A New Approach to Importance Sampling in Taylor’s Stochastic Volatility Model

This article presents the general analysis of finite high-dimensional integrals using the Importance Sampling (IS) in aim to the parameter estimation of Taylor’s stochastic volatility (SV) model. After we proceed to make an alternative derivation for Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS) in previous literatures, we propose a new approach to select the optimal parameters of sampler, which is called as Universal Importance Sampling (UIS). UIS minimizes the Monte Carlo variance and numerically performs at least the same accurately as the SIS algorithm, but the computational efficiency get greatly improved. We apply both methods and investigate the SV model on the data, then make comparisons of the results.     

Trends in Evolutionary Explanations for Human Male Same-Sex Eroticism: A Commentary on Riegel (2011)

Objectives: Riegel (2011) argued there is a moral panic surrounding the issue of male transgenerational eros in the West. In response, he offered a variety of contrasting perspectives, one being that such eros has an evolutionary basis. The present article offers commentary. Methods: I supplement his hypothesis with a review of seven related evolutionary hypotheses and then compare/contrast all eight. Results: All these hypotheses constitute a work in progress, which Riegel adds to by properly restricting evidence (e.g., cross-cultural) to male homoerotic type (i.e., transgenerational). Conclusions: Riegel contributes to addressing the moral panic, and his evidence-type matching, which is part of a new trend in this area, promises to improve validity.     

Patterns of Sensitivity to Parenting and Peer Environments: Early Temperament and Adolescent Externalizing Behavior

Although parenting behavior and friendship quality predict adolescent externalizing behaviors (EBs), individual differences in temperament may differentially affect susceptibility to these factors over time. In a multi‐method and multi‐informant study of 141 children followed prospectively from toddlerhood to adolescence, we tested the independent and interactive associations of age 3 reactive temperament (e.g., negative emotionality) and age 13 observed parenting (i.e., positive and negative behavior) and friendship (i.e., conflict and warmth), with multi‐informant ratings of age 15 aggression and rule‐breaking behavior. Negative parenting predicted growth in parent‐rated EB, but only for adolescents with early reactive temperament. Temperament did not affect sensitivity to positive parenting or friendship. Results are discussed in the context of differential susceptibility theory and intervention implications for adolescents.     

Children’s Disclosure of Sexual Abuse: A Systematic Review of Qualitative Research Exploring Barriers and Facilitators

This study evaluates and synthesizes qualitative evidence addressing factors affecting a child’s decision to disclose an experience of sexual abuse. Childhood sexual abuse is a devastating crime, with long-term negative impacts. Understanding the factors that affect a child’s decision to disclose is vital. Disclosure enables access to support and protection, both therapeutically and legally. A systematic review was conducted focusing on factors affecting a child’s decision to disclose an experience of sexual abuse. Seven studies were identified, quality appraisal undertaken, and meta-ethnography used to synthesize the studies. Six new super-ordinate themes were developed: Fear of what will happen; Others’ reactions: fear of disbelief; Emotions and impact of the abuse; An opportunity to tell; Concern for self and others; and Feelings toward the abuser. Themes indicated the importance of support, structure, and opportunity to facilitate disclosure and should be utilized by agencies to develop practices that facilitate disclosures.     

THE PARENTING EXPERIENCES OF MOTHERS WITH DISSOCIATIVE DISORDERS

This article presents a qualitative analysis of the experience of parenting of mothers with dissociative disorders. This analysis was performed to complement the quantitative analysis of problems of mothers with dissociative disorders that Benjamin, Benjamin, and Rind (1996) presented previously. They found that the functioning of these mothers, as well as their subjective experience of mothering, was poorer that that of either clinical or nonclinical control mothers. Our goal was to provide a clearer, richer picture of their problems in parenting. Using the mothers' own words, we describe how the five symptom areas of dissociation (amnesia, depersonalization, derealization, identity confusion, and identity alteration) impeded their parenting efforts. We conclude with a discussion of the necessity of addressing parenting in the treatment of client-mothers with dissociative disorders.     

Beta-Bernstein Smoothing for Regression Curves with Compact Support

ABSTRACT. The problem of boundary bias is associated with kernel estimation for regression curves with compact support. This paper proposes a simple and uni(r)ed approach for remedying boundary bias in non-parametric regression, without dividing the compact support into interior and boundary areas and without applying explicitly different smoothing treatments separately. The approach uses the beta family of density functions as kernels. The shapes of the kernels vary according to the position where the curve estimate is made. Theyare symmetric at the middle of the support interval, and become more and more asymmetric nearer the boundary points. The kernels never put any weight outside the data support interval, and thus avoid boundary bias. The method is a generalization of classical Bernstein polynomials, one of the earliest methods of statistical smoothing. The proposed estimator has optimal mean integrated squared error at an order of magnitude n ^−4/5, equivalent to that of standard kernel estimators when the curve has an unbounded support.     

Early Transition Stages and Heterogeneity in Criminal Careers among Young Offenders*

Dans cet article, nous examinons différents modèles de rapports avec les forces policières parmi des sous-populations hétérogènes de jeunes, dans les premiers stades de transition de leur carrière criminelle. Nous croyons que la recherche axée sur l'hétérogénéité et sur les premiers stades de la transition vers la criminalité peut nous renseigner sur les éléments de la dynamique comportementale - jusqu'ici ignorés - dans l'étude de l'apparition d'un comportement criminel et de sa persistance. À partir de données policières informatisées provenant d'une grande ville de l'ouest du Canada, nous utilisons certains modèles de survie basés sur des événements pour dégager des modèles d'apparition et de persistance de comportements criminels sur une période de six mois, dans les premiers rapports avec la police. Les résultats démontrent des modifications importantes à court terme dans le comportement criminel de sousgroupes de jeunes de niveaux différents. Certains semblent avoir un comportement criminel ponctuel, qu'ils abandonnent par la suite, tandis que d'autres continuent de se comporter en criminels, en augmentant la fréquence et le taux d'infractions. Toutefois, certains modèles hétérogènes existent au sein de ces sous-groupes de jeunes délin quants dans les premières phases de développement de la criminalité. We investigate distinctive patterns of police contacts among heterogeneous subpopulations of youths in the early transition stages of their criminal careers. We argue that research focussing upon heterogeneity and the initial transition stages of criminality can provide insights into behavioural dynamics previously overlooked in the study of the onset and development of criminal careers. Using computerized police archival data from a large western Canadian city, we employ event history survival models to estimate patterns of onset and persistence for delinquent careers over six-month intervals in the early stages of police contact. Our results provide strong evidence of meaningful short-term change in offending among multiple levels of youth subgroups. Some youths appear to offend only briefly and then desist, while others continue offending and at a higher rate. However, there also appear to be patterns of heterogeneity within as well as between these subgroups of young offenders during the early stages of criminal careers.