The continued lived experience of the unexpected death of a child

The purpose of this qualitative study was to further examine the lived experiences of families that faced the sudden loss of a child. Six mothers that had previously participated approximately 9 years ago in the study entitled "The Lived Experience of the Unexpected Death of a Child" were interviewed. All of the mothers were Caucasian and had achieved a high school or greater level of education. Taped interviews and field notes were transcribed for data display. Together, two raters completed data reduction and coding for theme identification and categorization. Six themes were revealed that described helpful coping behaviors used by the mothers: positive beliefs, faith beliefs, everlasting love, pleasant remembrances, social engagement, and staying connected. Two themes, avoidance and rumination, described the behaviors that did not help the mothers cope with their loss. Finally, answers to the questions regarding acceptance and healing time were also revealed.     

Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions

This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. The procedure is applied t o 10 macroeconomic variables and is shown to improve out-of-sample forecasts relative to univariate equations. Although cross-variable responses are damped by the prior, considerable interaction among the variables is shown to be captured by the estimates

We provide unconditional forecasts as of 1982:12 and 1983:3. We also describe how a model such as this can be used to make conditional projections and to analyze policy alternatives. As an example, we analyze a Congressional Budget Office forecast made in 1982: 12

Although no automatic causal interpretations arise from models like ours, they provide a detailed characterization of the dynamic statistical interdependence of a set of economic variables, information that may help in evaluating causal hypotheses without containing any such hypotheses.     

Developing a More Inclusive Social Identity: An Elementary School Intervention

School integration, stimulated by the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision, has influenced students' social and educational experiences. Drawing on practice and theory, we focus on strategies for improving intergroup relations. In a series of sessions over four-weeks, 830 first and second grade children participated in Green Circle program activities designed to widen their circles of inclusion to include people who are different from themselves. Although the intervention did not influence children's biases in sharing or how happy they would be playing with others who were different from themselves based on race, sex, and weight, it did lead them to be more inclusive in selecting their most preferred playmate. Implications for friendship development and improvement in intergroup attitudes are considered .

He drew a circle that shut me out- Heretic, rebel, a thing to flout. But love and I had the wit to win- We drew a circle that took him in.
                              —Edwin Markham (1936, p. 67)

     

The efficient estimation of tail probabilities for extremes of moving average processes using conditional simulation

This paper describes a conditional simulation technique which can be used to estimate probabilities associated with the distribution of the maximum of a real-valued process which can be written in the form of a moving average. The class of processes to which the technique applies includes non-stationary and spatial processes, and autoregressive processes. The technique is shown to achieve a considerable variance reduction compared with the obvious simulation-based estimator, particularly for estimating small upper-tail probabilities.     

Importance of the National Career Development Guidelines to School Counselors

This study surveyed the opinions of a national random sample of school counselors toward the importance of the elementary, junior high/middle, and high school competencies in the National Career Development Guidelines. The results of the study indicated that school counselors consider the career development competencies in the guidelines to be important to very important across the three levels.     

Horse Races,Governance and the Chance to Fight: On the Formation of Organizational Agendas

We consider the formation of issues on the organizational agenda of a manufacturing firm. We find that the patterns of issue formation vary markedly and we develop an analytic framework to examine a number of emerging, potentially ambiguous issues. We emphasize the importance to the organization of perceptions of collective freedom to construct an issue, the role of issue labelling and perceptions of emerging consensus over the construction of an issue. Jointly, these considerations affect whether an issue gains salience on the agenda and whether it is resolved constructively.