Dissecting the Conditions of Political Protest. An Exploration of Interaction Effects in the Explanation of Political Protest

This study addresses the conditions for the participation in protest activities. Starting from social psychological value expectancy theory and the theory of collective action, we study the effects of political discontent, perceived political influence (efficacy), norms to participate, identity, and membership in protest encouraging networks (“social incentives”) on protest. This study challenges the common assumption that these factors have additive effects only and provides a detailed analysis of interaction effects. Another contribution is the theoretical derivation of interaction effects. Our empirical analyses refer to the protests in Leipzig (East Germany) in 1989 under communist rule. Two‐way interactions are found between the following pairs of variables: discontent, influence, and norms. “Identity” (i.e., identification with West Germany) only interacts with discontent. Furthermore, identification is a surrogate for discontent: If identification is strong, discontent no longer influences protest. If identification is weak, increasing discontent raises protest.     

Properties of a class of binary ARMA models

We investigate a class of ARMA-type models for stationary binary time series developed in [M. Kanter, Autoregression for discrete processes mod 2, J. Appl. Probabil. 12 (1975), pp. 371–375, E. McKenzie, Extending the correlation structure of exponential autoregressive-moving-average processes, J. Appl. Prob. 18 (1981), pp. 181–189.], which we shall refer to as BinARMA models. This sparsely parameterized model family is even able to deal with negative autocorrelations, which occur in language modelling, for instance. While the autocorrelation structure of the BinAR(p) models has been studied before in [M. Kanter, Autoregression for discrete processes mod 2, J. Appl. Probabil. 12 (1975), pp. 371–375], we shall present new results on the autocorrelation structure of general BinARMA models. These results simplify in the BinMA(q) case, while the known results concerning BinAR(p) models are included as a special case. A real-data example indicates possible fields of application of these models.     

Consistent estimation for discretely observed Markov jump processes with an absorbing state

For a continuous-time Markov process, commonly, only discrete-time observations are available. We analyze multiple observations of a homogeneous Markov jump process with an absorbing state. We establish consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator, as the number of Markov processes increases. To accomplish uniform convergence in the continuous mapping theorem, we use the continuity of the transition probability in the parameters, the compactness of the parameter space and the boundedness of probabilities. We allow for a stochastic time-grid of observation points with different intensities for each observation process. Furthermore, we account for right censoring. The estimate is obtained via the EM algorithm with an E-step given in closed form. In our empirical application of credit rating histories, we fit the model of Weißbach and Mollenhauer (J Korean Stat Soc 40:469–485, 2011) and find marked differences, compared to the continuous-time analysis.     

Didn’t Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe

The realisation rates of short-term childbearing intentions are known to be consistently lower in post-socialist countries than in the rest of Europe. However, the East–West differences in the outcomes of intentions to postpone or forego (further) childbearing have not been previously examined. We employ two panel waves of the Generations and Gender Survey in six countries (three from Eastern and three from Western Europe), and, based on the short- and long-term fertility intentions expressed by respondents at the first survey wave, we classify the births occurring between two waves as intended, sooner-than-intended, or unintended. We find that in our study population of non-teenage respondents who had the same partner at both survey waves and a child between the two survey waves, between around 10% (Western European countries) and 30% (Eastern European countries) experienced an unintended or a sooner-than-intended birth. The East–West divide is largely driven by the share of unintended parents which is clearly higher in the post-socialist countries. However, the geographical pattern fades away once we control for the anticipated costs of having a child. Our study gives insight into East–West differences in attitudes to childbearing and into how they affect reproductive behaviour. It also offers methodological improvements of cross-national panel surveys designed to examine childbearing intentions that would allow for a more accurate assessment of childbearing intendedness.     

Campaigning in the fourth age of political communication. A multi-method study on the use of Facebook by German and Austrian parties in the 2013 national election campaigns

Starting from the contribution to the discussion on a fourth age of political communication, here we argue that, as a consequence of how the Web 2.0 has changed political campaigns, the theoretical time-bound three-phase models of political campaigning must be reconsidered. We propose four ideal campaign types based on their ideal-typical target audience: partisan-, mass-, target group- and individual-centered campaigns. In reality, each campaign combines elements of all types. To examine this mixture empirically, we apply a most similar systems design and investigate five German and six Austrian parties’ use of Facebook in the 2013 national election campaigns. On the basis of face-to-face interviews with the campaign managers and a quantitative content analysis of the respective parties’ Facebook pages, we analyze how parties used Facebook as a campaigning tool to inform, interact with, and mobilize voters, as well as which target audiences they addressed. We find that, although the campaign managers declare Facebook their most important Web 2.0 campaigning tool, the German and Austrian parties did not make use of Facebook’s interactive and mobilizing potential, rather relying on mass-centered information, possibly due to the framework conditions in both countries. Based on our findings, we conclude that the role of context for election campaigning should be discussed more carefully.     

Der soziale Hintergrund von Sprachwahlen in Belarus

This paper analyzes the language behavior in the bilingual society of Belarus. Therefore we look at language usage in dependence of individual values. The development of those values is considered under a macro- and micro sociological perspective. The theoretical approach examines language behavior in consequence of politically created language structures on the one hand and in consequence of integration in social interaction structures on the other hand. Hence a special imprint of cultural identity arises, which is expressed by language behavior. This approach is used for the examination of language behavior in Belarus. The influence of corresponding socioeconomic and cultural indicators of language usage is estimated by a multinomial logit model.     

黄颡鱼温和气单胞菌的分离鉴定与药敏试验

从患病黄颡鱼皮肤溃烂处及肝脏组织分离到SX -1菌株,经人工感染试验确认是致病菌.通过形态特征,培养特性,生理生化反应和脂肪酸含量,鉴定SX -1菌株为温和气单胞菌.药敏试验表明:该菌对氯霉素、氟哌酸、阿米卡星、庆大霉素敏感.     

Research‐based teacher education for multicultural contexts

Graduate programs in education face the challenge of preparing teachers and specialists in education to work with English Language Learners (ELLs). Programs must be culturally responsive, while at the same time respecting state and federal standards for scientifically based practice according to best evidence. The focus of the present study is a graduate program in education that sought to prepare graduate students to address the needs of ELL students. Among the articulated goals of the program grant were that teachers enrolled would be able to: (1) use effective English for Speakers of Other Languages and bilingual educational strategies and methods; (2) use findings from testing, assessment and research functionally; and (3) promote multilingualism, and, in a broader sense, respect and equitable treatment of the heritages of home languages. The extent to which graduates of the master’s program who were working as teachers and administrators at the time of the study were able to make culturally competent connections with ELL students and to establish a repertoire of scientific evidence, based on research findings that they could then use to support their teaching theory and practice, is discussed. Findings reflecting the responses of 57 graduates of the program were as follows: (a) the training provided by the master’s program was rated as more useful than the in‐service provided by the state because its emphasis on research allowed graduates to judge the merits of proposed educational reforms and to clarify their own pedagogy; (b) the ability to cite research reports enabled graduates to be heard by colleagues and to depoliticize discussions regarding curricular reforms; (c) in developing their ‘communities of practice’, graduates made connections with others who had been trained in the use of scientific research in education. The study illustrates how a graduate education program focused on transformation and the encouragement of home language use can prepare teachers to work effectively in a political context of ‘evidence‐based practice’.