México's demographic transition: Public policy and spatial process

A logistic growth equation is used to model México's epidemiological and fertility transitions, creating variables used to model the spatial diffusion of demographic change across the states. Consistent with the goals of the Lázaro Cárdenas administration, the epidemiological transition unfolded uniformly across the states, accessible to rich and poor alike, but the urban-oriented family planning programs introduced by Luis Echeverria have favored elites, have diffused selectively, and have ensured that the burdens of the population explosion have borne down most heavily on the poor and the remote. Betsy Brewer, Cyprain Engwenyi, Mark Frank and Mark Frost also provided research assistance.     

Ideal bootstrap estimation of expected prediction error for k-nearest neighbor classifiers: Applications for classification and error assessment

Euclidean distance k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classifiers are simple nonparametric classification rules. Bootstrap methods, widely used for estimating the expected prediction error of classification rules, are motivated by the objective of calculating the ideal bootstrap estimate of expected prediction error. In practice, bootstrap methods use Monte Carlo resampling to estimate the ideal bootstrap estimate because exact calculation is generally intractable. In this article, we present analytical formulae for exact calculation of the ideal bootstrap estimate of expected prediction error for k-NN classifiers and propose a new weighted k-NN classifier based on resampling ideas. The resampling-weighted k-NN classifier replaces the k-NN posterior probability estimates by their expectations under resampling and predicts an unclassified covariate as belonging to the group with the largest resampling expectation. A simulation study and an application involving remotely sensed data show that the resampling-weighted k-NN classifier compares favorably to unweighted and distance-weighted k-NN classifiers.     

Hygiene and Biosecurity: The Language and Politics of Risk in an Era of Emerging Infectious Diseases

Infectious diseases, such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and avian influenza, have recently been high on the agenda of policy makers and the public. Although hygiene and biosecurity are preferred options for disease management, policy makers have become increasingly aware of the critical role that communication assumes in protecting people during outbreaks and epidemics. This article makes the case for a language-based approach to understanding the public perception of disease. Health language research carried out by the authors, based on metaphor analysis and corpus linguistics, has shown that concepts of journeys, pathways, thresholds, boundaries and barriers have emerged as principal framing devices used by stakeholders to advocate a hygiene based risk and disease management. These framings provide a common ground for debate, but lead to quite different perceptions and practices. This in turn might be a barrier to global disease management in a modern world.     

Implicit Race Attitudes Predicted Vote in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

In the week before the 2008 United States presidential election, 1,057 registered voters reported their choice between the principal contenders (John McCain and Barack Obama) and completed several measures that might predict their candidate preference, including two implicit and two self-report measures of racial preference for European Americans (Whites) relative to African Americans (Blacks) and measures of symbolic racism and political conservatism. Greater White preference on each of the four race attitude measures predicted intention to vote for McCain, the White candidate. The implicit race attitude measures (Implicit Association Test and Affect Misattribution Procedure) predicted vote choice independently of the self-report race attitude measures, and also independently of political conservatism and symbolic racism. These findings support construct validity of the implicit measures.     

The Effect of School Choice on Participants: Evidence from Randomized Lotteries

School choice has become an increasingly prominent strategy for enhancing academic achievement. To evaluate the impact on participants, we exploit randomized lotteries that determine high school admission in the Chicago Public Schools. Compared to those students who lose lotteries, students who win attend high schools that are better in a number of dimensions, including peer achievement and attainment levels. Nonetheless, we find little evidence that winning a lottery provides any systematic benefit across a wide variety of traditional academic measures. Lottery winners do, however, experience improvements on a subset of nontraditional outcome measures, such as self‐reported disciplinary incidents and arrest rates.     

Evaluating the Introduction of a National Minimum Wage: Evidence from a New Survey of Firms in Ireland

Abstract. In April 2000 the Irish government introduced a national minimum wage of IR£4.40 (€5.58) an hour. We use data from a specifically designed survey of firms to estimate the employment effects of this change. Employment growth among firms with low‐wage workers prior to the legislation was no different from that of firms not affected by the legislation. A more refined measure of the minimum wage, however, suggests that the legislation may have had a negative effect on employment for the small number of firms most severely affected by the legislation. However, the size of these effects is relatively modest.     

Developing integrated rural tourism: Actor practices in the English/Welsh border

This paper examines community attitudes and distinctive practices that shape local responses to integrated rural tourism (IRT) development in the lagging rural region of the English/Welsh border area. The focus is on how actors acquire attributes as a result of their relations with others and how these assumed identities are performed in, by and through these relations. The location of this lagging rural region is particularly interesting as it is divided by a national boundary which not only impacts on administrative, planning and tourism marketing structures, but also contributes to the construction of fluid place identities (Murdoch and Pratt, 1997 describe ‘fluid space’ as having ‘no fixed points of reference, no privileged points of view, simply a swirling, viscous, partially stable, partially enclosed movement of social entities’ (p. 64) that may be described as Welsh, English, or a mixture of both. In order to reflect the variety of opinions and concerns in the region, responses were drawn from different actor-groups: local businesses, resource controllers, gatekeepers, institutions, community members and visitors. Results indicate that, while most were in favour of a greater integration of tourism with actors' aspirations, local resources and activities, there was an element of longing for a deux ex machina to put in place real change in the region.     

Selecting a Portfolio of Technologies: An Application of Decision Analysis

The Department of Energy is faced with the critical and complex decision of selecting technologies for waste site remediation. This research focuses on developing a decision support tool which assists the decision maker to find an optimal portfolio. A portfolio consists of selecting the appropriate processes for a remediation site and, subsequently, selecting a technology for each process so that the decision maker's objectives are achieved. The measures supporting the objectives are risk, life-cycle cost, and time required for remediation. The model uses exponential attribute utility functions with an additive objective function. The model provides the decision maker with estimates of the cost and time distributions, and their associated utility. Cumulative frequency distributions illustrate the dominance of technology choices and the variance in the results. The model permits sensitivity analysis in the form of rainbow and tornado diagrams to display the effects of changes in the values of the input variables. Overall, the model provides a generic technology selection tool that can be used to make better informed decisions and may be easily manipulated to reflect changes in the remediation process.     

Does family support ensure the protection of children? Messages from child protection research

The history of child protection is, in many ways, a catalogue of changes arising from the political/professional interface tensions relating to a highly contentious area of public and professional policy. The latest contribution to this process is the Department of Health's 1995 publication Child Protection: Messages from Research. The overview of the studies recommends that there be a shift in resources and attitudes from an investigative approach to a family support perspective. Many local authorities have subsequently produced policies which will lead to referrals being recorded as ‘children in need’ rather than child protection. The ramifications of this change in approach are examined from the dual perspectives of policy and practice. The article suggests that while much of the change in emphasis is to be welcomed, the needs of the most severely abused children may be compromised by the new orthodoxy, as it is not based on the reality of the many problems encountered by children and professionals in child protection work. It is argued that a focus on practice issues needs to permeate all such documents. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.