Sample registration in India

India's ad hoc sample registration scheme for obtaining current estimates of rural birth and death rates for the whole country is being implemented quite rapidly. Five states have 140 sample units, and eleven states will have from 20 to 100 units in the study depending upon the stage of implementation by March, 1967.Essential elements of the project for each unit are: (1) continuous registration of vital events by a paid part-time local enumerator, (2) a six-month household survey to detect births and deaths which occurred during the previous six months, and (3) matching events from registration and surveys and field recheck of unmatched events to obtain the "best" count of real number of events. Preliminary results in a non-random sample indicate that the crude birth and death rates are around 37.1 and 15.7 per 1,000, respectively, for India's rural population, but these probably will be found to be on the low side.Most of the problems of implementation are operational or administrative rather than statistical: (1) For various reasons, some states are slow in agreeing to assume financial and other responsibilities for the scheme. (2) In many states, even after the scheme has been accepted, there are delays in recruiting the staff, training, and so forth. (3) The most serious problem in the whole project is maintaining control of field operations well enough at each stage to insure that prescribed instructions and methodology are being followed.Experience in India indicates that staged implementation of such projects is highly desirable when trained staff are limited. There still are a number of methodological problems which must be tested as the sample registration evolves. Sample registration is one of the first steps in the Indian program to. develop an adequate vital statistics system. Exploratory studies to measure completeness of civil registration are being done now in an effort to develop means of using civil registration data alone for measurement of vital rates.     

Report on matching procedures of a dual record system in the southern Philippines

There are generally three stages to the development of rules for matching vital events data from two sources covering the same population: (a) establishing a set of “true” matches and nonmatches; (b) determining the best tolerance limits for each single characteristic which might be used in matching; and (c) experimenting to determine the set or sets of characteristics and the weights to be used in classifying a pair of records as matched or nonmatched. Specific examples, based on early matching experiments with data from the dual record system of the Mindanao Center for Population Studies (MCPS), are presented. Successive application of different sets of characteristics (differential valence rule) to the remaining unmatched events produced an acceptable rule for matching in this study.     

THE IMPACT ON FAMILIES OF REPORTED CHILD ABUSE OR NEGLECT

In order to evaluate the impact upon children and families of reported child abuse and neglect and the subsequent interventions, the casenotes of a random sample of substantiated cases (N=151) dealt with by the South Australian child protection agency were searched. The goal was to identify information concerning service delivery and changes for family members in the ensuing six months. Results relevant to both of these are presented and evaluated. An important corollary finding of this work was the absence of detailed information about outcome in the casenotes. We argue that this absence of feedback to child protection workers and policy-makers is likely to have detrimental effects on both worker morale and the quality of the services provided.     

Railroad Construction and Antebellum Slave Prices*

Slave prices rose rapidly to historic highs in the late‐antebellum South. The boom in railroad construction in the South helps explain this large increase in slave prices. The economic connection between railroads and slave prices reconciles the views of traditional economic historians who thought slavery was economically irrational and the views of the new economic historians who have concluded that slavery was highly profitable. It was the massive public subsidies to railroads that explain it was public policy that provided the stimulant to slave prices, not the “peculiar” culture of the antebellum South or the planter efficient management of slave labor.     

The Effects of the Specialist Schools Education Policy on School and Post‐School Outcomes in England

We investigate the effects of the specialist schools policy, introduced in 1994 in England, on test scores and truancy for pupils during compulsory schooling. We also assess the effects on labour market status and post‐secondary test score performance. We use matching models and data from the Youth Cohort Surveys for pupils who left school in either 2002 or 2004. We find that the policy did raise test scores, as well as increase the probability of employment. The evidence on post‐secondary test scores is mixed insofar as the policy increased the number of A levels studied but reduced average points scores.     

Benefits of Model-based Drug Development: A Rigorous,Planned Case Study

Model-based drug development (MBDD) is useful to make better quantitative decisions within drug development. However, rigorous evaluation of the benefits has been scarce in the literature. In this study, we take a completed development program, retrospectively repeat it in a virtual setting using MBDD methodologies, and compare it to the traditional drug development process. The conclusion is that the use of MBDD could have facilitated more efficient use of resources.     

Adoptive and Nonadoptive Mother–Child Behavioral Interaction: A Comparative Study at 4 Years of Age

Comparable samples of low-risk adopted and non-adopted children and mothers were observed during three tasks at age 4 years. Quality of mother–child interactions, child level of functioning in four domains, and maternal parenting satisfaction and social support were assessed. Adopted children were as competent as non-adopted children on measures of developmental functioning. Both groups of mothers expressed high satisfaction and support as parents. However, ratings of child, maternal, and dyadic behavior when interacting were all lower for adoptive dyads than for non-adoptive dyads, and adoptive dyads with boys accounted for the maternal and dyadic group differences.     

A candidate-set-free algorithm for generating D-optimal split-plot designs

Summary.  We introduce a new method for generating optimal split-plot designs. These designs are optimal in the sense that they are efficient for estimating the fixed effects of the statistical model that is appropriate given the split-plot design structure. One advantage of the method is that it does not require the prior specification of a candidate set. This makes the production of split-plot designs computationally feasible in situations where the candidate set is too large to be tractable. The method allows for flexible choice of the sample size and supports inclusion of both continuous and categorical factors. The model can be any linear regression model and may include arbitrary polynomial terms in the continuous factors and interaction terms of any order. We demonstrate the usefulness of this flexibility with a 100-run polypropylene experiment involving 11 factors where we found a design that is substantially more efficient than designs that are produced by using other approaches.