Arbitrator characteristics and arbitrator decisions

This study uses a sample of 459 arbitrators to investigate the effect of arbitrator characteristics on arbitrated decisions in discharge and suspension cases. Little evidence is found of significant relationships between the characteristics of arbitrators and their decisions. The results raise serious doubts about the usefulness of the common labor and management practice of investigating arbitrators’ backgrounds as part of arbitrator selection procedures. The author thanks Yonatan Reshef for comments on an earlier version of the paper and Jehad Haymour and Margaret James for research assistance.     

Adult sexual resocialization

This paper reports on an exploratory study of gay husbands. The social construction of reality framework is employed in addressing a central question: how do gay husbands structure a reality that allows them to solve their contradictory statuses? A four-cell typology is presented of husbands who participate in same-sex sexual behavior by living arrangement and occupational autonomy. Discussion follows on their lifestyles. Strategies of coping, career patterns of coming out, and processes of gay identity development are detailed. Major findings include: (1) gayness and traditional heterosexual marriage are discordant; (2) gay husbands achieve a sense of increased psychological well-being as their stigmatized careers progress. Analysis of the changes in the respondents' lives indicates suggestions toward a theory of adult sexual resocialization.     

Correcting for ratio variable correlation: Examples using models of mortality

The major purpose of this paper is to examine one part of the ratio variable correlation problem, correlated denominators, using path models of young, middle-age, and older-age mortality, each with 11 sociodemographic and cause-of-death independent variables. The models are calculated using a traditional ratio approach and a residual variable approach for a sample of counties. The methodological discussion focuses on differences in coefficients for the two approaches in terms of significance, magnitude, and hypothesis support. It is concluded that the residual approach is worth pursuing as a viable statistical solution to the correlated denominators component of the ratio variable correlation problem.     

Prediction in linear mixed models

Following estimation of effects from a linear mixed model, it is often useful to form predicted values for certain factor/variate combinations. The process has been well defined for linear models, but the introduction of random effects into the model means that a decision has to be made about the inclusion or exclusion of random model terms from the predictions. This paper discusses the interpretation of predictions formed including or excluding random terms. Four datasets are used to illustrate circumstances where different prediction strategies may be appropriate: in an orthogonal design, an unbalanced nested structure, a model with cubic smoothing spline terms and for kriging after spatial analysis. The examples also show the need for different weighting schemes that recognize nesting and aliasing during prediction, and the necessity of being able to detect inestimable predictions.     

A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity

Summary.  The paper investigates the problem of determining patterns of criminal behaviour from official criminal histories, concentrating on the variety and type of offending convictions. The analysis is carried out on the basis of a multivariate latent Markov model which allows for discrete covariates affecting the initial and the transition probabilities of the latent process. We also show some simplifications which reduce the number of parameters substantially; we include a Rasch-like parameterization of the conditional distribution of the response variables given the latent process and a constraint of partial homogeneity of the latent Markov chain. For the maximum likelihood estimation of the model we outline an EM algorithm based on recursions known in the hidden Markov literature, which make the estimation feasible also when the number of time occasions is large. Through this model, we analyse the conviction histories of a cohort of offenders who were born in England and Wales in 1953. The final model identifies five latent classes and specifies common transition probabilities for males and females between 5-year age periods, but with different initial probabilities.     

UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA, 1950–89

Although the incidence of unemployment in Australia is well established, the causes of unemployment remain controversial. Various putative causes for unemployment exist, including the unemployment benefits system. The present study sought to estimate the impact of the generosity of Australian unemployment benefits on the measured unemployment rate of three recipient groups, single adult males over 21, married males, and married males with two children, for the period 1950 to 1989 inclusive. The results of this statistical exercise are largely consistent with similar work done in Australia and elsewhere; namely, that while unemployment benefits did increase the measured rate for unemployment during the period 1950 to 1989 to a statistically significant degree, other stronger influences on unemployment were evident.     

Cross‐Ethnic Equivalence of Socialization Measures in European American and African American Youth

We examined the cross‐ethnic equivalency of socialization measures developed primarily with European American families. Four aspects of measurement equivalence were assessed: conceptual, operational, scalar, and functional. Evidence of between—and within—group measurement equivalency of socialization measures was derived from youth reports of 500 European American and 134 African American individuals ages 10 to 18, using confirmatory factor analyses and item response theory analyses. Findings indicate that most individual indicators of socialization, with the exception of paternal psychological control and parent‐youth conflict, demonstrated cross‐ethnic equivalence. The findings also suggest that lax control is better represented as a multidimensional construct (leniency and laxness).