Risk return approach to product portfolio strategy

This article describes how a risk-return portfolio analysis, as originally developed in economics and finance, can be applied to product-line decisions. This approach uses direct estimates of return, and explicitly considers risk, or variation in return; most of the product portfolio models in use today forecast return by correlation, and lack explicit treatment of risk. The approach provides guidance for new product development activities as well as for allocating resources among a corporation's existing product lines. The article explains how organizations can apply this approach to their own product portfolio decisions, and includes a detailed example of how one company used this model.     

Information technology in banking

This paper argues that since the use of information is a fundamental part of all forms of activities, both corporate and private, throughout society the introduction of a new technology for using information inevitably has widespread effects. These effects are particularly far reaching in those service industries, such as banking, the very heart and essence of whose business is the handling of information.A review of the developments so far in the use of the new information technology in payment systems brings out the essential nature of its effects and shows the all-pervasive influence of the form and capability of the technology itself. It tries to illustrate where the benefits are derived and the nature of illusory gains and undesirable effects. An attempt is then made to derive an historical perspective.To try to anticipate future events, current trends in the technology and in the ways in which its use might change, are identified. The change in the technical means by which financial and other information-based services are delivered is seen to be salient feature of these developments and the important influence upon institutional relationships is discussed under the heading of the politics of the technology. Parallels in the introduction of other new technologies are drawn by way of illustration.The final part of the paper tries to develop a broader perspective and sketches out a longer scenario of the development of information technology indicating the major influence which this is likely to exert upon the development of society throughout the world.     

Suicide ideation among US college students. Associations with other injury risk behaviors

Suicide, the endpoint of a continuum that begins with suicide ideation, is the third leading cause of death among the US college-aged population. The first and second leading causes of death among this age group, unintentional injury and homicide, may also be linked to suicide ideation. We used data from the National College Health Risk Behavior Survey to examine the association between suicide ideation and injury-related behaviors among 18- to 24-year-old college students. Students who reported suicide ideation were significantly more likely than students who did not report considering suicide to carry a weapon, engage in a physical fight, boat or swim after drinking alcohol, ride with a driver who had been drinking alcohol, drive after drinking alcohol, and rarely or never used seat belts. Given this clustering of injury-related risk behaviors, college prevention programs should aim to reduce risks for injuries comprehensively, rather than addressing each risk behavior separately.     

An environmental life cycle optimization model for the European pulp and paper industry

Will paper recycling reduce the environmental impact of the European pulp and paper sector? If so, is maximal paper recycling the best policy to optimize the life cycle of the pulp and paper sector? We explore these questions using an approach that combines materials accounting methods and optimization techniques. Environmental impact data are inputs for a linear programming network flow model to find optimal configurations for the sector. These configurations consist of a mix of different pulping technologies, a geographical distribution of pulp and paper production, and a level of recycling consistent with the lowest environmental impacts. We use the model to analyse scenarios with different recycling strategies. Recycling offers a reduction in environmental impact in regions with a high population and a large production of paper and board products. Regions with a large production of graphic products should focus on cleaner virgin pulp production with energy recovery. We conclude that relocation of paper production also offers a reduction in environmental impact. However, the severe effects on the economy make this policy less attractive than a combination of recycling, cleaner pulp production and energy recovery.     

Chain migration through the social network: experience of labour migrants in Kuwait

Labour migration to the Gulf countries is predominantly contract based and a majority of workers fall below the salary ceiling necessary for sponsoring family members. Despite this, social networks have expanded in Kuwait, primarily in the form of sponsorship of additional labour migrants by those already in the country.
The objectives of the article are to describe how the process of arranging sponsorship works, to delineate the predictors of moving through a friend or relative, or arranging sponsorship for a subsequent labour migrant, and to assess the "multiplier" effect of the above process. The article is based on a survey among 800 South Asian skilled and unskilled male migrants, 200 each from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
About 34 per cent of all respondents moved through friends or relatives, 50 per cent through agents and 16 per cent through direct hiring or the government bureau. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the factors most likely to predict a move through the social network consisted of being a Pakistani or Indian, being a Muslim, and possessing some skills.
One-quarter of all migrants had arranged the visa for another migrant since they came to Kuwait. Logistic regression analysis showed the respondent's duration of stay in Kuwait to be an exceptionally important predictor for arranging sponsorship for an additional migrant.
Monthly income, being married and being a Muslim were also positively associated with arranging sponsorship. In terms of the multiplier effect, about 0.78 visas had been arranged per migrant. Pakistanis, who had the longest average duration of stay in Kuwait, arranged the maximum number (1.6) of visas on average.     

Homeless mothers and depression: misdirected policy.

This paper is a critique of recent service-intensive shelter programs for homeless mothers and the policies that underlie these shelters. We first document the process by which mental health problems and family homelessness became so closely but mistakenly linked. We then demonstrate empirically that shelter programs for homeless families nonetheless presume that mental health problems are part of the causal nexus of family homelessness and indiscriminately deliver mental health services to homeless mothers. Simultaneously, shelter programs encourage the isolation of their residents from what they presume to be their "problematic" social networks. We show that, while mental health services had little impact on depression levels among homeless mothers, isolation from social networks did increase depression among homeless mothers. Our findings suggest that policy should put more emphasis on rapid reintegration into the community through providing housing, and it should put less emphasis on providing services.     

Death at the border

"Debates about United States border control policies have generally ignored the human costs of undocumented migration. We focus attention on these costs by estimating the number, causes and location of migrant deaths at the southwest border of the United States between 1993 and 1997.... Deaths from hyperthermia, hypothermia and dehydration increased sharply from 1993 to 1997 as intensified border enforcement redirected undocumented migration flows from urban crossing points to more remote crossing areas where the migrants are exposed to a greater risk of death."     

Psychopathology in pathological gamblers seeking treatment

High rates of psychiatric symptoms have been reported in pathological gamblers. This study of psychiatric comorbidity in pathological gamblers is the first to use structured psychiatric interviews assessing DSM-III-R Axis I and II disorders. The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM III-R (SCID-P, SCID-II) was administered to 40 (25 male, 15 male) pathological gamblers seeking outpatient treatment in Minnesota for gambling, and 64 (41 male, 23 female) controls. High lifetime rates of Axis I (92%) but not Axis II (25%) psychopathology were found in pathological gamblers as compared to controls. No differences between male and female gamblers were found in rates of affective, substance use or personality disorders. Females had higher rates of anxiety disorders and histories of physical/sexual abuse. Possible associations between psychiatric disorders and pathological gambling are discussed along with gambler typologies and implications for future research.The authors wish to gratefully acknowledge the assistance of: Gary Christenson, M.D., Carol Peterson, Ph.D., William Meller, M.D., Thomas Mackenzie, M.D.     

Asymptotic properties of a generalized regression-type predictor of a finite population variance in probability sampling

A system of predictors for estimating a finite population variance is defined and shown to be asymptotically design-unbiased (ADU) and asymptotically design-consistent (ADC) under probability sampling. An asymptotic mean squared error (MSE) of a generalized regression-type predictor, generated from the system, is obtained. The suggested predictor attains the minimum expected variance of any design-unbiased estimator when the superpopulation model is correct. The generalized regression-type predictor and the predictor suggested by Mukhopadhyay (1990) are compared.