OPTIMIRUS. Simulating Population Change in the Russian Far East

This article examines the population trends in the cities of the Russian Far East between the two census years 1989 and 2002. Three geographical models – Rank-Size Rule, Temperature per Capita and a simple gravity model – are used to describe the direction of these population trends. An economic efficiency function is constructed from the three models to simulate an ideal population distribution for the Russian Far East. The heart of the simulation is a conjugate gradient optimisation of the economic efficiency function. The results serve as an important backdrop to discussions of current population trends and serve as an important backdrop to discussions of current population trends and as basis for recommendations concerning future changes in the spatial distribution of population in the region.Mueller, K., et Bradshaw M. J., 2006. OPTIMIRUS. Une simulation des variations de population dans l’Extrême-Orient russe. Revue européenne de démographie, 22:105–126.     

College Smoking Policies and Smoking Cessation Programs: Results of a Survey of College Health Center Directors

Abstract

College students' cigarette smoking rose dramatically during the 1990s. Little is known about what colleges do to address the problem. Health center directors at 393 4-year US colleges provided information (response rate: 65.1%) about college policies addressing smoking and the availability of smoking cessation programs. Of the health center directors surveyed, 85% considered students' smoking a problem; yet only 81% of colleges prohibit smoking in all public areas and only 27% ban smoking in all indoor areas, including students' rooms in dormitories and in private offices. More than 40% of the respondents reported that their schools did not offer smoking cessation programs and that the demand for existing program was low. Colleges need to do more to discourage student tobacco use. Recommended actions include campus-wide no-smoking policies that apply to student residences and identification of new ways of providing smoking prevention and cessation services.     

Reduced Variation in Death Rates after Introduction of Antimicrobial Agents

There was a sharp, persistent drop in annual variation in life expectancy at birth in the United States between 1940 and 1950. To evaluate the possible relationship of this drop to the introduction of antimicrobial agents, we examined standardized death rates (SDR) and life expectancy (LE) in the United States and in England and Wales, both of which participated in the discovery and development of antimicrobials, especially penicillin, during this period. Annual variation in life expectancy and directly standardized death rates are measured as residuals from moving means. There were sharp drops in residual variation for males and females starting as early as 1944 in the United States and 1951 in England and Wales that persist to the present. The standard deviations of residuals dropped by 59–81% from before 1940 to after 1950 depending on sex, country, and SDR or LE. The timing and persistence of reduced annual variation indicates that antimicrobials contributed substantially to the change.     

Fertility differences in Peru: A reconsideration

Abstract In a series of articles by Stycos, Heer and W. H. James, predominantly Indian areas of Peru were reported to have significantly lower levels of fertility than the economically better developed Spanish-speaking areas. Heer and James reported similar findings for Bolivia and Ecuador as well as Peru.     

Using Household Expenditure to Develop an Income Poverty Line

Income and expenditure measures are commonly used to establish poverty lines representing, respectively, the availability of cash resources and the standard of living approaches to measuring the extent and composition of poverty. Using UK data we compare these two measures and show how they might be combined. Although overall poverty rates are similar whichever measure is used, the relativities they imply for different types of household differ considerably. There is little overlap between income and expenditure poverty and very few households are both income–and expenditure–poor. The concept of poverty as constraint on choice or constrained expenditure is then defined as the absence of spending on durable goods and luxury items. Using logistic regression, income thresh–olds associated with the observed levels of constrained expenditure are derived for different types of household. Assuming all income is spent, these thresholds define a poverty line below which expenditure is severely constrained. The extent to which social assistance rates limit or prevent household expenditure is also estimated. The method and the estimates illustrate the value of exploring the links between income and expenditure in the measurement of poverty, drawing attention to the limitations of the data, and identifying future research needs.     

