drinking age for the state was raised to 20.     

Posterior probability intervals for wavelet thresholding

Summary. We use cumulants to derive Bayesian credible intervals for wavelet regression estimates. The first four cumulants of the posterior distribution of the estimates are expressed in terms of the observed data and integer powers of the mother wavelet functions. These powers are closely approximated by linear combinations of wavelet scaling functions at an appropriate finer scale. Hence, a suitable modification of the discrete wavelet transform allows the posterior cumulants to be found efficiently for any given data set. Johnson transformations then yield the credible intervals themselves. Simulations show that these intervals have good coverage rates, even when the underlying function is inhomogeneous, where standard methods fail. In the case where the curve is smooth, the performance of our intervals remains competitive with established nonparametric regression methods.