Austin Turk,stratification reinforcers and reversals,and traffic ticket decisions by Boston police during April and May of 2001

Austin Turk theorizes that places in stratification hierarchies affect police–citizen encounters by reinforcing or reversing the positional authority of police officers. To this point, however, there have been only three direct tests of the stratification portions of Turk's theory. Two examined overt conflict and all represented Turk's concepts using aggregated measures. The results are mixed. The present research adds a fourth test to the stratification and policing literatures by examining the effects of aggregated as well as disaggregated measures of stratification reinforcers and reversals on traffic ticket decisions by Boston police officers during April and May of 2001. Net of important control measures, there is no support for Turk's theory using the aggregated stratification measures employed in previous research. However, support for Turk's theory is clearly visible when viewed through the lens of some of the disaggregated stratification measures advanced for the first time in present research. We conclude that more research is needed to determine whether stratification reinforcers and reversals are among the factors affecting people in police blue and the people they police, with a sustained focus on both aggregated and disaggregated measures.     

The Effects of the Registration System on the Seasonality of Births: The Case of the Soviet Union

Scientists study seasonality in order to understand the effect of environmental, biological, and social factors on demographic events. Poor data quality can also affect seasonal variation in mortality and fertility statistics. The influence of error on seasonal data becomes crucial as researchers analyze timing and spacing of events in time-series analyses. In this study we examine the reported number of births by month in the Soviet Union for 1950, 1955, and 1958–85. The lowest number of births has typically occurred in December, and the highest in January. This seasonal pattern is not consistent with any plausible biological or behavioural explanation. It is probably an artifact of attributing births that actually occurred during the preceding December or earlier, to January. This implies that Soviet statistical practice has not followed the stated policy of attributing births to the period (day, month, year) in which they occur. A substantial reduction between the 1950s and 1985 in the December-January peak in reported births implies marked improvement in Soviet vital registration statistics. The Soviet case shows that characteristics of the registration system can impart a particular seasonal pattern to demographic data. It also shows that officially prescribed procedures are not always followed in data generation, even in centrally planned economies. Researchers should carefully examine the quality of seasonal data before concluding that the data reflect real variations in demographic behaviour.     

Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia

We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of temperature, rainfall, and monsoon timing for migration. Only temperature and monsoon timing have significant effects, and these do not operate in the direction commonly assumed. Estimated effects vary according to individuals’ gender, membership in a farm household, and location. We also analyze climate effects on sources of household income, which highlights the multi-phasic nature of household responses. Results undermine narratives of a uniform global migratory response to climate change and highlight the heterogeneous use of migration as a response to such changes. By extending previous research on environmentally induced migration in Indonesia, we also highlight the sensitivity of estimates to alternative climate and migration measures.     

Estimation of the cumulative incidence function under multiple dependent and independent censoring mechanisms

Competing risks occur in a time-to-event analysis in which a patient can experience one of several types of events. Traditional methods for handling competing risks data presuppose one censoring process, which is assumed to be independent. In a controlled clinical trial, censoring can occur for several reasons: some independent, others dependent. We propose an estimator of the cumulative incidence function in the presence of both independent and dependent censoring mechanisms. We rely on semi-parametric theory to derive an augmented inverse probability of censoring weighted (AIPCW) estimator. We demonstrate the efficiency gained when using the AIPCW estimator compared to a non-augmented estimator via simulations. We then apply our method to evaluate the safety and efficacy of three anti-HIV regimens in a randomized trial conducted by the AIDS Clinical Trial Group, ACTG A5095.     

Social Competence in Preschool Children: Replication of Results and Clarification of a Hierarchical Measurement Model

This study tested assumptions and conclusions reached in an earlier confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) study of the social competence (SC) construct for preschool children. Two samples (total N = 408; a new Portuguese sample and one from US samples that had participated in the original study) contributed data. Seven SC indicators were tested for mean differences across age, sex, and sample. Significant sex differences were found for peer acceptance (favoring girls) and for initiating affectively neutral interactions (boys had higher rates), and the sex by sample interaction also was significant for initiating interactions (i.e., effect significant only in the Portuguese sample). In CFAs, the hypothesized structure of SC fits the data and was invariant across sample and age within sample in both measurement and structural tests. The model was invariant at the measurement level for sex within sample tests, but not at the structural level. The results replicate and extend understandings of SC reported in the original study.     

