Cognition and uncertainty

In the first part, we try to give a representation of the process by which man endeavours to grasp uncertainty. We propose a backward exploration which we will modelize through an influence diagram and then we can draw a few conclusions from that representation for the axiomatics of Decision.In the second part, we deal with the processing of the information formatted in such a way, regarding both its temporal complexity and its elective complexity.The first part as the second one dealing with representation and the consequences for information processing of uncertainty cognition lead to a severe criticism of the expected utility hypothesis.To conclude, we suggest a few remarks on expert systems of decision aid under uncertainty.     

A Nonparametric Test for Granger Causality in Distribution With Application to Financial Contagion

This article introduces a kernel-based nonparametric inferential procedure to test for Granger causality in distribution. This test is a multivariate extension of the kernel-based Granger causality test in tail event. The main advantage of this test is its ability to examine a large number of lags, with higher-order lags discounted. In addition, our test is highly flexible because it can be used to identify Granger causality in specific regions on the distribution supports, such as the center or tails. We prove that the test converges asymptotically to a standard Gaussian distribution under the null hypothesis and thus is free of parameter estimation uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the excellent small sample size and power properties of the test. This new test is applied to a set of European stock markets to analyze spillovers during the recent European crisis and to distinguish contagion from interdependence effects.     

A generalized linear model approach to seasonal aspects of wind speed modeling

The aim of the article is to identify the intraday seasonality in a wind speed time series. Following the traditional approach, the marginal probability law is Weibull and, consequently, we consider seasonal Weibull law. A new estimation and decision procedure to estimate the seasonal Weibull law intraday scale parameter is presented. We will also give statistical decision-making tools to discard or not the trend parameter and to validate the seasonal model.     

Political influence in multi-choice institutions: cyclicity,anonymity, and transitivity

We study political influence in institutions where each member chooses a level of support for a collective goal. These individual choices determine the degree to which the goal is reached. Influence is assessed by newly defined binary relations, each of which ranks members on the basis of their relative performance at a corresponding level of participation. For institutions with three options (e.g., voting games in which each voter may vote “yes”, “abstain”, or vote “no”), we obtain three influence relations, and show that their strict components may be cyclic. This latter property describes a “paradox of power” which contrasts with the transitivity of the unique influence relation of binary voting games. Weak conditions of anonymity suffice for each of these relations to be transitive. We also obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for each of these relations to be complete. Further, we characterize institutions in which the rankings induced by these relations, and the Banzhaf–Coleman and Shapley–Shubik power indices coincide. We argue that extending the influence relations to firms would be useful in efficiently assigning workers to different units of production. Finally, we provide applications to various forms of political and economic organizations.     

Gambling Problems Among Community Cocaine Users

Cocaine use is highly prevalent and a major public health problem. While some studies have reported frequent comorbidity problems among cocaine users, few studies have included evaluation of gambling problems. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of gambling problems and compare those who were at-risk gamblers with non-problem gamblers in terms of mental health problems, substance use problems, and some risk factors (i.e. family antecedents, erroneous perceptions and coping strategies) among individuals who smoke or inject cocaine. A total of 424 smoked or injected cocaine users recruited through community-based programs in Montreal (Quebec) completed the questionnaire, including the Canadian Pathological Gambling Index, the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, the CAGE, and the Severity Dependence Scale. Of the sample, 18.4 % were considered at-risk gamblers, of whom 7.8 % had problems gambling and 10.6 % were moderate-risk gamblers. The at-risk group was more likely to have experienced a recent phobic disorder and alcohol problems than the non-problem group. A multivariate analysis showed that, compared to those who were non-problem gamblers, the at-risk ones were more likely to have lost a large sum of money when they first started gambling, believed that their luck would turn, and gambled in reaction to painful life events. These results indicate the need to include routines for screening to identify gambling problem among cocaine users.     

Family Financial Management and Individual Deprivation

A core assumption in conventional poverty measurement is that household members share equally in total household income. This paper focuses on heterosexual couple households and asks to what extent male and female partners may derive different benefits from total couple resources. Drawing on the 2010 Irish Survey on Income and Living Conditions module, we examined the couple financial regime, by which we mean which partners received income, whether the income was from work, the extent to which income was contributed for the benefit of other household members and responsibility for decision-making. We explored whether the couple’s financial regime was associated with different living standard outcomes for the partners. Among the findings was the beneficial impact of having income from work and of shared responsibility for decision-making. The paper concludes by pointing to some implications for our understanding of power and bargaining in couples.     

Economic Stress and the Great Recession in Ireland: Polarization,Individualization or ‘Middle Class Squeeze’?

Following an unprecedented boom, since 2008 Ireland has experienced a severe economic and labour market crisis. Considerable debate persists as to where the heaviest burden of the recession has fallen. Conventional measures of relative income poverty and inequality have a limited capacity to capture the impact of the recession in terms of social exclusion. This is exacerbated by a dramatic increase in the scale of debt problems including significant negative equity issues. Our analysis provides no evidence for individualization or class polarization of risk. Instead, while economic stress level is highly stratified in class terms in both boom and bust periods, the changing impact of class is highly contingent on life course stage. An income based classification showed that the affluent income class saw its advantage relative to the income poor class decline at the earliest stage of the life-course and remain stable across the rest of the life course. At the other end of the hierarchy, the income poor class experienced a relative improvement in their situation in the earlier life-course phase and no significant change at the later stages. For the remaining income classes, life-course stage was even more important. At the earliest stage the precarious class experienced some improvement in its situation while the outcomes for the middle classes remain unchanged. In the mid-life course the precarious and lower middle classes experienced disproportionate increases in their stress levels while at the later stage it is the combined middle classes that lost out. Additional effects over time relating to social class are restricted to the deteriorating situation of the petit bourgeoisie at the middle stage of the life-course. The pattern is clearly a good deal more complex than that suggested by conventional notions of ‘middle class squeeze’ and points to the distinctive challenges relating to welfare and taxation policy faced by governments in the Great Recession.     

Approximation of IMSE-optimal Designs via Quadrature Rules and Spectral Decomposition

We address the problem of computing integrated mean-squared error (IMSE) optimal designs for interpolation of random fields with known mean and covariance. We assume that the mean squared error is integrated through a discrete measure and restrict the design space to its support. We show that the IMSE and its approximation by spectral truncation can be easily evaluated, which makes their global minimization affordable. Numerical experiments are carried out that illustrate the effectiveness of the approach.