Discount-neutral utility models for denumerable time streams

This paper formulates and axiomatizes utility models for denumerable time streams that make no commitment in regard to discounting future outcomes. The models address decision under certainty and decision under risk. Independence assumptions in both contexts lead to additive or multiplicative utilities over time periods that allow unambiguous comparisons of the relative importance of different periods. The models accommodate all patterns of future valuation. This discount-neutral feature is attained by restricting preference comparisons to outcome streams or probability distributions on outcome streams that differ in at most a finite number of periods.     

A cautionary tale

Anthony Edwards wrote this cautionary tale for genetics students at Stanford University whom he was teaching in 1965. It has not previously been published. "Its appearance now is due to my having been asked whether a copy from the papers of the Nobel Laureate Joshua Lederberg might be put on the web by the US National Library of Medicine", he says. "Lederberg was Professor of Genetics at Stanford at the time and I must have given him a copy. More remarkably, he thought it worth keeping." It concerns what is known as Simpson's paradox.     

“情景伦理”行不通

企业的商业伦理应该在全球范围内保持一致，还是应该根据具体的经营环境进行调整呢？许多人认为，企业的伦理准则应该与经营地的实际情况相契合，推崇“情境伦理”，即根据复杂多变的实际环境，灵活采取相应的实用性伦理准则。     

Planning in a state of turbulence

This paper is concerned with an exploration of the role of the long range planner, whether in the private or public sector of the economy, and the impact made upon the processes of his work by government's increasing propensity to manipulate the economy. The authors' researches over the last 2 years into the comparative nature of planning processes in the U.K. economy have made it abundantly clear to them that planners are increasingly concerned at the dangerous potential of such impact upon their forecasting procedures. The emphasis here will rest upon the planner in private enterprises, although the authors' work in both local government and the nationalized enterprises suggest that the problem is of equal importance in these sectors.The authors consider first the past nature of the search processes in long range planning and the context of such attempts to narrow down the range of variables that form the enterprise's perception of its future. Secondly, they examine the emerging discontinuity and the changing role of government, with particular reference to indicative planning concepts. Then they introduce some of the findings of a recent survey of attitudes towards long range planning in the construction industry of the U.K., a sector vitally influenced by turbulence in the economy and with particular interest in government's ideas of macro-planning. Finally Edwards and Harris examine the implications to government and to planners of their findings.     

Statisticians in stained glass houses

Statistics and stained glass may seem an odd combination, but the windows of Gonville & Caius College, Cambridge, say otherwise. Anthony Edwards explains.     

RFID‐Enabled Visibility and Retail Inventory Record Inaccuracy: Experiments in the Field

Accurate inventory records are key to effective store execution, affecting forecasting, ordering, and replenishment. Prior empirical research, however, shows that retailer inventory records are inherently inaccurate. Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) enables visibility into the movement of inventories in the supply chain. Using two different field experiments, the current research investigates the effectiveness of this visibility in reducing retail store inventory record inaccuracy (IRI). Study 1 used an interrupted time‐series design and involved daily physical counts of all products in one category in 13 stores (8 treatments and 5 controls) of a major global retailer over 23 weeks. Results indicate a significant decrease in IRI of approximately 26% due to RFID‐enabled visibility. Using an untreated control group design with pre‐test and post‐test, Study 2 expands the number of categories to five and the number of stores to 62 (31 treatment and 31 control stores). Results show that the effectiveness of RFID in reducing IRI varies by category (ranging from no statistically significant improvement to 81%). Results also suggest that RFID ameliorates the effects of known determinants of IRI and provide the key insight that the technology is most effective for product categories characterized by these determinants.