全文获取类型
收费全文 | 18365篇 |
免费 | 188篇 |
国内免费 | 1篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 2587篇 |
民族学 | 147篇 |
人口学 | 3054篇 |
丛书文集 | 23篇 |
理论方法论 | 1134篇 |
综合类 | 359篇 |
社会学 | 7736篇 |
统计学 | 3514篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 49篇 |
2022年 | 29篇 |
2021年 | 56篇 |
2020年 | 127篇 |
2019年 | 192篇 |
2018年 | 1851篇 |
2017年 | 1960篇 |
2016年 | 1277篇 |
2015年 | 168篇 |
2014年 | 247篇 |
2013年 | 1604篇 |
2012年 | 554篇 |
2011年 | 1373篇 |
2010年 | 1232篇 |
2009年 | 987篇 |
2008年 | 1017篇 |
2007年 | 1171篇 |
2006年 | 194篇 |
2005年 | 413篇 |
2004年 | 402篇 |
2003年 | 352篇 |
2002年 | 261篇 |
2001年 | 211篇 |
2000年 | 213篇 |
1999年 | 196篇 |
1998年 | 139篇 |
1997年 | 127篇 |
1996年 | 138篇 |
1995年 | 96篇 |
1994年 | 137篇 |
1993年 | 97篇 |
1992年 | 127篇 |
1991年 | 132篇 |
1990年 | 116篇 |
1989年 | 104篇 |
1988年 | 101篇 |
1987年 | 91篇 |
1986年 | 90篇 |
1985年 | 89篇 |
1984年 | 93篇 |
1983年 | 69篇 |
1982年 | 79篇 |
1981年 | 51篇 |
1980年 | 64篇 |
1979年 | 63篇 |
1978年 | 51篇 |
1977年 | 52篇 |
1976年 | 39篇 |
1975年 | 48篇 |
1974年 | 40篇 |
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
51.
This paper documents and analyzes how landholders managed to uplift status of their neighborhood from hazard land as designated by the 1978 master plan to a regularized residential settlement through land regularization in Dar es Salaam city. Specifically, explores policy framework governing land regularization and how the local community explored the opportunities it offers. Documents the local community planning and land regularization processes undertaken focusing on land use planning, drainage construction, and cadastral survey and discuses how financial resources were raised, trust was built as well as factors which sustained community involvement towards meeting their interests of securing tenure. The paper also, draws challenges facing land regularization policy and recommends areas for further interventions commensurate with the human dimension challenges in securing tenure.Underlying community involvement, those aspects of community, which have been connected to the idea of social capital namely existence of committed leadership in land development matters, embracing mechanism for participatory decision making process and educational background to local leaders were particularly important in determining success for the case. Others include economic ability to contribute, high proportion of landholder settlers, land conflict task force formulation, local consensus to solve commonly felt problems, existence of strong community organization, and unwritten norms put in place to regulate individual behavior in building construction. Weak legal recognition of informal settlement, lengthy and bureaucratic procedures in planning and approval of regularization plans, weak knowledge on land management matters, short-term title deeds with low financial betterments, political popularity are identified critical challenges.Some of recommendations put forward include formalization of the grass-roots role in decision-making, decentralizing some of land development control functions to sub-ward leaders and training the same in basic land management matters. Others include definition of norms; by-laws and government facilitation of informal land parceling. Besides community support should be sought so as to create partnership in the promotion of security of tenure in informal areas. The study concludes that, unless land development activities ongoing in informal settlements are closely monitored and regulated as the settlement grow, it will be too costly socially and economically to retrofit once the settlement have identified. 相似文献
52.
We employ vector autoregressive techniques to determine the current state of the labor queue. Unemployment rate differentials
have narrowed in recent years, potentially due to a change in the queue ordering, though a tight labor market and a stable
queue would yield similar results. We find no evidence that the queue ordering has changed, which brings into question the
resiliency of gains made by minority groups. We employ the same techniques to reveal the state of the queue across geographic
regions and find that substantial differences exist across regions, implying variation in the relative labor force status
of demographic groups. 相似文献
53.
