Options traders exhibit subadditive decision weights

Professional options traders priced risky prospects as well as uncertain prospects whose outcomes depended on future values of various stocks. The prices of the risky prospects coincided with their expected value, but the prices of the uncertain prospects violated expected utility theory. An event had greater impact on prices when it turned an impossibility into a possibility or a possibility into a certainty than when it merely made a possibility more or less likely, as predicted by prospect theory. This phenomenon is attributed to the subadditivity of judged probabilities.     

Narrative and its potential contribution to disability studies

This article seeks to expand our understanding of narrative and the analysis of stories researchers invite and collect in the domain of disability studies. What narrative inquiry is and various reasons why researchers might opt to choose to turn to narratives are highlighted. Painting with broad strokes, narrative analysis is then considered before a typology of different ways in which stories can be analysed is offered. Illuminated by the typology are two contrasting standpoints on narrative analysis (storyteller and story analyst) and three specific methods (structural, performative, and autoethnographic creative analytic practices) that each standpoint might use to analyse the whats and hows of stories. The article closes by suggesting that researchers might consider using a variety of analyses in order to assist us to understand the complexities of the social world in diverse ways.     

Carbon metabolism: Global capitalism,climate change,and the biospheric rift

There is widespread agreement in the natural sciences that observed increases in average global temperatures over the past century are due in large part to the anthropogenic (human generated) emission of greenhouse gases, primarily stemming from fossil fuel combustion and land use changes (e.g., deforestation). Many social processes have been identified for their contribution to climate change. However, few theoretical approaches have been used to study systematically the relations of the social with the biosphere. Our goal is to illustrate how the theory of metabolic rift provides a powerful approach for understanding human influence on the carbon cycle and global climate change. We extend the discussions of metabolism (the relationship of exchange between nature and humans) and metabolic rift to the biosphere in general and to the carbon cycle in particular. We situate our discussion of the metabolic rift in the historical context of an expanding, global capitalist system that largely influences the organization of human interactions with the environment. The general properties of a metabolic rift between nature and society include the disruption or interruption of natural processes and cycles, the accumulation of waste, and environmental degradation. Due to capitalism's inherent expansionary tendencies, technological development serves to escalate commodity production, which necessitates the burning of fossil fuels to power the machinery of production. As this process unfolded historically, it served to flood carbon sinks and generate an accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Technological “improvements” have actually increased the amount of resources used, since expansion in production typically outstrips gains in efficiency – a situation known as the Jevons paradox. The theory of the metabolic rift reveals how capital contributes to the systematic degradation of the biosphere.     

Estimating rates of population change for a neotropical parrot with ratio,mark-recapture and matrix methods

Robust methods for estimating rates of population change ( u ) are necessary for applied and theoretical goals in conservation and evolutionary biology. Traditionally, u has been calculated from either ratios of population counts (observed u or u obs ), or population models based on projection matrices (asymptotic u or u asy ,). New mark-recapture methods permit calculation of u from mark-resighting information alone (realized u or u rea ), but empirical comparisons with other methods are rare. In this paper, rates of population change were calculated for a population of green-rumped parrotlets ( Forpus passerinus ) that have been studied for more than a decade in central Venezuela. First, a ratio method based on counts of detected birds was used to calculate u obs. Next, a temporal symmetry method based on mark-recapture data (i.e. the u -parameterization introduced by Pradel, 1996) was used to calculate u rea . Finally, a stage-structured matrix model based on state-specific estimates of fecundity, immigration, local survival, and transition rates was used to calculate u asy . Analyses were conducted separately for females and males. Overall values of u from the three methods were consistent and all indicated that the finite rate of population change was not significantly different from 1. Annual values of u from the three methods were also in general agreement for a majority of years. However, u rea from the temporal symmetry method had the greatest precision, and apparently better accuracy than u asy . Unrealistic annual values of u asy could have been due to poor estimates of the transitional probability of becoming a breeder ( é ) or to a mismatch between the actual and the asymptotic stable stage distribution. In this study, the trade-off between biological realism and accuracy was better met by the temporal symmetry than the matrix method. Our results suggest that the temporal symmetry models can be applied with confidence to populations where less information may be available.     

Implementing the family preservation program: Feedback from focus groups with consumers and providers of services

There is a growing understanding that preventative child welfare efforts can be both more cost effective and are more desirable philosophically than strictly remedial programs. The Family Preservation Act provides funds to assist communities in strengthening and preserving at-risk families. In order to implement this program effectively, local communities must design new programs and procedures which will be both attractive to consumers and effective in meeting their needs. This study it identifies problems with contemporary child and family services and suggests solutions to those problems. This study uses a focus group format and presents ideas generated by those individuals who will be most directly affected by this legislation; front line service providers and service consumers. Several areas of weakness in the current service delivery system are identified, including bureaucratic barriers, limited resources, problematic consumer/provider relations and a range of collaborative issues, both within and between agencies and the communities they serve.     

Private Prisons in Public Discourse: Measuring Moral Legitimacy

New policies require legitimacy to survive. Prison privatization represents a policy challenged by initial perceptions of illegitimacy. In the 1980s, governments began to allow private firms to run correctional facilities, shifting an inherently coercive, traditionally governmental function—incarceration—to the private sector. With data from 706 articles in four major American newspapers spanning 24 years, this research uses Freudenburg and Alario’s concept of diversionary reframing to measure and track the moral legitimacy of prison privatization across time and place. Findings suggest that initially high levels of moral legitimacy facilitated some states’ adoption of private prisons, while initially low levels of moral legitimacy stunted the growth of privatization in other states. This study presents a novel way of measuring moral legitimacy, demonstrates how the concept may be used to help explain controversial public policy changes, and documents the cultural content of private prison debates in the United States.     

真言时刻——生态危机与当下资本主义制度批判

面对日益恶化的地球环境,我们应该考虑的问题不是距离地球变得无法生存还有多长时间,而是按照目前的恶化速度,距离地球环境达到不可恢复的崩溃点还有多久.阻止我们在崩溃点到来之前采取有力措施的不是技术问题而是政治-经济问题,也就是说,现行的资本主义经济体制在其本质上无法接受改善环境所需支付的经济成本,因此,不对现行经济体制进行批判就不可能解决生态问题.