A Micro-Level Event-Centered Approach to Investigating Armed Conflict and Population Responses

In this article, we construct and test a micro-level event-centered approach to the study of armed conflict and behavioral responses in the general population. Event-centered approaches have been successfully used in the macro-political study of armed conflict but have not yet been adopted in micro-behavioral studies. The micro-level event-centered approach that we advocate here includes decomposition of a conflict into discrete political and violent events, examination of the mechanisms through which they affect behavior, and consideration of differential risks within the population. We focus on two mechanisms: instability and threat of harm. We test this approach empirically in the context of the recent decade-long armed conflict in Nepal, using detailed measurements of conflict-related events and a longitudinal study of first migration, first marriage, and first contraceptive use. Results demonstrate that different conflict-related events independently shaped migration, marriage, and childbearing and that they can simultaneously influence behaviors in opposing directions. We find that violent events increased migration, but political events slowed migration. Both violent and political events increased marriage and contraceptive use net of migration. Overall, this micro-level event-centered approach yields a significant advance for the study of how armed conflict affects civilian behavioral responses.     

Sense of Place and Health in Hamilton, Ontario: A Case Study

The concept of sense of place has received considerable attention by social scientists in recent years. Research has indicated that a person's sense of place is influenced by a number of factors including the built environment, socio-economic status (SES), well-being and health. Relatively few studies have examined sense of place at the neighbourhood level, particularly among communities exhibiting different levels of SES. This article investigates sense of place among three neighbourhood groups in Hamilton, Ontario representing areas of low, mixed and high SES. It analyses data from a 16-point sense of place scale derived from the Hamilton Household Quality of Life Survey carried out in 2010-2011 among 1,002 respondents. The paper found that sense of place was highest among residents of the high SES neighbourhood group as well as among home owners, people residing in single-detached homes, retired residents and those living in their neighbourhood for more than 10?years. From a health perspective, the paper found that a strong association existed between sense of place and self-perceived mental health across the three neighbourhood groups. Furthermore, by way of regression modeling, the paper examined the factors influencing health-related sense of place. Among the sample of respondents, a strong connection was found between housing, particularly home ownership, and high levels of health-related sense of place.     

Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.     

Structural Change and the Aggregate Poverty Rate

This paper measures the extent to which recent increases in the aggregate poverty rate are attributable to the changing distribution of employment across industries. We decompose the total poverty rate change over the 1976-1983 period into components attributable to changes in employment shares and changes in the incidence of poverty within industries. Our results show that the poverty rate increase resulted primarily from the decline in employment rates in general and from increases in the incidence of poverty within all industries, rather than from the shift of employment opportunities between sectors. The growth of service sector employment in particular has not contributed to the increased incidence of poverty in the United States.     

ITERATIVE ANALYSIS OF GENERALIZED LATTICE DESIGNS

Generalized lattice designs are defined. They include as special cases the square and rectangular lattice designs, and the α-designs defined by Patterson and Williams (1976). An iterative procedure is given for the combined estimation of variety effects in generalized lattice designs with optimal or near optimal efficiency factors. This procedure, together with an approximate variance matrix, enables the analysis of efficient generalized lattice designs to be carried out on mini computers.     

REGIONAL ECONOMIC-DEMOGRAPHIC MODELLING AND PROJECTION: REVIEW OF AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

The state-of-the-art in economic-demographic modelling of regional populations was presented at the International Conference on Forecasting Regional Population Change and its Economic Determinants and Consequences held at Airlie House, Virginia, U.S.A. over May 26 to 29, 1982. This review of papers presented at the Conference concludes that such modelling is at an early stage of development and currently provides only an adjunct to more conventional methods of regional forecasting. Given expected future improvements in the theory, data and techniques of economic-demographic modelling, such models could soon provide a worthwhile alternative.