Patrick J. Farrell Sarjinder Singh 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2005,47(3):375-383
In survey sampling, interest often centres on inference for the population total using information about an auxiliary variable. The variance of the estimator used plays a key role in such inference. This study develops a new set of higher‐order constraints for the calibration of estimators of variance for various estimators of the population total. The proposed strategy requires an appropriate model for describing the relationship between the response and auxiliary variable, and the variance of the auxiliary variable. It is therefore referred to as a model‐assisted approach. Several new estimators of variance, including the higher‐order calibration estimators of the variance of the ratio and regression estimators suggested by Singh, Horn & Yu and Sitter & Wu are special cases of the proposed technique. The paper presents and discusses the results of an empirical study to compare the performance of the proposed estimators and existing counterparts. 相似文献
54.
Philip L. H. Yu K. F. Lam S. M. Lo 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2005,168(3):583-597
Summary. Factor analysis is a powerful tool to identify the common characteristics among a set of variables that are measured on a continuous scale. In the context of factor analysis for non-continuous-type data, most applications are restricted to item response data only. We extend the factor model to accommodate ranked data. The Monte Carlo expectation–maximization algorithm is used for parameter estimation at which the E-step is implemented via the Gibbs sampler. An analysis based on both complete and incomplete ranked data (e.g. rank the top q out of k items) is considered. Estimation of the factor scores is also discussed. The method proposed is applied to analyse a set of incomplete ranked data that were obtained from a survey that was carried out in GuangZhou, a major city in mainland China, to investigate the factors affecting people's attitude towards choosing jobs. 相似文献
55.
A growing literature examines the empirical relationship between the joint reproductive preferences of marital partners and reproductive outcomes in Africa. Less explored is how spousal power in decision making may be influenced by lineage type. Using pooled data from Ghana, we investigate how lineage affects gendered reproductive decision outcomes and find some evidence that matrilineal women are more able than nonmatrilineal women to translate their reproductive preferences into action consistent with their goals. 相似文献
56.
Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced
times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the
probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of
destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory
has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces
a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when
the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian
framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends
at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data,
complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems. 相似文献
57.
Anand Singh 《Asian Ethnicity》2008,9(1):5-16
This paper is inspired by three issues, namely ongoing research on South Africans of Indian origin, the anecdotal evidence that accumulates through ongoing discussions on a casual level with such people and the increasing interest among researchers about how globalization and transnational movements are impacting upon identity formation among minorities who are seeking employment or a new life in the developed economies of the ‘big five’ English-speaking countries, i.e. the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK. It is in countries such as these that a third identity emerges and develops to instill a sense of triple identity. The information here suggests that, when people of Indian origin migrate to one of these countries, they continue to cling to South Africa because it is their country of birth, as well as to India, more for sentimental rather than practical reasons. The topic of this paper reflects a contemporary phenomenon not just among the Indians in South Africa, but also among other diasporas such as Chinese in Latin America, whose new and final emigration destination always seems to be the US. In addition, people of Chinese origin in the countries of Indochina, such as Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, experienced similar patterns of becoming diasporas in Europe, North America and Oceania in the 1970s. However, migration implores them to renegotiate their identities in order to adapt and settle in accordance with their newly adopted host territories. This gives rise to an identity that straddles three countries, which induces the need to examine new ways of identity building in a global transnational economy. 相似文献
58.
Cathy W. S. Chen F. C. Liu Mike K. P. So 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2008,50(1):29-51
To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models. 相似文献
59.
Michael S. Rendall Ryan Admiraal Alessandra DeRose Paola DiGiulio Mark S. Handcock Filomena Racioppi 《Statistical Methods and Applications》2008,17(4):519-539
In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument.
For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations
on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum
use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic
regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in
the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors
about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller
survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total
survey sample size. 相似文献
60.