Addressing the School-to-Prison Pipeline: Examining Micro- and Macro-Level Variables that Affect School Disengagement and Subsequent Felonies

Abstract

This study examines the School-to-Prison Pipeline (STPP) by identifying individual legal and extra-legal variables and school-level factors that predict juvenile/criminal justice involvement using 2006–2012 matched data from education and justice systems (n?=?21,457). The role of school disengagement is also assessed, measuring unexcused absences that follow suspensions in the previous academic year. For the court-involved subsample (n?=?7349), after controlling for student behavior, demographic, and school-level factors; extra-legal racial differences remain a significant factor in determining higher counts of felonies with African American and Multi-racial students at increased likelihood (1.65 and 1.86 times, respectively for the higher latent class) of juvenile/criminal justice involvement as compared with White students. And, although White students were found to either be more disengaged or equally disengaged when compared with students of color, sharp differences in criminal justice involvement and outcomes exist by race/ethnicity. These findings suggest that addressing the STPP will require future research and focus on more than individual-level behaviors (school disengagement and school-based offenses) and attention to the impact of extra-legal variables and systemic implicit bias.     

What Colleges Are Doing About Student Binge Drinking A Survey of College Administrators

Abstract

In 1999, the Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study surveyed 734 US college administrators to learn what colleges were doing to prevent binge drinking. Respondents rated the severity of student alcohol-abuse problems and described prevention efforts and institutional investments in prevention infrastructure. Prevention practices were widespread in the areas of general education about alcohol, use of policy controls to limit access to alcohol, restricting advertising at home-game sporting events, and allocation of living space to alcohol-free dormitories. Programming was less prevalent for more targeted alcohol education, outreach, and restrictions on alcohol advertising in campus media. Nationally, most of the surveyed colleges reported having a campus alcohol specialist, many had task forces, and about half were performing in-house data collection. Less common were program evaluations, community agreements, or neighborhood exchanges. Prevention practices varied with institutional characteristics and the surveyed administrators' perceptions of the severity of alcohol problems.     

Quality of life and charges in private old people's homes in Great Britain

Over half the residents in old people's homes in Britain have their fees wholly or partly paid from the public purse. Understandably, there is considerable concern that the fees charged should be reasonable in the light of the services and facilities provided. In a recent study, local authority registration officers attempted to relate important qualitative features of private homes to the fees they charged. Taken together, these features provide a measure of the quality of life in homes. Results indicate little relationship between the charges made by homes and the measures reflecting the quality of life for residents. On the other hand, however, it was evident that the quality of life was an important consideration when registration officers made an assessment of the reasonableness of charges in homes. In short, homes assessed as having reasonable charges received higher ratings on the qualitative features. Conversely, homes judged as charging too much were much more likely to be rated poorly.     

Estimates of Survival of Diabetics from Repeated, Independent Sample Surveys

Little is known about death rates among diabetic populations. The few prior estimates have used two data systems, usually a registry or a survey to identify diabetics and death certificates to identify deaths. In this research, the diabetic population aged 18–94 in 1996–1998 and those surviving in 2001–2003 were estimated from repeated cross-sectional surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Forward survival ratios were computed using a method developed for successive censuses and these were used to compute death rates. Nonlinear regression models for age-sex specific survival ratios were used to estimate parametric rates and thereby increase the accuracy of estimates. About 81.4 % (SE = 1.3 %) of diabetics survived 5 years, for an annual death rate of 41.1 per thousand (SE = 3.2). Among men survival was 84.7 % (SE = 2.1 %) with an annual death rate of 33.8 (SE = 4.9) per thousand; among women survival was 78.5 % (SE = 2.2 %) with an annual death rate of 48.1 (SE = 4.1) per thousand. Model estimates of mortality rates showed an odds ratio of 3.17 (95 % CI 2.64, 3.82) for each 10 year age interval and of 1.35 (95 % CI 1.02, 1.79) for women compared with men. Pooled annual samples, longer time intervals for survival, and parametric estimates of rates all help overcome the small numbers and large sampling variation of survey estimates of survival and mortality. Useful estimates of survival rates can be made from a single data system, a sample survey of the general population. This can be done for any condition where a respondent’s status at the earlier survey time is obtained at the later survey time. It could also be used to make estimates from periodic surveys for nations with limited information systems.