Computing Probabilities of Type I Error and Type II Error of Sequential Bayesian Procedures for Testing One-Sided Hypotheses

In this article, it is shown how to compute, in an approximated way, probabilities of Type I error and Type II error of sequential Bayesian procedures for testing one-sided null hypotheses. First, some theoretical results are obtained, and then an algorithm is developed for applying these results. The prior predictive density plays a central role in this study.     

ON GENDER GAPS AND SELF‐FULFILLING EXPECTATIONS: ALTERNATIVE IMPLICATIONS OF PAID‐FOR TRAINING

This paper presents a model of self‐fulfilling expectations by firms and households which generates multiplicity of equilibria in pay and housework time allocation for ex‐ante identical spouses. Multiplicity arises from statistical discrimination exerted by firms in the provision of paid‐for training to workers, rather than from incentive problems in the labor market. Employers' beliefs about differences in spouses' reactions to housework shocks lead to symmetric (ungendered) and asymmetric (gendered) equilibria. We find that: (1) the ungendered equilibrium tends to prevail as aggregate productivity in the economy increases (regardless of the generosity of family aid policies), (2) the ungendered equilibrium could yield higher welfare under some scenarios, and (3) gender‐neutral job subsidies are more effective that gender‐targeted ones in removing the gendered equilibrium. (JEL J16, J70, J71)     

A Probabilistic Perspective on Re-Identifiability

A quasi-identifier is a set of attributes that can be used to re-identify entries in anonymized data sets. A group of individuals is considered about whom quasi-identifying numerical information is disclosed such as date of birth, age, weight, and height. The fraction of individuals is determined whose information is unique in that group and hence is identifiable unambiguously. Nonuniformity can be captured well by a single number, the Kullback-Leibler distance. For example sets of real microdata, given approximations based on Kullback-Leibler distances are accurate. Second, the effect of disclosing more specific or less specific information is analyzed experimentally. Third, the effect of correlation between numerical attributes is measured. A formula gives the re-identifiability level. The approximations are validated using publicly available demographic data sets.     

CRITIQUE DE LA THEORIE LIBERALE DU DEVELOPPEMENT

To this day, the development programs proposed for underdeveloped countries have met with little success because the economic analysis which encompasses them takes into account only the technique and data of macro-economics and ignores social relations. It is this weakness of the analysis that caused Western experts to be unaware of the effects of imperialism on the Third World, the evolution particular to underdeveloped countries that A.G. Frank called "development of underdevelopment." This evolution, characterized by the exploitation of Third World resources in the interests of the West, must be thwarted by a firmer, more independent stand on the part of the underdeveloped countries.
Les programmes de développement proposés aux pays sous-développés ont connu peu de succès jusqu'à ce jour. C'est que l'analyse économiste qui les sous-tend ne tient compte que de la technique et des données macro-économiques, ignorant ainsi les rapports sociaux. C'est la faiblesse de l'analyse qui a mené les experts occidentaux à ignorer les effets de l'impérialisme sur le Tiers-Monde, cette évolution spécifique des pays sous-développés que A.G. Frank a appelée « développement du sous-développement >>. Cette évolution, caractérisée par l'exploitation des ressources du Tiers-Monde selon les intérêts de l'Occident, doit être contrecarrée par une prise de position plus ferme et plus indépendante de la part des pays sous-développés.     

WHY CORPORATIONS INSURE

Corporations insure to reduce the shirking-information problem of joint production. Insurance encourages specialization in ownership, increasing the returns to monitoring and lowering shareholders' demand for a more diversified portfolio; it enhances the credibility of specific capital as a performance bond; and it lowers the cost to shareholders of compensating other members of the team for investing in firm-specific assets. Tax and other factors may further encourage individual corporations to insure.     

PEER EFFECTS IN HIGHER EDUCATION: DOES THE FIELD OF STUDY MATTER?

Does the peer effect vary with the field of study? Using data from a middle‐sized public university located in southern Italy and exploiting the random assignment of first‐year students to college accommodation, we find that roommate peer effects for freshmen enrolled in the hard sciences are positive and significantly larger than for freshmen enrolled in the humanities and social sciences. We present a simple theoretical model which suggests that the uncovered differences between fields in the size of the peer effect could plausibly be generated by between‐field variation in labor market returns, which affect optimal student effort. (JEL I21, Z13, J24)     

Application of TOC/OPT rules in a medium sized shop

Abstract

Abstract. Theory of constraints (TOC) and optimized production technology (OPT) are frequently presented as the better options for production control systems. Despite this enthusiasm, there is very little literature on how these principles can be implemented in practice without having to resort to the expensive proprietary software. In this paper we present a case study in which the OPT/TOC ideas were implemented without using the software. Management's major concern was reduction of work in process and increased delivery performance. It was decided to test whether the ideas of OPT/TOC were applicable in this environment and more importantly to which extent these two performance measures could be improved. The paper reports on the methodology used to test the OPT/TOC ideas in this shop and presents some early results of improvement, as well as some new problems which arose due to the new approach.