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Abraham Lincoln's dictum that you may fool all of the people some of the time; and some of the people all of the time; but you can't fool all of the people all of the time, is interpreted in terms of a simple binomial model, and potential ambiguities in Lincoln's assertion are clarified.  相似文献   
363.
Bernard Benjamin 《Omega》1974,2(2):263-267
Rational management depends upon the provision and proper use of information about the determinants and probable consequences of decisions. The provision of this information is a task best left to the services of a statistician who is professionally competent and himself uncommitted to policy and therefore in a position to offer objective judgment. What is required is an effective dialogue between the manager who asks pertinent questions and the statistician who provides relevant answers. How can this dialogue be made effective? Can the manager trust the statistician? Will the statistician be listened to? This paper examines the conditions necessary to ensure mutual trust between manager and information services. It offers guidelines for the behaviour of both parties to the dialogue.  相似文献   
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The recent intense focus on marketplace reform has stimulated a reassessment of career planning options for some physicians. These socioeconomic changes have created unique opportunities beyond the traditional arenas of clinical practice and medical management for physicians to leverage their medical degrees and experiences in the business world. This paper presents three case reports of physician executives who have successfully pursued medically related business career options, each following different motivations at various stages of their medical careers. It then discusses the Physicians' Alternative Career Transition (PACT) model developed by the authors to assist other physicians who are considering making transitions into business-related careers. The PACT model is based on four critical steps for practicing physicians to make these transitions successfully: an internal self-evaluation process, an external environmental evaluation process, seeking the best "career match," and securing the career match.  相似文献   
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It is well known that, when sample observations are independent, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve corresponds to the Wilcoxon statistics if the area is calculated by the trapezoidal rule. Correlated ROC curves arise often in medical research and have been studied by various parametric methods. On the basis of the Mann–Whitney U-statistics for clustered data proposed by Rosner and Grove, we construct an average ROC curve and derive nonparametric methods to estimate the area under the average curve for correlated ROC curves obtained from multiple readers. For the more complicated case where, in addition to multiple readers examining results on the same set of individuals, two or more diagnostic tests are involved, we derive analytic methods to compare the areas under correlated average ROC curves for these diagnostic tests. We demonstrate our methods in an example and compare our results with those obtained by other methods. The nonparametric average ROC curve and the analytic methods that we propose are easy to explain and simple to implement.  相似文献   
368.
This is a report on the International Conference on Strategic Management, held at Vanderbilt Graduate School of Management (14–18 May 1973). At the conference, senior academics, businessmen and consultants from fifteen countries met to discuss the problems of implementing strategic planning.  相似文献   
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This paper examines changes to the community life of older people living in three urban areas of England: Bethnal Green, Wolverhampton and Woodford. All three were the subject of classic community studies in the 1940s and 1950s, these providing rich material about the lives of groups such as elderly people. Using this earlier research as a baseline, the paper presents data on how the experience of living in urban neighbourhoods has changed for older people in the intervening years. The article reviews the relationship between elderly people and their neighbours, drawing on quantitative as well as qualitative data. In conclusion, the paper identifies a number of general arguments pointing to the value of a community and locality perspective for understanding the impact of social changes on later life.  相似文献   
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