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41.
In an online prediction context, the authors introduce a new class of mongrel criteria that allow for the weighing of candidate models and the combination of their predictions based both on model‐based and empirical measures of their performance. They present simulation results which show that model averaging using the mongrel‐derived weights leads, in small samples, to predictions that are more accurate than that obtained by Bayesian weight updating, provided that none of the candidate models is too distant from the data generator. 相似文献
42.
Bertrand Desjardins 《Population studies》2013,67(1):165-169
Age-at-marriage estimates from family reconstitutions may be biased downward when they are based only on marriages of people who continue to live in their parish of birth, because when the probability of migrating rises with age, younger people are selected in preference to older ones. Micro-simulations show that the bias can have dramatic effects. In this paper French-Canadian data are used to investigate the importance of the bias and to verify empirically the micro-simulation results. Although a high proportion of people moved between birth and marriage, the bias had virtually no effect, given the specific characteristics of the migrations. If one cannot avoid discussing the timing of migration before marriage, when measuring age at first marriage using only data on “stayers”, it is just possible that in most settings, it is the same for those who lived in their parish of birth, and those who had moved. 相似文献
43.
We present publication data for recent graduates of 50 economics Ph.D. programs. The data show that publishing output is highly concentrated among graduates of the top programs; the top three programs, for example, generate more than 25% of aggregate publishing output in our sample. We use the data to construct a set of program rankings based on both per capita and aggregate graduate publication and a comparison of faculty performance to graduate performance. The graduate/faculty comparison reveals that programs may be identical in the output of their faculties but starkly different in the output of their graduates. 相似文献
44.
In this paper we seek to establish if earlier findings relating to the relationship between income poverty persistence and deprivation persistence could be due to a failure to take measurement error into account. To address this question, we apply a model of dynamics incorporating structural and error components. Our analysis shows a general similarity between latent poverty and deprivation dynamics. In both cases we substantially over-estimate the probability of exiting from poverty or deprivation. We observe a striking similarity across dimensions for both observed and latent outcomes. In both cases levels of poverty and deprivation persistence are higher for the latent case. However, there is no evidence that earlier results relating to the differences in the determinants of poverty and deprivation persistence are a consequence of differential patterns of reliability. Taking measurement error into account seems more likely to accentuate rather than diminish the contrasts highlighted by earlier research. Since longitudinal differences relating to poverty and deprivation cannot be accounted for by measurement error, it seems that we must accept that we are confronted with issues relating to validity rather than reliability. Even where we measure these dimensions over reasonable periods of time and allow for measurement error, they continue to tap relatively distinct phenomenon. Thus, if measures of persistent poverty are to constitute an important component of EU social indicators, a strong case can be made for including parallel measures of deprivation persistence and continuing to explore the relationship between them. 相似文献
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46.
This study evaluates the 2008-2009 "Lose your Excuse" public service advertising (PSA) campaign on energy efficiency targeting 8- to 12-year-olds, intended to increase knowledge, foster proactive attitudes, and change energy usage behaviors. Baseline and two follow-up surveys were conducted with online samples representative of the national population of households with kids with online access. Almost half (47%) of the tweens recognized at least one ad from the campaign. Ad recognition was positively associated with knowledge, proactive attitudes, and energy-saving behavior. Propensity score analysis confirmed a small but measurable and statistically significant effect on energy-saving behavior. The discussion section compares these results to public health campaigns in terms of ghost awareness, reach, and effect size. 相似文献
47.
The authors examined whether resistance training has an effect on working memory span. Participants included 210 community-residing older adults with at least one disability from the Strong for Life program, a randomized controlled trial that examined the effects of home-based resistance exercise. Memory was assessed with the WAIS backward digit span at baseline and 3 and 6 months into the intervention. Although there were no differences between the experimental treatment and control groups in average levels of memory change, within the treatment group change in resistance level during the intervention was a significant predictor of memory change, controlling for age, education, sex, and disability level. The results suggest that strength training can benefit memory among older adults, especially when using higher resistance levels. 相似文献
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49.
Bertrand K Dufour M Wright J Lasnier B 《Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming》2008,24(3):393-409
The study of the effectiveness of treatment for pathological gambling constitutes a field that is still largely unexplored.
To date, the models assessed primarily target the individual and include little or no involvement of the family circle. Yet,
the deleterious effects of gambling on loved ones and especially spouses are well recognized. Further, the addition of a couple
modality to individual treatment has been shown to be effective on many levels in the treatment of substances use disorders. This article therefore proposes a critical review of (1) the literature providing a better understanding of the complex
interactions between the couple relationship and pathological gambling, (2) studies on the effects of couple therapies on
gamblers and their partners. We then present the therapeutic model developed by our team of clinician-researchers in collaboration
with actors from Québec clinical settings: Adapted Couple Therapy (ACT) for pathological gamblers. In the Québec context, this model will serve as a complement to an individual cognitive-behavioral treatment model that
has been proven effective and is employed throughout the Canadian province. The assessment of couple therapies could reveal
avenues of solutions to better assist pathological gamblers who tend to drop-out of treatment and relapse. 相似文献
50.
In this paper, we argue that replacing the expectation of the loss in statistical decision theory with the median of the loss leads to a viable and useful alternative to conventional risk minimization particularly because it can be used with heavy tailed distributions. We investigate three possible definitions for such medloss estimators and derive examples of them in several standard settings. We argue that the medloss definition based on the posterior distribution is better than the other two definitions that do not permit optimization over large classes of estimators. We argue that median loss minimizing estimates often yield improved performance, have resistance to outliers as high as the usual robust estimates, and are resistant to the specific loss used to form them. In simulations with the posterior medloss formulation, we show how the estimates can be obtained numerically and that they can have better robustness properties than estimates derived from risk minimization. 相似文献