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821.
W. Tsay 《Econometric Reviews》1998,17(4):361-386
This paper provides the theoretical explanation and Monte Carlo experiments of using a modified version of Durbin-Watson ( D W ) statistic to test an 1 ( 1 ) process against I ( d ) alternatives, that is, integrated process of order d, where d is a fractional number. We provide the exact order of magnitude of the modified D W test when the data generating process is an I ( d ) process with d E (0. 1.5). Moreover, the consistency of the modified DW statistic as a unit root test against I ( d ) alternatives with d E ( 0 , l ) U ( 1 , 1.5) is proved in this paper. In addition to the theoretical analysis, Monte Carlo experiments show that the performance of the modified D W statistic reveals that it can be used as a unit root test against I ( d ) alternatives. 相似文献
822.
823.
Statistics and stained glass may seem an odd combination, but the windows of Gonville & Caius College, Cambridge, say otherwise. Anthony Edwards explains. 相似文献
824.
825.
Various results on sequential hypotheses testing are reviewed. Optimal stopping rules are related to a local measure of statistical information. In some cases, local information can be approximated by L-numbers discovered by Lorden, and simple rules based on these approximations are asymptotically optimal to better order than the cost for a single observation. 相似文献
826.
827.
Laurence A. Baxter Stephen J. Finch Frederick W. Lipfert Qiqing Yu 《Risk analysis》1997,17(3):273-278
Studies using regression techniques report their results using a variety of statistics. Evaluation of the consistency of findings, such as in a metaanalysis, requires calculating the statistical estimates of the effect reported in each study in a comparable manner. In this paper, we consider multiple linear regression, multiple Poisson regression, and logistic regression estimates. We present results that are needed to calculate, on a common basis, the slope of the regression function at a specified value, the elasticity function of the regression function at a specified value, the relative risk at a specified value, and the odds ratio at a specified value. We apply these results to studies of the association of daily mortality in an area to the daily air pollution level of ozone and PM10 . We calculate the estimated slope of the number of deaths per billion population associated with an increase of 1 ppb of ozone level in studies of daily mortality in three urban areas. These studies, in Los Angeles, New York, and St. Louis, produced very comparable results on a common basis, especially when compared to the coefficients as reported. We also calculated the estimated elasticity function of the daily mortality and daily PM10 level for eight areas and found that the elasticities varied within a factor of roughly two, much less than the variability in the coefficients as reported. 相似文献
828.
We present a method for estimating transmission matrices that describe the mixing and the probability of infection between age groups. Transmission matrices can be used to estimate age-dependent forces of infection in age-structured, compartmental models for the study of infectious diseases. We analyze the social network generated by the synthetic population of Portland and extract mixing patterns. Our results show that the mixing within the population consists of two groups, children and adults. Children interact most frequently with other children close to their own age, while adults interact with a wider range of age groups and the durations of typical adult contacts are shorter than typical contacts between children. Furthermore, the transmission matrix shows that children are more likely to acquire infection than adults. 相似文献
829.
W. Liu 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》1997,39(1):79-92
For the two-sided comparisons of several treatments with a control, a common statistical problem is to decide which treatments are better than the control and which are worse than the control. This paper studies a multiple three-decision procedure for this purpose, proposed by Bohrer (1979) and Bohrer et al. (1981), and provides tables of critical points to facilitate the application of the procedure. The paper defines a power function of the procedure, and tabulates sample sizes necessary to guarantee a given power level. It addresses the problem of optimal sampling allocation in order to maximize the power for a given total sample size, and considers generalization to the situation where the treatments might have unequal numbers of observations. 相似文献
830.
Kimberly M. Thompson Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens Mark A. Pallansch Olen M. Kew Roland W. Sutter R. Bruce Aylward Margaret Watkins Howard Gary James P. Alexander Linda Venczel Denise Johnson Victor M. Cáceres Nalinee Sangrujee Hamid Jafari Stephen L. Cochi 《Risk analysis》2006,26(6):1571-1580
The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes. 相似文献