Evaluating the Move to a Linear Tax System in Germany and Other European Countries

This paper proposes a comparison of the results of tax policy analysis obtained on the basis of unitary and collective representations of the household. We first generate labour supplies consistent with the collective rationality, by use of a model calibrated on microdata as described in Vermeulen et al. [Collective Models of Household Labor Supply with Nonconvex Budget Sets and Nonparticipation: A Calibration Approach (2006)]. A unitary model is then estimated on these collective data and unitary and collective responses to a tax reform are compared. We focus on the introduction of linear taxation in Germany. The exercise is replicated for other European countries and other topical reforms. Distortions due to the use of a unitary model turn out to be important in predicting labour supply adjustments, in the design of tax revenue neutral reforms, and in predicting a reform’s welfare implications.

Community reactions to campaigns addressing crystal methamphetamine use among gay and bisexual men in New York City

Crystal methamphetamine (aka "crystal meth") use with high-risk sex has become an emerging health problem for gay and bisexual men in New York City since the late 1990s. Public health campaigns were eventually developed to encourage gay and bisexual men to avoid or reconsider using crystal meth. Reactions to three campaigns were measured with a cross-sectional survey administered in 2004. Among an ethnically-diverse sample of 971 gay and bisexual men, 61.8% reported seeing the campaigns. Those who reported ever using crystal meth, recent use, and recent use with sex were significantly more likely to have seen the campaigns. In general, white men, HIV-negative men, and men not currently using crystal meth responded more positively to the campaigns than their counterparts; yet, more men of color reported having discussions with partners and friends about their crystal use as a result of these campaigns. Implications for researchers and practitioners are discussed.     

The influence of faith‐based organisations on Australian social policy

This historical overview explores the crucial and changing relationships between faith‐based organisations and governments, not only in the implementation of social services but also in the formation of social policy. Historically Australian governments have left large areas of social provision to the non‐government sector. For example, income support for the unemployed was not taken up by governments until World War II and income support for sole parents remained largely a responsibility for non‐government organisations (NGOs) until the 1970s. Prior to governments taking responsibility for income support, most of these NGOs were religious organisations surviving on donations, philanthropic support and limited government funding. It is argued that the dominant, semi‐public role of religious organisations in service delivery and social policy formation is an important but largely overlooked aspect of the Australian historical experience.     

Conditional Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decision Making: The Case of WIPP

Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of risk curves representing percentiles of the probability distribution of the future frequency of exceeding specified consequence levels conditional on a set of hypotheses. The second case involves analyses that result in an interval of outcomes estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions. Both types of results are difficult to use because they are sometimes misinterpreted as if they represented the output of a full uncertainty analysis. In the first case, the percentiles shown on each risk curve may be taken at face value when in reality (in marginal terms) they are lower if the chosen hypotheses are conservative. In the second case, the fact that some segments of the resulting interval are highly unlikely—or that some more benign segments outside the range of results are quite possible—does not appear. Also, these results are difficult to compare to those of analyses of other risks, possibly competing for the same risk management resources, and the decision criteria have to be adapted to the conservatism of the hypotheses. In this paper, the focus is on the first type (conditional risk curves) more than on the second and the discussion is illustrated by the case of the performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. For policy-making purposes, however, the problems of interpretation, comparison, and use of the results are similar.     

A Bayesian analysis of directional data using the projected normal distribution

This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of the projected normal distribution, which is a flexible and useful distribution for the analysis of directional data. We obtain samples from the posterior distribution using the Gibbs sampler after the introduction of suitably chosen latent variables. The procedure is illustrated using simulated data as well as a real data set previously analysed in the literature.     

A NOTE ON AUSTRALIAN LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INEQUALITIES

In common with other advanced market economies, regional and rural communities in Australia have come under increasing economic and social stress. One manifestation of this phenomenon is the growing spatial inequalities in social and economic conditions. This paper briefly reviews the genesis of spatial inequalities and examines their consequences in the contemporary Australian political milieu. The discussion concludes with an analysis of the policy implications of these inequalities for local governments and communities in disadvantaged regional and rural areas.     

Consanguinity and child mortality: The risk faced by families

Previous research reveals that the characteristics and practices of a child's family are important determinants of its chances of surviving beyond childhood. This study investigates the effects of consanguinity on a family's odds of experiencing the death of a child in Pakistan, a society in which marriage among close relatives is common. Analysis of data from the 1991 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey reveals that first cousin marriages increase a couple's risk of enduring the death of one or more of their children. These couples are 1.18 times as likely to have a child die by its fifth birthday than couples not related by blood net of other factors associated with child mortality. Elimination of first cousin marriages would contribute to a modest decrease in the proportion of Pakistani families suffering the death of a child.     

数字化操控时代的艺术作品

本文分析了计算机界面是如何组成和构造审美经验的,其出发点是本雅明的《机械复制时代的艺术作品》。文章先从细部讨论本雅明的膜拜价值和展示价值的观念,而后把数据库作为范式模型,勾勒出创建计算机对象的基本操作,最后解释为什么说数据库从本体论上把以展示价值为特征的现代艺术作品转变为以操控价值为特征的后现代艺术作品。