农村基础教育培养新型农民的适应性改革

培养新型农民是农村基础教育适应新农村建设需要的必然要求，农村基础教育只有树立服务农村经济社会发展的目标，切实转变教育教学理念，提高教育质量，形成自身办学特色，才能在提高新一代农村劳动者的素质、推进新农村建设中发挥独特的作用。     

The effects of propensity score weighting on attrition biases in attitudinal,behavioral, and socio-demographic variables in a short-term web-based panel survey

Propensity score weighting often is used to correct for attrition biases in panel surveys. While methodological literature exists on the logic of propensity score weighting and its practical applications, an in-depth discussion is lacking on the effects of using this weighting to correct for attrition biases in attitudinal, behavioral, and socio-demographic variables. By applying a split panel design, we assessed the effects of weighting on attrition biases in 48 attitudinal, 38 behavioral, and 27 socio-demographic variables. Our findings suggest – while acknowledging the estimate-specific nature of bias – first, that biases vary across these types of variables and second, that the effects of propensity score weighting are not homogeneous across the types. Accordingly, a sole reliance on socio-demographics to evaluate attrition in the present panel survey would have resulted in an underestimation of the biases of attitudinal variables and an overestimation of the ability of weighting to cure the negative effects of attrition in behavioral variables.     

Europe’s wealthy people have to rescue the continent

<正>The social gap in almost every country is increasing.Not even since the financial crisis in 2008 , there is the question of how to counteract this development.In times of facing the woes of the European sovereign debt     

Thinning operations for modeling time series of counts—a survey

The analysis of time series of counts is an emerging field of science. To obtain an ARMA-like autocorrelation structure, many models make use of thinning operations to adapt the ARMA recursion to the integer-valued case. Most popular among these probabilistic operations is the concept of binomial thinning, leading to the class of INARMA models. These models are proved to be useful, especially for processes of Poisson counts, but may lead to difficulties in the case of different count distributions. Therefore, several alternative thinning concepts have been developed. This article reviews such thinning operations and shows how they are successfully applied to define integer-valued ARMA models.     

Optimal design for the Bradley–Terry paired comparison model

Paired comparisons are a popular tool for questionnaires in psychological marketing research. The quality of the statistical analysis of the responses heavily depends on the design, i.e. the choice of the alternatives in the comparisons. In this paper we show that the structure of locally optimal designs changes substantially with the parameters in the underlying utility. This fact is illustrated by elementary examples, where the optimal designs can be completely characterized. As an alternative maximin efficient designs are proposed which perform well for all parameter settings. Research supported by grant Ho 1286 of the German Research Council (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft).     

Das Eignungsfeststellungsverfahren für angehende Hauptfachstudierende der Soziologie

This article presents preliminary experience with a selection procedure for the diploma study course in sociology at the LMU Munich, which was first implemented in the winter term 2004/05. Furthermore, it examines the consequences of this procedure. The selection procedure, which is limited in time, was established due to high discontinuation rates and a remarkable congestion of the scientific personnel who are particularly involved in the foundation courses. Judicial fundament of the procedure is an “experimental clause” in the Bavarian University Act. First of all we point out that the number of newly registered undergraduates remarkably declined. Even the total number of applicants is lower than in the years before the initiation of the selection procedure. Secondly, we consider the dwindling during the process of the selection procedure. Contrary to some apprehensions it is obvious that applicants with a good university-entrance diploma do not choose possible alternatives, but still consider the diploma study course in sociology. Concerning the overall evaluation of the selection procedure’s consequences our results show thirdly, that the procedure is highly accepted by all parties concerned and that it therefore has to be regarded as an efficient solution to lower the discontinuation rates as well as to cope with the capacity overload.     

生态文明建设下的河北省外商直接投资的环境效应分析

河北省污染物排放量的变化不是外商直接投资变化的格兰杰(Granger)原因,但是,外商直接投资在一定水平上影响了河北省的环境质量.同时,由工业"三废"所表示的环境污染指数与实际利用外商直接投资之间呈现倒u型曲线,特别是近年来,实现可持续发展这一科学发展观的确立,严格的环境评价,会促使外商直接投资的技术扩散效应不断发挥,使之今后在改善投资地区生态环境质量方面逐步发挥作用.     

Teamarbeit und Freiwilliges Arbeitsengagement

In this contribution organizational spontaneity and pro-social organizational behaviour are put into correlation with team work. Müller and Bierhoff (1994) have devised a model which starts out from a one-dimensional influence of the work group — obvious by a positive mood at work — on organizational spontaneity. This model is supplemented by a reciprocal model which also postulates a re-correlation between organizational spontaneity and team work with its components of effectiveness, cohesion, diversity and trust.