Assesssing Cohort Birth Expectations Data from the Current Population Survey, 1971–1981

Data from the fertility supplements to the Current Population Survey from 1971 to 1981 indicate that in the aggregate, the lifetime birth expectations of married women 18 to 39 years old in 1971 will closely approximate their completed cohort fertility. During this period, the youngest group of women, 18 to 24 years old, delayed their childbearing; their short-term expectations (1971–76) were not realized, but they made up enough births in the latter half of the decade to enable them to attain their lifetime birth expectations. In retrospect, the “failure” of birth expectations data to predict the “period” fertility downswing in the 1970s resulted not from poor predictions of married women, but rather from unanticipated marital and subsequent childbearing patterns of women who were single at the beginning of the decade. The authors conclude that birth expectations are useful predictors of completed cohort fertility, if adjustments are made to incorporate changes in the proportions married within the birth cohort.     

Biosocial models of demographic behavior: An introduction

A workshop on biosocial models of demographic behavior was organized to provide information to members of the Social Sciences and Population Study Section (SSP), the group entrusted by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) with the responsibility for conducting the first level of peer review of demographic applications submitted to NIH for possible funding. Some of the variables studies by demographers are biological, e.g., fertility, fecundity, morbidity, and mortality, so demographers are not unaware of biological variables. However, they tend to treat biological variables as something to be explained by social, economic, and psychological factors rather than to be integrated into an explanatory paradigm. This workshop contains papers that focus upon various stages of the life cycle and explore the importance of biosocial variables in explaining selected aspects of human behavior.This introduction presents an overview of the topics covered by the authors of the papers presented and the workshop, and is based upon opening remarks at the DRG Workshop on Biosocial Models of Demographic Behavior, Bethesda, MD, 12 October 1994.     

Race, racial resentment, attentiveness to the news media, and public opinion toward the Jena Six

Objective. We outline the role of race, racial resentment, and attentiveness to news in structuring public opinion toward the prosecution of the Jena Six, the name given to six African-American high school students who beat a white student, five of whom were subsequently charged with attempted second-degree murder.Method. We rely on a telephone survey of 428 registered voters collected in the aftermath of the protests in Jena, Louisiana.Results. Public reactions were heavily filtered by race and associated with measures of racial resentment. African Americans followed news about the protests more closely, believed race was the most important consideration in the decision to prosecute, and believed the decision to prosecute was the wrong decision. Racially conservative white respondents were less likely to believe race was the most important consideration in the decision to prosecute and were more likely to believe that the decision to prosecute was the right decision. Consistent with theories of agenda setting and framing, attentiveness to the news influenced perceptions regarding the importance of race in the decision to prosecute but not whether the decision was the right decision.Conclusions. At least within the context of the Deep South, race and racial attitudes continue to be an important predictor of public reactions to racially charged events. Attentiveness to the news influenced the lens through which events were interpreted, but not perceptions of whether the outcome was the right decision.     

重构国家、重新引导国家权力

人们可以用"国家"这个概念指称很多不同的对象,因此,有效的国家理论必须包含多重维度,并且对不同类型的国家加以分别考察."资本主义国家"同样存在着不同的类型,例如资本主义类型的国家和资本主义社会的国家之间的区别.资本主义社会的国家指现代国家的所有形式和特点;而资本主义类型的国家则把资本积累作为占统治地位的社会逻辑.     

Gay Men's Knowledge of HIV Transmission and ‘Safe’ Sex: A Question of Accuracy

The study described in this paper is part of a project assessing the impact of the HIV epidemic on 535 men who have sex with men. These men were surveyed about their knowledge of HIV, their sexual practices, other issues concerning the transmission of HIV, and AIDS. This paper focuses on these men's beliefs about HIV transmission, their perceptions of the safety of a number of sexual and social practices, and the factors influencing these perceptions. The findings indicate, in general, that the men surveyed were moderately well informed about HIV transmission. Some twenty percent of the men were well-informed about both ‘safe’ and ‘unsafe’ sexual practices, a small number were ill-informed and the remainder, the majority, were well-informed about some aspects and ill-informed about others. The data suggest that information from the mainstream and gay press is not only differentially available but that information is processed and interpreted by the men in different ways. Variables which influence the manner in which information is interpreted are place of residence (locale), awareness of gay community posters and pamphlets, and the men's sexual practice; these are associated with cautiousness or rashness in the men's judgments of safety and risk.