Tree‐Based Logistic Regression Approach for Work Zone Casualty Risk Assessment

This study presents a tree‐based logistic regression approach to assessing work zone casualty risk, which is defined as the probability of a vehicle occupant being killed or injured in a work zone crash. First, a decision tree approach is employed to determine the tree structure and interacting factors. Based on the Michigan M‐94I‐94I‐94BLI‐94BR highway work zone crash data, an optimal tree comprising four leaf nodes is first determined and the interacting factors are found to be airbag, occupant identity (i.e., driver, passenger), and gender. The data are then split into four groups according to the tree structure. Finally, the logistic regression analysis is separately conducted for each group. The results show that the proposed approach outperforms the pure decision tree model because the former has the capability of examining the marginal effects of risk factors. Compared with the pure logistic regression method, the proposed approach avoids the variable interaction effects so that it significantly improves the prediction accuracy.     

Sizing Up a Superstorm: Exploring the Role of Recalled Experience and Attribution of Responsibility in Judgments of Future Hurricane Risk

Research suggests that hurricane‐related risk perception is a critical predictor of behavioral response, such as evacuation. Less is known, however, about the precursors of these subjective risk judgments, especially when time has elapsed from a focal event. Drawing broadly from the risk communication, social psychology, and natural hazards literature, and specifically from concepts adapted from the risk information seeking and processing model and the protective action decision model, we examine how individuals’ distant recollections, including attribution of responsibility for the effects of a storm, attitude toward relevant information, and past hurricane experience, relate to risk judgment for a future, similar event. The present study reports on a survey involving U.S. residents in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York (n = 619) impacted by Hurricane Sandy. While some results confirm past findings, such as that hurricane experience increases risk judgment, others suggest additional complexity, such as how various types of experience (e.g., having evacuated vs. having experienced losses) may heighten or attenuate individual‐level judgments of responsibility. We suggest avenues for future research, as well as implications for federal agencies involved in severe weather/natural hazard forecasting and communication with public audiences.     

An unexpected meeting of four seemingly unrelated problems: graph testing, DNA complex screening, superimposed codes and secure key distribution

This paper discusses the relation among four problems: graph testing, DNA complex screening, superimposed codes and secure key distribution. We prove a surprising equivalence relation among these four problems, and use this equivalence to improve current results on graph testing. In the rest of this paper, we give a lower bound for the minimum number of tests on DNA complex screening model. The first and second author would like to dedicate this paper to professor Frank K. Hwang on the occasion of his 65th birthday. This research is partially supported by Republic of China, National Science Council grant NSC 92-2115-M-009-014.     

Corporate social responsibility reporting and firm performance: evidence from China

A series of product safety and child labor scandals in the mid-2000s aroused global concerns over business ethics and corporate social responsibility (CSR) in China. The general public expects companies to be socially responsible and to look beyond the maximizing of profits. In this study, we examine the relationship between the issuance of CSR reports and performance, in terms of accounting income, market return, and growth by firms listed in China in 2008–2009. We find that the historical performance of firms has significant and positive effects on the issuance of standalone CSR reports. There is also a positive correlation between current CSR disclosures and subsequent performance. Finally, we find that corporate donations are positively associated with improved performance in the following year. Our results support the view that CSR is a useful business strategy even in a developing country such as China. We call for government authorities in emerging markets to advocate CSR practices and for the market participants to change their perception of and attitude towards CSR.     

Evaluation of statistical protocols for quality control of ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes

Summary.  The process of quality control of micrometeorological and carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux data can be subjective and may lack repeatability, which would undermine the results of many studies. Multivariate statistical methods and time series analysis were used together and independently to detect and replace outliers in CO₂ flux data derived from a Bowen ratio energy balance system. The results were compared with those produced by five experts who applied the current and potentially subjective protocol. All protocols were tested on the same set of three 5-day periods, when measurements were conducted in an abandoned agricultural field. The concordance of the protocols was evaluated by using the experts' opinion (mean ± 1.96 standard deviations) as a reference interval (the Bland–Altman method). Analysing the 15 days together, the statistical protocol that combined multivariate distance, multiple linear regression and time series analysis showed a concordance of 93% on a 20-min flux basis and 87% on a daily basis (only 2 days fell outside the reference interval), and the overall flux differed only by 1.7% (3.2 g CO₂ m⁻²). An automated version of this or a similar statistical protocol could be used as a standard way of filling gaps and processing data from Bowen ratio energy balance and other techniques (e.g. eddy covariance). This would enforce objectivity in comparisons of CO₂ flux data that are generated by different research groups and streamline the protocols for quality control.     

Determining an Optimal Penetration Among Weighted Regions in Two and Three Dimensions

We present efficient algorithms for solving the problem of computing an optimal penetration (a ray or a semi-ray) among weighted regions in 2-D and 3-D spaces. This problem finds applications in several areas, such as radiation therapy, geological exploration, and environmental engineering. Our algorithms are based on a combination of geometric techniques and optimization methods. Our geometric analysis shows that the d-D (d = 2, 3) optimal penetration problem can be reduced to solving O(n ^2(d–1)) instances of certain special types of non-linear optimization problems, where n is the total number of vertices of the regions. We also give implementation results of our 2-D algorithms.