Beta-Bernstein Smoothing for Regression Curves with Compact Support

ABSTRACT. The problem of boundary bias is associated with kernel estimation for regression curves with compact support. This paper proposes a simple and uni(r)ed approach for remedying boundary bias in non-parametric regression, without dividing the compact support into interior and boundary areas and without applying explicitly different smoothing treatments separately. The approach uses the beta family of density functions as kernels. The shapes of the kernels vary according to the position where the curve estimate is made. Theyare symmetric at the middle of the support interval, and become more and more asymmetric nearer the boundary points. The kernels never put any weight outside the data support interval, and thus avoid boundary bias. The method is a generalization of classical Bernstein polynomials, one of the earliest methods of statistical smoothing. The proposed estimator has optimal mean integrated squared error at an order of magnitude n ^−4/5, equivalent to that of standard kernel estimators when the curve has an unbounded support.     

Forecasting on British election night 1997

An account is given of methods used to predict the outcome of the 1997 general election from early declared results, for use by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in its election night television and radio coverage. Particular features of the 1997 election include extensive changes to constituency boundaries, simultaneous local elections in many districts and strong tactical voting. A new technique is developed, designed to eliminate systematic sources of bias such as differential refusal, for incorporating prior information from the BBC's exit poll. The sequence of forecasts generated on election night is displayed, with commentary.     

Marriage and Child Well-Being: Research and Policy Perspectives

Over the past decade, the linkages between marriage and child well-being have attracted the attention of researchers and policy makers alike. Children's living arrangements have become increasingly diverse and unstable, which raises important questions about how and why family structure and stability are related to child outcomes. This article reviews new research on this topic, emphasizing how it can inform policy debates about the role of marriage in reducing poverty and improving child outcomes. It also pays special attention to new scholarship on unmarried, primarily low-income families, the target of recent federal marriage initiatives, to appraise the potential contributions of family research to ongoing policy discussions.     

Labor‐Environmental Coalition Formation: Framing and the Right to Know1

This article examines the formation of a cross‐movement coalition between elements of the labor and environmental movements in New Jersey. We explain the successful formation and initial political campaign of the New Jersey Work Environment Council with an expansion of the theoretical perspective of frame analysis. We propose a model of a coalition collective action frame that offers several important insights into the active role coalition actors play in the construction of a common frame uniting union and environmental activists. Using qualitative data gathered from interviews, observations, and document analyses of two major campaigns, we argue that the coalition frame allowed new political opportunities to be created, leading to the establishment of the most sweeping right‐to‐know laws in the United States. We conclude the discussion of coalition framing by examining political constraints on the framing possibilities of coalitions, specifically by exploring how the discursive shift from the right to know to the right to act failed to expand the influence of the cross‐movement coalition as originally expected by its members.     

A reciprocal global education? Working towards a more humanizing pedagogy through critical literacy

Dehumanizing tendencies within the present neo‐liberal era provide the backdrop against which the authors have developed an 11‐year partnership in the Global South. The economic context encourages competition over community and, while portending to bring people closer together through technological advances, it only facilitates the flow of commerce and capital while stemming the movement of consumers and workers. The authors provide a nuanced historical perspective leading up to the neo‐liberal moment, which notices the emergence of patriarchy, Christianity, racism, and capitalism as particular forms of social control, oppression and dehumanization. Recognizing the constructed nature of these forms, the authors propose community, consciousness, and courage as liberating ways forward towards the creation of an alternative form – a more reciprocal global education. While documenting some of their 11‐year partnership, the authors reveal the contribution of the following theorists who have impacted their praxis: Paul Kivel (social service vs social change), Paul Farmer (charity vs development vs social justice approaches to ‘service’ work), and Paul Gorski (decolonizing intercultural education). The authors conclude by (re)examining their desire to resist neo‐liberal globalizing tendencies towards a more reciprocal global education which expands upon relationships built and focuses on a critical literacy approach though the use of culture circles.     

Carbon fluxes and nitrogen availability along an urban–rural gradient in a desert landscape

Urbanization is increasing in arid and semi-arid regions of the world and impacting native ecosystems through disturbance, climatic modification, and pollution deposition. Arid ecosystems often exhibit a mosaic of shrub/tree canopy covered and non-canopy covered patches that differ in elemental pools and processes. We measured belowground ecosystem attributes and processes in native Larrea tridentata {(D.C.) Cov} dominated communities along an urban–rural gradient in Phoenix, Arizona. Organic carbon (C), total nitrogen (N), and nitrate levels were significantly greater in the urban locations, but soil respiration rates (R_s) were higher at the rural sites. Urban sites exhibited no difference in R_s and N between the canopy and interplant patches while both the rural and suburban sites had significantly greater N and higher R_s under the canopy than in the interplant spaces. Soil respiration rates at the urban locations were not correlated with either soil moisture or temperature individually. These data suggest that urbanization has caused a disconnect of ecological pattern and processes in L. tridentata ecosystems within the urban setting such that water and N limitations no longer explain expected spatial R_s patterns, or elemental pools.     

Resilience and risk competence in schools: theory/knowledge and international application in project rebound

Despite a 50-year interdisciplinary and longitudinal research legacy--showing that nearly 80% of young people considered most "at risk" thrive by midlife-only recently have practitioners/researchers engaged in the explicit, prospective facilitation of "resilience" in educational settings. Here, theory/knowledge distinguishing and extending risk and resilience from its risk-based social history to resilience's normative occurrence leads to the first known international and prospective application of resilience in school-based drug education, Project REBOUND [resilience-bound]. It will be implemented as a controlled pilot study, first in Germany, then expand to the United States, as well as other parts of Europe. With evaluation occurring throughout, the goal is to enhance the quality of drug decisions among young people, as well as support their overall competence-based learning and development throughout school. With limitations and underlying psychological mechanisms discussed, it is concluded Project REBOUND offers promising potential for supporting positive drug decisions as well as youth learning and development.     

An exploration of Iranian communication to multiple target audiences

State-controlled media use similar message techniques to target specific publics that counterparts in democratic societies use. We explore talking points (attributes) and themes (frames) through content analysis in state-produced propaganda directed at two different audiences. Domestic and internationally targeted propaganda (N = 1491) from Iran regarding the issue of regional security was reviewed. Results indicated Iran emphasized different attributes and frames based on audiences. Themes about enemy correlated, and relationships between officials and themes were explored.