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Despite underlying regularities in the age profile of migration, there is mounting evidence of cross‐national variations in the ages at which migration occurs. Explanations for these differences have variously been sought by reference to cultural, social, and economic factors, and through analysis of reasons for moving. There is also a growing body of work linking migration events to particular transitions in the life course. We set out a conceptual framework that links contextual factors to the age structure of migration through life‐course transitions that act as proximate determinants of the age at migration. We propose metrics to capture the prevalence, timing, and spread of four key life‐course transitions: education completion, labor force entry, union formation, and first childbearing. We then seek to quantitatively establish the link between these indicators and the age and intensity of internal migration at its peak for a global sample of 27 countries. Correlation and factor analysis reveal substantial diversity in the timing and spread of transitions to adult roles, and show that cross‐national differences in the age profile of migration closely parallel variations in the age structure of the life course for over two‐thirds of countries. Migration age profiles are aligned with transitions to adulthood for both sexes but most strongly among women. 相似文献
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The authors of this note demonstrate that it is not necessarily true that the standardized death-rate of a combined population will lie between the standardized death-rates of its two components. 相似文献
107.
David D. Witt Bernard Davidson Donna L. Sollie George D. Lowe Charles W. Peek 《Sociological spectrum》2013,33(3):191-207
Research has been consistent in documenting the direct negative effect of early marriage on marital stability, while disagreeing over the level of influence of status attainment measures on divorce. However, the discipline has failed to come to consensus on the complexity of these relationships: that early marriage may operate indirectly through mediating variables to increase the likelihood of divorce. The focus of this paper is an analysis of a path model which includes the estimated effects of antecedents of early marriage, early marriage and education on the probability of divorce. Findings using the General Social Surveys support research that suggests that early marriage is the most important variable influencing divorce. Further, little influence of the early marriage measure through education was found. 相似文献
108.
Calculating exact values of the Prokhorov metric for the set of probability distributions on a metric space is a challenging problem. In this paper probability distributions are approximated by finite-support distributions through optimal or quasi-optimal quantization, in such a way that exact calculation of the Prokhorov distance between a distribution and a quantizer can be performed. The exact value of the Prokhorov distance between two quantizers is obtained by solving an optimization problem through the Simplex method. This last value is used to approximate the Prokhorov distance between the two initial distributions, and the accuracy of the approximation is measured. We illustrate the method on various univariate and bivariate probability distributions. Approximation of bivariate standard normal distributions by quasi-optimal quantizers is also considered. 相似文献
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The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve gives a graphical representation of sensitivity and specificity of a prediction model when varying the decision treshold on a diagnostic criterion. A classical test for comparing the overall accuracies for two models -1 and 2- is based on the difference between ROC curves areas - related to its standard error. This test is designed for the situation where ROC curve 1 caps ROC curve 2. Often both curves cross :in this paper, a new test, based on the integrated difference between the curves, is proposed to deal with this situation. In a simulation experiment, the new test was less powerful than the old test for detecting an overall superiority, but much more powerfull against the crossing alternative. 相似文献
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This paper seeks to discover whether the known inaccuracy of informant recall about their communication behavior can be accounted for by experimentally varying the time period over which recall takes place. The experiment took advantage of a new communications medium (computer conferencing) which enabled us to monitor automatically all the interactions involving a subset of the computer network. The experiment itself was administered entirely by the computer, which interviewed informants and recorded their responses. Variations in time period failed to account for much of the inaccuracy, which continues, as in previous experiments at an unacceptably high level. One positive finding did emerge: although the informants did not know with whom they communicated, the informants en masse seemed to know certain broad facts about the communication pattern. All other findings were negative. For example, it is impossible to predict the people an informant claimed to communicate with but did not; and it is impossible to predict who the five people are that an informant forgot to mention that she or he had communication with. Thus, despite their presumed good intentions, our findings here confirm what we have learned from six previous experiments: What people say about their communications bears no resemblance to their behavior. This suggests that other forms of data gathering, based on questions which require that informants recall their behavior, may well be suspect. 相似文献