An Examination of the Relationship Among High School Size,Social Capital,and Adolescents' Mathematics Achievement

In an effort to enhance both adolescents' social capital and increase achievement, public school districts across the United States have created small high schools. Using data derived from a longitudinal and nationally representative study of U.S. high school students, the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002, results show that when adolescents' parents know their friends' parents math achievement is significantly predicted. This association, however, is nonsignificant when conditioned on standard measures of prior achievement and family background, among others. In addition, while this relationship is also strong and significant within small high schools, it, too, is eliminated when conditioned on select confounding variables. These findings are discussed in terms of current efforts to improve achievement through reductions in school size.     

Dyadic Analyses of Preschool‐aged Children's Friendships: Convergence and Differences between Friendship Classifications from Peer Sociometric Data and Teacher's Reports

Peer sociometrics and teachers' friendship reports were compared in 2179 preschool dyads. One hundred twenty of 306 reciprocated friend dyads from peer sociometric data were also identified as good friends by their classroom teachers, and 301 of 600 of non‐reciprocated dyads in peer data were named as friends by one or both classroom teachers (overall kappa = .16). Friendship classifications from both peer and teacher data had significant relations with variables relevant to peer interactions, social skills, peer acceptance, and teacher‐rated scales (six of seven tests significant for peer data; five of eight significant for teacher data). Multilevel analyses indicated that friendship status effects were not qualified by classroom‐level differences. Findings suggest that sociometric tasks can identify preschoolers' peer friendships and that the range of correlates may be broader in peer‐choice data than in teachers' friendship evaluations.     

Ethnophaulisms for Ethnic Immigrant Groups

Ethnophaulisms (Roback, 1944) are the words used as slurs to refer to ethnic immigrant outgroups. This article explores the effects of attributes of ethnic immigrant groups on the cognitive representations of these groups in ethnophaulisms and the effects of these cognitive representations on behavior toward these immigrant groups. The results of these analyses, based on archival data spanning a 150-year period of American history, provide a sobering picture of the cognitive representation of immigrants: a century and a half of thinking about smaller, less familiar, and more foreign ethnic immigrant groups in a simplistic and negative manner and a resultant tendency to exclude those immigrant groups from the receiving society. The implications of these results for theoretical approaches to intergroup perception and for immigration policy are considered.     

Assessing program impact using latent growth modeling: a primer for the evaluator

Latent growth modeling (LGM) has emerged as a flexible analytic technique for modeling change over time because it can describe developmental processes at both the inter- and intra-individual levels. The LGM method can also provide a means for testing the contribution of other variables in order to explain variability in growth trajectories. This paper didactically illustrates the use of LGM as an analytical tool in program evaluation. Specifically, a hypothetical evaluation of a high school drug prevention program was used to demonstrate: (a) how LGM can be used to assess the longitudinal impact of a prevention program by comparing treatment and control populations with respect to individual differences in initial status and in rate of change; and (b) how predictors of initial status (post-intervention) and growth selected on the basis of a particular program theory can be incorporated in the model to explain program impact. Some advantages and limitations of using LGM in program evaluation are highlighted.     

Strike Lengths: Correcting for Prestrike Announcements and the Ratio of Bargaining Size to Firm Size

Anticipating the duration of a labor strike can be vital for both sides of the dispute, as well as outside observers. The methods of a pair of studies using Canadian data are surveyed to analyze labor strikes in the United States from 1992 to 2008. Corrections are made for strikes with predetermined lengths (“one-day” strikes and the like), whose durations are more a function of the prior announcements than of other factors, such as number of employees striking and macroeconomic conditions. Strikes are found to be generally shorter when the striking unit represents a larger portion of the firm’s total workers, a proxy for its bargaining power. This ratio provides a better understanding of the strike dynamics (including expected length) than do sheer bargaining unit size or sheer firm size.