Disasters and subjective assessments of recovery in the long run

Population and Environment - Researchers and policymakers often claim that harsh climate conditions intensify the risk of armed conflict by acting as a “threat multiplier.” Yet, new...     

A Mixture Model for Longitudinal Partially Ranked Data

This article discusses the use of mixture models in the analysis of longitudinal partially ranked data, where respondents, for example, choose only the preferred and second preferred out of a set of items. To model such data we convert it to a set of paired comparisons. Covariates can be incorporated into the model. We use a nonparametric mixture to account for unmeasured variability in individuals over time. The resulting multi-valued mass points can be interpreted as latent classes of the items. The work is illustrated by two questions on (post)materialism in three sweeps of the British Household Panel Survey.     

A COMPARISON OF ANALYSIS METHODS FOR LATE‐STAGE VARIETY EVALUATION TRIALS

The statistical analysis of late‐stage variety evaluation trials using a mixed model is described, with one‐ or two‐stage approaches to the analysis. Two sets of trials, from Australia and the UK, were used to provide realistic scenarios for a simulation study to evaluate the different methods of analysis. This study showed that a one‐stage approach gave the most accurate predictions of variety performance overall or within each environment, across a range of models, as measured by mean squared error of prediction or realized genetic gain. A weighted two‐stage approach performed adequately for variety predictions both overall and within environments, but a two‐stage unweighted approach performed poorly in both cases. A generalized heritability measure was developed to compare methods.     

法医样本有效追踪和处理

为了配合法庭受理过程中的DNA鉴定,法医样品整个处理过程必须被记录,且在误差允许的范围内按照规定被精确执行。因此,一旦获得犯罪现场样本或参照样本,应该将它们立刻分装并保存在适当的样品库中。为了能成功、准确地检测鉴定样本中的每个成分,每个存储管必须清晰可辨,以消除不正确的样品处理机会。二维条形码是一种常见、有效地标识样本的方法。因此,对于已实施定期冻融循环或者其监管链被移动的样品,保持其二维条形码的可读性是非常重要的。     

Frontline Farmers,Backline Sources: Women as a tertiary voice in climate change coverage

Gender meaning construction and interpretation, which suggest women's inferiority to men, is deeply rooted in social-cultural signs and codes drawn from traditional contexts. In Uganda, girls start to face this reality at an early age. Among low income earning families, very few are enrolled in school, thus as they grow up they suffer from invisibility created by low education and income levels. This paper notes how such gender realities in the media have been investigated in other parts of the world and that the general thesis has been that the media have “marginalized women in the public sphere.” Turning to the position of women as both sources and reporters, in Uganda this area of inquiry has been given little scholarly attention. To fill that gap, this essay draws upon feminist media theory to help contextualize findings obtained through content analysis (N = 671) data drawn from two Ugandan newspapers. Using climate change as a coverage issue, since 56 percent of women in Uganda are farmers, the results of this study show that the gender gap in Uganda is highly pronounced, with women as sources ranked third in importance after men and anonymous sources.     

Using stylized agent-based models for population–environment research: a case study from the Galápagos Islands

Agent-based models (ABMs) are powerful tools for population–environment research but are subject to trade-offs between model complexity and abstraction. This study strikes a compromise between abstract and highly specified ABMs by designing a spatially explicit, stylized ABM and using it to explore policy scenarios in a setting that is facing substantial conservation and development challenges. Specifically, we present an ABM that reflects key Land Use/Land Cover dynamics and livelihood decisions on Isabela Island in the Galápagos Archipelago of Ecuador. We implement the model using the NetLogo software platform, a free program that requires relatively little programming experience. The landscape is composed of a satellite-derived distribution of a problematic invasive species (common guava) and a stylized representation of the Galápagos National Park, the community of Puerto Villamil, the agricultural zone, and the marine area. The agent module is based on publicly available data and household interviews and represents the primary livelihoods of the population in the Galápagos Islands—tourism, fisheries, and agriculture. We use the model to enact hypothetical agricultural subsidy scenarios aimed at controlling invasive guava and assess the resulting population and land cover dynamics. Findings suggest that spatially explicit, stylized ABMs have considerable utility, particularly during preliminary stages of research, as platforms for (1) sharpening conceptualizations of population–environment systems, (2) testing alternative scenarios, and (3) uncovering critical data gaps.     

Household type and the demographic transition

Demographic transition theorists postulate a post-transition steady state predicated on the nuclear family. This study reveals that other family types—community and anomic/polygynous—will, if they persist, produce different steady states at higher levels of infant mortality and fertility. Only if family type changes as countries modernize will the transition theorists' post-transition steady state be achieved.