The Terror(s) of our Time(s)

In the midst of an age of terror and counter-terror, this article seeks to better understand the current moment of terror by comparing and contrasting moments and epochs of terror throughout history. The paper asks: What do we mean by terror? How is it described, measured and experienced? Is the post-September 11 phenomenon something altogether new? Is the current terrorist threat unprecedented? To address these questions the paper explores the phenomenon which makes terrorism and terrorists possible: the very idea of terror itself. The paper identifies and joins some of the dots between terrors past and terrors present, from the terror of tyranny and totalitarianism to the terror of contemporary fundamentalist terrorism. In doing so it sheds light on how terror is conceived both as a tool and as something that is experienced. The paper raises questions of how or if the experience of terror has shifted across time and space. Ultimately, the paper seeks a better understanding of the current moment of terror and a better idea of what the future holds in store through a more holistic understanding of the experiences of terror(s) throughout the ages.     

CAN TRADE REALLY HURT? AN EMPIRICAL FOLLOW‐UP ON SAMUELSON'S CONTROVERSIAL PAPER

This paper investigates Samuelson's [Samuelson, P. A. “Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 2004, 135–46] argument that technical progress of the trade partner may hurt the home country. We illustrate this prospect in a simple Ricardian model for situations with outward knowledge spillovers. Within this framework Samuelson's Act II effects may occur. Based on industry level panel data for 17 OECD countries for the period 1973–2000 we show econometrically that the outflow of domestic knowledge via exports or foreign direct investment (FDI) to the rest of the world may have a negative impact on industry output in the home country. This is particularly so when exporting to technologically less advanced countries and, more specifically, China. (JEL F10, F11, F14, O30)     

A south in the north: emplacing the south in the American national myth

Sparked by the recent reinvigoration of the long-running debate over the competing ideological merits of nationalism and cosmopolitanism by leading Western philosophers, this article presents an argument as to how these two adversarial projects might be reconciled. In a review of both ideological perspectives, it is argued that neither paradigm is adequate in its own right, and that both contain potential dangers. However, both nationalism and cosmopolitanism entail important complementary aspects that are essential in bringing about a more stable and innocuous synthesis of the two projects.     

The publishing of recent economics Ph.D. recipients

We present publication data for recent graduates of 50 economics Ph.D. programs. The data show that publishing output is highly concentrated among graduates of the top programs; the top three programs, for example, generate more than 25% of aggregate publishing output in our sample. We use the data to construct a set of program rankings based on both per capita and aggregate graduate publication and a comparison of faculty performance to graduate performance. The graduate/faculty comparison reveals that programs may be identical in the output of their faculties but starkly different in the output of their graduates.     

How does the DerSimonian and Laird procedure for random effects meta-analysis compare with its more efficient but harder to compute counterparts?

The procedure suggested by DerSimonian and Laird is the simplest and most commonly used method for fitting the random effects model for meta-analysis. Here it is shown that, unless all studies are of similar size, this is inefficient when estimating the between-study variance, but is remarkably efficient when estimating the treatment effect. If formal inference is restricted to statements about the treatment effect, and the sample size is large, there is little point in implementing more sophisticated methodology. However, it is further demonstrated, for a simple special case, that use of the profile likelihood results in actual coverage probabilities for 95% confidence intervals that are closer to nominal levels for smaller sample sizes. Alternative methods for making inferences for the treatment effect may therefore be preferable if the sample size is small, but the DerSimonian and Laird procedure retains its usefulness for larger samples.     

Using multivariate time series methods to estimate location and climate change effects on temperature readings employed in electricity demand simulation

Long‐term historical daily temperatures are used in electricity forecasting to simulate the probability distribution of future demand but can be affected by changes in recording site and climate. This paper presents a method of adjusting for the effect of these changes on daily maximum and minimum temperatures. The adjustment technique accommodates the autocorrelated and bivariate nature of the temperature data which has not previously been taken into account. The data are from Perth, Western Australia, the main electricity demand centre for the South‐West of Western Australia. The statistical modelling involves a multivariate extension of the univariate time series ‘interleaving method’, which allows fully efficient simultaneous estimation of the parameters of replicated Vector Autoregressive Moving Average processes. Temperatures at the most recent weather recording location in Perth are shown to be significantly lower compared to previous sites. There is also evidence of long‐term heating due to climate change especially for minimum temperatures.     

Weighing Evidence “Steampunk” Style via the Meta-Analyser

The funnel plot is a graphical visualization of summary data estimates from a meta-analysis, and is a useful tool for detecting departures from the standard modeling assumptions. Although perhaps not widely appreciated, a simple extension of the funnel plot can help to facilitate an intuitive interpretation of the mathematics underlying a meta-analysis at a more fundamental level, by equating it to determining the center of mass of a physical system. We used this analogy to explain the concepts of weighing evidence and of biased evidence to a young audience at the Cambridge Science Festival, without recourse to precise definitions or statistical formulas and with a little help from Sherlock Holmes! Following on from the science fair, we have developed an interactive web-application (named the Meta-Analyser) to bring these ideas to a wider audience. We envisage that our application will be a useful tool for researchers when interpreting their data. First, to facilitate a simple understanding of fixed and random effects modeling approaches; second, to assess the importance of outliers; and third, to show the impact of adjusting for small study bias. This final aim is realized by introducing a novel graphical interpretation of the well-known method of Egger regression.     

So near yet so far: blocked networks,global links and multiple exclusion in the German–Polish borderlands

Abstract The building blocks of global society are conventionally thought of in terms of ‘flows’, ‘scapes’, ‘key nodes’, and ‘global cities’, to name a few. We rarely consider borders and border regions. However, state borders provide a crucial component of a globalizing society in transition. Exhibiting a structural ambivalence, borders can be seedbeds of cosmopolitanism, sites of cultural closure, or often both simultaneously. To understand cross‐border interaction we have to engage with a complex configuration of global and sub‐global dynamics. In this article I argue that borders are revealing analytical tools that must be included in any grounded theory of global change. I draw on fieldwork conducted in the German‐Polish border region, mostly in the German‐Polish twin city Guben/Gubin. Here we are confronted with the simultaneous processes of globalization, European integration and post‐socialist transformation.     

Measurement for evaluation

Problems of measurement in management science are discussed in the context of methods of evaluation. Different approaches to evaluation are compared in terms of the level of measurement required and the process of generating numerical values. It is suggested that the difficulties of measuring are not always appreciated and that soundly-based measures are products of theories developed and tested within a consensus on basic constructs. Conclusions are drawn for the practitioner to set his level of measurement in terms of consensual understanding and suggestions are made for research.