As the population clock winds down: Indicative effects of population ageing in Australia’s States and Territories

Among the more profound features of population ageing is its regionality. This regionality is particularly marked in Australia, where the timing and speed of ageing are occurring at substantially different rates by state and territory. The shift to natural decline is expected to create many social, economic and political predicaments where it is first experienced. In Australia, Tasmania will be the first to enter natural decline, followed soon thereafter by South Australia, but not for several years by the youngest states and territories. These diverging demographic forces will have many implications for the complex mixture of federal, state and local government that currently adjudicates over policy-making and implementation, especially concerning the collection of taxes, the distribution of the goods and services of the Welfare State, and a large element of fiscal redistribution. This paper provides an overview of demographic characteristics and dynamics by region, and examines their projected effects on three socio-economic indicators: educational demand, the labour market, and demand for Age Pensions. The changing demography will have both beneficial and adverse affects, and unless the profound regionality is soon understood and engaged with, currently older and younger states are likely to encounter not only diverging demographic forces, but also diverging fortunes.     

A Biodemographic Interpretation of Life Span

The life span of individuals and the life expectancy of the populations they comprise have always been topics of interest to scientists and the lay population. In modern times, forecasts of life span and life expectancy have become particularly important public policy issues because of their influence on the future solvency of age‐entitlement programs. The authors present a brief discussion of the origin of the notion of life span, discuss its relevance and importance in light of recent developments in the emerging field of the biodemography of aging, and explore the theoretical and biological forces that influence the duration of life of sexually reproducing species.     

Below-replacement fertility: Determinants and prospects in South Asia

Although 10 countries and two of China’s special administrative areas, totalling 1,528 million people or 44 per cent of Asia’s total population, are now characterized by fertility rates below long-term replacement levels, no such countries are yet found in South Asia. This paper first examines the characteristics of 12 Asian administrations with very low fertility at various stages of their fertility declines and then compares the findings with the present situation in three South Asian countries, Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. This allows a prediction of when the South Asian countries will reach replacement fertility in accord with the trends in two key criteria, the percentage of girls in secondary school and the infant mortality rate. These conclusions are then buttressed for each country by the findings of anthropological demographic research programs in which the authors were involved. The predictions are that all three countries will attain a total fertility rate of 2.1 within the next 30 years and that the UN2000 Revision of the medium population projection is plausible in that regard. However, the authors part company with the UN projection in their assessment that the nature of these societies means that they will all subsequently fall to still lower fertility levels.     

The Dimensionality and Gender Differential Item Functioning of the Mini Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (MiniAQLQ)

The present study investigated the factorstructure and item analysis of the Mini AsthmaQuality of Life Questionnaire (MiniAQLQ) in asample of 258 community-dwelling asthmaticadults between the ages of 16 and 87 years. The mean age was 56 years for males (N = 99) and50 years for females (N = 159). This studycompared the fit of three factor solutionsusing a maximum likelihood confirmatory factoranalysis. Based on the fit indices, supportwas found for a hierarchical factor structurewith a second-order factor of quality of lifeand four first-order factors of symptoms,activity limitation, emotional function andenvironmental stimuli. Given that the data fitan essentially unidimensional model, genderdifferential item functioning (DIF) wasexplored using Zumbo's (1999) ordinal logisticregression method with corresponding logisticregression effect size estimators. Aftermatching males and females on the underlyingvariable of quality of life, gender DIF wasfound on the cigarette smoke and weather or air pollution items. Thesefindings indicate that gender influences how anindividual endorses these particular items onthe MiniAQLQ.     

Subjective Well-Being: Revisions to Dynamic Equilibrium Theory using National Panel Data and Panel Regression Methods

This paper partly revises the dynamic equilibrium (DE) theory of subjective well-being (SWB), sometimes termed set point theory. Results from four national panel surveys show that correlations among measures of SWB diminish over time, and that the SWB set points of a minority of individuals substantially change. These results mean that DE theory requires revision to make it more dynamic and enable it to better account for medium term change in SWB. The paper identifies personality traits and life events associated with subsequent changes in SWB. Data come from German, British and Australian panel surveys in which SWB has been measured for between 9 and 20 years. Panel regression random and fixed effects models were used to analyse the data.     

The analysis of ordinal dispersion: A comparison of Leik's “D” with a variance formula

The frequency of ordinal data and the importance of attitudinal consensus in social research motivated Leik [Leik, R. L. (1966), Pacific Sociological Review 9, 85–90] to formulate a simple, effective measure of ordinal dispersion, but he did not provide a method for its statistical analysis, and its operational interpretation for nonextremal values is unclear. Leik's D is an equal-interval, “folded” scoring vector inner dot-product, scalar transformation of the vector of ordered relative frequencies. The folding point is the median category. The metric analog of D is the difference between the random variable's expected values above and below the median. An equal-interval, pure variance measure of ordinal dispersion is posited and compared to D. They correlate closely but not perfectly, and D has a serious problem when an extremal category has more than half the total cases. Both formulas are easily generalized to non-equal-interval scorings. A general linear model for categorical data permits easy statistical comparisons of D, but not the variance. D tends to underestimate the degree of significant dispersion in comparison to the variance formula, it is suggested.     

Homeless Youth: Patterns of Belief

Public policies, as Edelman (1977) has pointed out ‘rest on the beliefs and perceptions of those who help to make them’. Policy on youth homelessness is no exception. A full understanding of youth homelessness. it is argued, requires an understanding of the belief systems of those who define the problem and who shape policy. This paper reports the results of a study of the perceptions of policy makers and the providers of services to youth.     

Young on decisions concerning medical aid

Robert Young's recent article on the distribution of scarce medical resources suffers from inexplicitness concerning the foundations of his moral judgments.¹ The purpose of this note is to point out two related lines of thought which he ignores but which threaten to outflank his position.     

Barely managing: Attitudes of information technology professionals on management technique

This paper presents findings from exploratory research into the attitudes of information technology (IT) professionals about the role management has played or could play in computing activities. It also looks at the subsidiary questions of what might be desirable preparation of managers for directing IT professionals, what the barriers to this are, and how this preparation might be stimulated. The paper is based on in-depth, ethnographic interviews conducted in 2001 with 30 IT professionals from both public and private sectors in New Mexico.